Polymarket，Pumpfun和ICO懷疑：模因硬幣過山車？

Pump.Fun的ICO面臨持懷疑態度，因為多餘的賠率變化，引發了有關其1.3b美元目標和更廣泛的模因硬幣瘋狂的疑問。是未來還是另一個泵和垃圾場？

Polymarket, Pumpfun, and ICO Doubts: A Meme Coin Rollercoaster?

Polymarket，Pumpfun和ICO懷疑：模因硬幣過山車？

Pump.fun's ambitious ICO is generating buzz, but doubts are surfacing. Polymarket's prediction odds reflect growing skepticism. Can Pump.fun defy the odds and deliver on its promises, or is this another cautionary tale in the meme coin saga?

Pump.Fun雄心勃勃的ICO正在引起嗡嗡聲，但懷疑正在浮出水面。多聚市場的預測賠率反映了日益增長的懷疑。泵。 Fun可以違背賠率並兌現其承諾，還是這是Meme Coin Saga中的另一個警告性故事？

Pump.fun's ICO: A $1.3 Billion Gamble?

pump.fun的ICO：13億美元的賭博？

Pump.fun, the Solana-based meme coin generator, is launching its PUMP token through an ICO. The goal? A cool $1.3 billion. They plan to sell 330 billion PUMP tokens at $0.004 each, representing 33% of the total supply. The aim is to build a social ecosystem to rival the likes of Meta, TikTok, and Twitch, rewarding users for attention. Ambitious, right?

基於Solana的Meme Coin Generator Pump.Fun正在通過ICO啟動其泵令牌。目標？很酷的13億美元。他們計劃以每張0.004美元的價格出售3300億美元的泵代幣，佔總供應量的33％。目的是建立一個社會生態系統，以競爭Meta，Tiktok和Twitch之類的人，從而獎勵用戶引起人們的關注。雄心勃勃，對吧？

Polymarket's Prediction: A Shift in Sentiment

聚合物的預測：情感轉變

The decentralized prediction market Polymarket initially showed a 41% probability of the ICO selling out within the first hour. However, that number has since slipped to 38% just days before the July 12 launch. This dip suggests growing skepticism about Pump.fun's ability to maintain momentum, despite the hype. It seems the market isn't entirely convinced.

分散的預測市場多頭市場最初顯示ICO在第一個小時內售出的可能性為41％。但是，此後僅在7月12日啟動之前的幾天就將這個數字跌至38％。這種傾角表明，儘管炒作，但對泵的持懷疑態度越來越大。看來市場並不完全確信。

Hyperliquid's Take: A Glimmer of Hope?

超流動的看法：一線希望？

On the derivatives platform Hyperliquid, the PUMP-USD perpetual contract began trading on July 9 and quickly hit $30 million in volume. The token’s mark price on that platform reached $0.0056, nearly 40% above the official ICO price. This suggests some traders are bullish on PUMP, even before its official launch. Is this a sign of things to come, or just early speculation?

在衍生品平台超級流動式上，泵 - USD永久合同於7月9日開始交易，並迅速達到了3000萬美元的數量。該平台上令牌的商標價格達到0.0056美元，比官方ICO價格高出近40％。這表明某些交易者甚至在正式發布之前就看好泵。這是即將發生的事情的跡象，還是早期的猜測？

ICO Restrictions and Tokenomics: The Fine Print

ICO限制和令牌學：精美的印刷品

Users from the U.S., UK, and European Union are blocked from the sale due to regulatory restrictions. All participants must complete KYC. The ICO runs until July 15 or until all tokens are sold. The funds raised will be used for livestreaming innovations, team expansion, and community incentives. Pump.fun is also exploring future utility for the PUMP token, including fee rebates and token buybacks.

由於監管限制，來自美國，英國和歐盟的用戶被阻止了出售。所有參與者都必須完成KYC。 ICO一直持續到7月15日，或直到所有令牌出售為止。籌集的資金將用於直播創新，團隊擴張和社區激勵措施。 pump.Fun還正在探索泵代幣的未來公用事業，包括費用回扣和代幣回購。

Doubts and Debate: Is This a Pump and Dump?

懷疑和辯論：這是泵和垃圾場嗎？

The lack of clarity on airdrops has led to criticism, with some calling the ICO a ‘great extraction,’ sidelining early adopters. With 50% of the supply unlocked in July and increasing to 70% by mid-2026, concerns about potential market saturation are valid. Considering about 50% of the supply will be unlocked in July. This will increase to 70% supply in mid-2026 when the team and existing investors begin unlocking their tokens.

缺乏對氣水的清晰性導致了批評，其中一些人稱ICO為“偉大的提取”，佔據了早期採用者的位置。由於7月份解鎖了50％的供應，到2026年中期增加到70％，因此對潛在市場飽和的擔憂是有效的。考慮到約50％的供應將在7月解鎖。當團隊和現有投資者開始解鎖其令牌時，這將增加到2026年中期的70％的供應。

The Broader Context: ICOs and Market Sentiment

更廣泛的背景：ICO和市場情緒

While Pump.fun is not an ICO, it is hard not to consider whether the same negative sentiment exists. The market may feel the same way. According to reports, cryptocurrency bettors now estimate a 50% possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 during its September meeting.

雖然pump.fun不是ICO，但很難不考慮是否存在相同的負面情緒。市場可能會有同樣的感覺。據報導，加密貨幣投注者現在估計，美聯儲在9月會議上首次降低利率的50％可能性。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up, It's Gonna Be a Ride

最終想法：扣緊，這將是一個旅程

The Pump.fun ICO is shaping up to be a wild ride. Will it defy the doubters and revolutionize meme coin launches, or will it become another cautionary tale? Only time will tell. One thing's for sure: keep your eyes peeled, your wits about you, and maybe a little bit of popcorn handy. This is crypto, after all!

泵。 FunICO正在塑造成為狂野的旅程。它會反抗懷疑者並徹底改變模因硬幣的發射，還是會成為另一個警告的故事？只有時間會證明。可以肯定的是：保持眼睛剝皮，對您的智慧，也許還有一點爆米花方便。畢竟，這是加密貨幣！