MicroStrategy 的比特币赌博：随着 BTC 下跌，估值受到批评

在比特币暴跌之际，MicroStrategy 的估值面临审查，引发了对指数退市和投资者情绪转变的担忧。他们的比特币策略是天才还是隐藏的风险？

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Gamble: Valuation Under Fire as BTC Declines

MicroStrategy 的比特币赌博：随着 BTC 下跌，估值受到批评

MicroStrategy's heavy investment in Bitcoin is under the microscope as Bitcoin's price fluctuates. This article explores the potential consequences of their strategy, including valuation concerns and potential index delisting.

随着比特币价格的波动，MicroStrategy 对比特币的巨额投资正受到密切关注。本文探讨了他们的策略的潜在后果，包括估值担忧和潜在的指数退市。

The Bitcoin Foundation Cracks

比特币基金会出现裂痕

MicroStrategy's valuation is heavily tied to Bitcoin's performance, holding over 640,000 BTC. The recent Bitcoin decline from its peak of $126,000 has put MicroStrategy under pressure, causing its asset base to shrink. The market implied Net Asset Value (mNAV) has collapsed, leading to devaluation and potential delisting.

MicroStrategy 的估值与比特币的表现密切相关，持有超过 640,000 枚比特币。最近比特币从 126,000 美元的峰值下跌，让 MicroStrategy 面临压力，导致其资产基础萎缩。市场暗示资产净值（mNAV）已经崩溃，导致货币贬值并可能退市。

Institutional Investors Reassess MSTR

机构投资者重新评估MSTR

With the rise of regulated Bitcoin ETFs, MicroStrategy's appeal as a Bitcoin proxy is fading. Investors are increasingly concerned about the company's debt-heavy, equity-diluted model. The stock's core reliance on Bitcoin, despite its software products, has become a nightmare for investors.

随着受监管的比特币 ETF 的兴起，MicroStrategy 作为比特币代理的吸引力正在减弱。投资者越来越担心该公司负债累累、股权稀释的模式。尽管该股有软件产品，但其对比特币的核心依赖已成为投资者的噩梦。

Delisting Fears and Forced Selling

退市恐惧和强制抛售

Index providers like MSCI are considering delisting Bitcoin-heavy firms like MicroStrategy. JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned of a potential delisting, triggering a drop in MSTR stock. Delisting could result in forced selling of approximately $9 billion worth of MSTR stocks, potentially causing significant fund outflows.

MSCI 等指数提供商正在考虑将 MicroStrategy 等以比特币为主的公司退市。摩根大通发出可能退市的警告，引发 MSTR 股票下跌。退市可能导致价值约 90 亿美元的 MSTR 股票被迫出售，从而可能导致大量资金外流。

The Kill-Switch: Acknowledging the Possibility of Selling Bitcoin

终止开关：承认出售比特币的可能性

In a shift from the "never sell" stance, MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le acknowledged the possibility of selling Bitcoin under specific crisis conditions. This "kill-switch" would be activated if the company's stock falls below net asset value (mNAV) and funding options disappear. As of late November 2025, mNAV hovered near 0.95x, approaching the 0.9x "danger zone."

MicroStrategy 首席执行官 Phong Le 改变了“永不出售”的立场，承认在特定危机条件下出售比特币的可能性。如果公司股票跌破资产净值（mNAV）并且融资选择消失，这个“终止开关”就会被激活。截至 2025 年 11 月下旬，mNAV 徘徊在 0.95 倍附近，接近 0.9 倍的“危险区”。

Valuation at Risk

估值风险

MicroStrategy's valuation is less appealing due to Bitcoin's volatility and delisting threats. Investors view MSTR as a wrapper around Bitcoin. A further Bitcoin tumble or failure to maintain index status could shrink its implied value. While an upside potential exists with a Bitcoin comeback, the chances seem slim.

由于比特币的波动性和退市威胁，MicroStrategy 的估值吸引力较低。投资者将 MSTR 视为比特币的包装。比特币进一步暴跌或未能维持指数地位可能会缩水其隐含价值。尽管比特币卷土重来存在上行潜力，但机会似乎很小。

Peter Schiff's Prediction: More Pain Ahead?

彼得·希夫的预测：未来还会有更多痛苦吗？

Gold bug Peter Schiff predicts further Bitcoin crashes, contrasting it with the gains in gold and silver. Historical data suggests a potentially red December for Bitcoin if November closes in the red. However, potential Fed rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening could provide bullish catalysts.

黄金迷 Peter Schiff 预测比特币将进一步崩盘，并将其与黄金和白银的上涨进行对比。历史数据表明，如果 11 月收盘下跌，比特币 12 月可能会出现下跌。然而，美联储潜在的降息和量化紧缩的结束可能会提供看涨催化剂。

Conclusion: Doubling Down or Backing Up?

结论：加倍努力还是后退？

Investor confidence in MicroStrategy is shaken. Concerns about dilution and forced selling have contributed to its downfall. MicroStrategy's leadership remains committed to its Bitcoin strategy. The question is whether this conviction will hold or if investors will view MSTR as a high-risk stock. It's a wild ride, folks, so buckle up and enjoy the show! Who knows, maybe MicroStrategy will pull a rabbit out of its hat, or maybe Bitcoin will moon. Only time will tell, and that's what makes it so darn exciting!

投资者对 MicroStrategy 的信心动摇了。对稀释和强制出售的担忧导致了该公司的垮台。 MicroStrategy 的领导层仍然致力于其比特币战略。问题是这种信念是否成立，或者投资者是否会将 MSTR 视为高风险股票。伙计们，这是一次疯狂的旅程，所以系好安全带，享受这场表演吧！谁知道呢，也许 MicroStrategy 会变出一只兔子，或者比特币会登月。只有时间会证明一切，这就是它如此令人兴奋的原因！