Polymarket，Pumpfun和ICO怀疑：模因硬币过山车？

Pump.Fun的ICO面临持怀疑态度，因为多余的赔率变化，引发了有关其1.3b美元目标和更广泛的模因硬币疯狂的疑问。是未来还是另一个泵和垃圾场？

Polymarket, Pumpfun, and ICO Doubts: A Meme Coin Rollercoaster?

Polymarket，Pumpfun和ICO怀疑：模因硬币过山车？

Pump.fun's ambitious ICO is generating buzz, but doubts are surfacing. Polymarket's prediction odds reflect growing skepticism. Can Pump.fun defy the odds and deliver on its promises, or is this another cautionary tale in the meme coin saga?

Pump.Fun雄心勃勃的ICO正在引起嗡嗡声，但怀疑正在浮出水面。多聚市场的预测赔率反映了日益增长的怀疑。泵。Fun可以违背赔率并兑现其承诺，还是这是Meme Coin Saga中的另一个警告性故事？

Pump.fun's ICO: A $1.3 Billion Gamble?

pump.fun的ICO：13亿美元的赌博？

Pump.fun, the Solana-based meme coin generator, is launching its PUMP token through an ICO. The goal? A cool $1.3 billion. They plan to sell 330 billion PUMP tokens at $0.004 each, representing 33% of the total supply. The aim is to build a social ecosystem to rival the likes of Meta, TikTok, and Twitch, rewarding users for attention. Ambitious, right?

基于Solana的Meme Coin Generator Pump.Fun正在通过ICO启动其泵令牌。目标？很酷的13亿美元。他们计划以每张0.004美元的价格出售3300亿美元的泵代币，占总供应量的33％。目的是建立一个社会生态系统，以竞争Meta，Tiktok和Twitch之类的人，从而奖励用户引起人们的关注。雄心勃勃，对吧？

Polymarket's Prediction: A Shift in Sentiment

聚合物的预测：情感转变

The decentralized prediction market Polymarket initially showed a 41% probability of the ICO selling out within the first hour. However, that number has since slipped to 38% just days before the July 12 launch. This dip suggests growing skepticism about Pump.fun's ability to maintain momentum, despite the hype. It seems the market isn't entirely convinced.

分散的预测市场多头市场最初显示ICO在第一个小时内售出的可能性为41％。但是，此后仅在7月12日启动之前的几天就将这个数字跌至38％。这种倾角表明，尽管炒作，但对泵的持怀疑态度越来越大。看来市场并不完全确信。

Hyperliquid's Take: A Glimmer of Hope?

超流动的看法：一线希望？

On the derivatives platform Hyperliquid, the PUMP-USD perpetual contract began trading on July 9 and quickly hit $30 million in volume. The token’s mark price on that platform reached $0.0056, nearly 40% above the official ICO price. This suggests some traders are bullish on PUMP, even before its official launch. Is this a sign of things to come, or just early speculation?

在衍生品平台超级流动式上，泵 - USD永久合同于7月9日开始交易，并迅速达到了3000万美元的数量。该平台上令牌的商标价格达到0.0056美元，比官方ICO价格高出近40％。这表明某些交易者甚至在正式发布之前就看好泵。这是即将发生的事情的迹象，还是早期的猜测？

ICO Restrictions and Tokenomics: The Fine Print

ICO限制和令牌学：精美的印刷品

Users from the U.S., UK, and European Union are blocked from the sale due to regulatory restrictions. All participants must complete KYC. The ICO runs until July 15 or until all tokens are sold. The funds raised will be used for livestreaming innovations, team expansion, and community incentives. Pump.fun is also exploring future utility for the PUMP token, including fee rebates and token buybacks.

由于监管限制，来自美国，英国和欧盟的用户被阻止了出售。所有参与者都必须完成KYC。 ICO一直持续到7月15日，或直到所有令牌出售为止。筹集的资金将用于直播创新，团队扩张和社区激励措施。 pump.Fun还正在探索泵代币的未来公用事业，包括费用回扣和代币回购。

Doubts and Debate: Is This a Pump and Dump?

怀疑和辩论：这是泵和垃圾场吗？

The lack of clarity on airdrops has led to criticism, with some calling the ICO a ‘great extraction,’ sidelining early adopters. With 50% of the supply unlocked in July and increasing to 70% by mid-2026, concerns about potential market saturation are valid. Considering about 50% of the supply will be unlocked in July. This will increase to 70% supply in mid-2026 when the team and existing investors begin unlocking their tokens.

缺乏对气水的清晰性导致了批评，其中一些人称ICO为“伟大的提取”，占据了早期采用者的位置。由于7月份解锁了50％的供应，到2026年中期增加到70％，因此对潜在市场饱和的担忧是有效的。考虑到约50％的供应将在7月解锁。当团队和现有投资者开始解锁其令牌时，这将增加到2026年中期的70％的供应。

The Broader Context: ICOs and Market Sentiment

更广泛的背景：ICO和市场情绪

While Pump.fun is not an ICO, it is hard not to consider whether the same negative sentiment exists. The market may feel the same way. According to reports, cryptocurrency bettors now estimate a 50% possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 during its September meeting.

虽然pump.fun不是ICO，但很难不考虑是否存在相同的负面情绪。市场可能会有同样的感觉。据报道，加密货币投注者现在估计，美联储在9月会议上首次降低利率的50％可能性。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up, It's Gonna Be a Ride

最终想法：扣紧，这将是一个旅程

The Pump.fun ICO is shaping up to be a wild ride. Will it defy the doubters and revolutionize meme coin launches, or will it become another cautionary tale? Only time will tell. One thing's for sure: keep your eyes peeled, your wits about you, and maybe a little bit of popcorn handy. This is crypto, after all!

泵。FunICO正在塑造成为狂野的旅程。它会反抗怀疑者并彻底改变模因硬币的发射，还是会成为另一个警告的故事？只有时间会证明。可以肯定的是：保持眼睛剥皮，对您的智慧，也许还有一点爆米花方便。毕竟，这是加密货币！