MSTR 股票、BTC Holdings 和 mNAV 弱点：深入剖析

分析 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的股票表现、比特币持有量及其 19 个月来最弱的 mNAV 的影响。

MSTR Stock, BTC Holdings, and mNAV Weakness: A Deep Dive

MSTR 股票、BTC Holdings 和 mNAV 弱点：深入剖析

MicroStrategy's (MSTR) valuation is now closely tied to its Bitcoin holdings, with its mNAV at a 19-month low. Let's break down the key factors influencing MSTR's stock performance.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的估值目前与其持有的比特币密切相关，其 mNAV 处于 19 个月低点。让我们来分析一下影响MSTR股票表现的关键因素。

The mNAV Premium Plunge

mNAV 高级暴跌

The multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) for MSTR has plummeted to 1.21x, a level not seen since early 2024. This means the stock's value is only about 21% higher than the company's Bitcoin treasury. Back in November 2024, MSTR traded at a 240% premium (3.4x NAV). This slide reflects recent stock weakness; Bitcoin is up 31% year-to-date, while MSTR shares are up only 13.3%. In short, buying Bitcoin directly would have outperformed owning MSTR stock this year.

MSTR 的市盈率与净资产价值 (mNAV) 已暴跌至 1.21 倍，这是自 2024 年初以来的最高水平。这意味着该股票的价值仅比该公司的比特币金库高出约 21%。早在 2024 年 11 月，MSTR 的交易价格就溢价 240%（3.4 倍资产净值）。这一下滑反映了近期股市的疲软；比特币今年迄今已上涨 31%，而 MSTR 股价仅上涨 13.3%。简而言之，今年直接购买比特币的表现将优于持有 MSTR 股票。

MSTR's Bitcoin Strategy: A Closer Look

MSTR 的比特币策略：仔细观察

Strategy Inc. holds approximately 640,000 Bitcoin, with its treasury valued at nearly $80 billion. While it paused Bitcoin buying for the first time since July, aligning with its fiscal quarter-end, the company emphasized this was a pause, not a change in direction. The firm continues to treat Bitcoin as its core reserve asset.

Strategy Inc.持有约64万枚比特币，其金库价值近800亿美元。虽然该公司自 7 月份以来首次暂停了比特币购买，与财政季度末保持一致，但该公司强调这是暂停，而不是方向的改变。该公司继续将比特币视为其核心储备资产。

Dividend Payouts and Capital Management

股息支付和资本管理

Despite halting Bitcoin purchases, Strategy distributed $140 million in dividend payments last week, covering its various preferred shares. This reflects a disciplined approach to managing cash flow and assets. The company has diversified its funding channels, issuing five types of preferred shares this year, with three of those share classes carrying a 10% annualized yield.

尽管停止了比特币购买，Strategy 上周还是派发了 1.4 亿美元的股息，涵盖了其各种优先股。这反映了管理现金流和资产的严格方法。该公司实现了多元化的融资渠道，今年发行了五种优先股，其中三种股票类别的年化收益率为10%。

Stock Performance and Market Sentiment

股票表现和市场情绪

MSTR stock rose 2.8% to $361 on Monday, bringing year-to-date gains to 25%. Even without new Bitcoin buys, market participants expected activity due to the firm's historical pattern. Executive Chairman hinted online that no purchases were coming, reinforcing the pause, which aligns with quarter-ends, showing planning. Moving forward, Strategy appears poised to resume accumulation when timing aligns with its broader capital strategy.

MSTR 股价周一上涨 2.8% 至 361 美元，今年迄今涨幅达到 25%。即使没有新的比特币购买，市场参与者也预计由于该公司的历史模式将会出现活动。执行主席在网上暗示不会有任何采购，这加剧了暂停，这与季度末一致，显示出计划。展望未来，当时机与其更广泛的资本战略相一致时，Strategy 似乎准备恢复积累。

Insider Activity and Dilution

内幕活动和稀释

Company insiders have been net sellers. Strategy board member Carl Rickertsen sold his entire stake ($10 million worth) this year, and founder Michael Saylor has likewise sold millions of dollars of MSTR stock over 2024. Combined with continuous share issuance, this has added supply to the market and likely contributed to the falling mNAV.

公司内部人士一直是净卖家。战略委员会成员 Carl Rickertsen 今年出售了他的全部股份（价值 1000 万美元），创始人 Michael Saylor 同样在 2024 年出售了价值数百万美元的 MSTR 股票。加上持续的股票发行，这增加了市场供应，并可能导致 mNAV 下降。

The Future of MSTR Stock

MSTR股票的未来

With the premium nearly gone, MSTR now behaves like a pure Bitcoin proxy. The stock is likely to track Bitcoin almost one-for-one, meaning upside now depends primarily on crypto gains, not the software business. Any recovery in MSTR stock price will depend on renewed crypto gains or improved business fundamentals.

随着溢价几乎消失，MSTR 现在的表现就像一个纯粹的比特币代理。该股可能几乎一对一地追踪比特币，这意味着现在的上涨主要取决于加密货币收益，而不是软件业务。 MSTR 股价的任何复苏都将取决于加密货币收益的恢复或业务基本面的改善。

Personal Take

个人看法

Given the current dynamics, MSTR stock is essentially a leveraged bet on Bitcoin. While the potential for significant gains exists if Bitcoin surges, the downside risk is equally substantial. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment horizon before diving in. As Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings surpass $134 billion, it underscores the immense potential and volatility in the crypto market, influencing MicroStrategy's performance.

鉴于目前的动态，MSTR 股票本质上是对比特币的杠杆押注。虽然如果比特币飙升，则存在大幅收益的潜力，但下行风险同样巨大。投资者在投入之前应仔细考虑自己的风险承受能力和投资期限。中本聪的持仓量超过 1340 亿美元，凸显了加密货币市场的巨大潜力和波动性，影响了 MicroStrategy 的业绩。

So, buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! It's going to be a wild ride, but hey, at least we've got Bitcoin to keep things interesting. Just remember to keep an eye on those mNAV values and maybe diversify a little, just in case.

所以，系好安全带，加密货币爱好者！这将是一次疯狂的旅程，但是嘿，至少我们有比特币来让事情变得有趣。请记住密切关注这些 mNAV 值，并且可能会稍微多样化，以防万一。