宏观经济学家林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）预测，比特币将比目前的价格超过$ 85,000的2025

宏观经济学家林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）认为，比特币将在目前的85,00美元的价格上涨2025年，但表示美国政府最近的关税行动使可能更持久的轨迹陷入困境。

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden predicts Bitcoin will finish 2025 above its current price, but recent U.S. government tariff actions have dampened what could have been a more bullish outlook, Bloomberg reports.

宏观经济学家林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）预测，比特币将比目前的价格高2025，但最近美国政府的关税行动削弱了本来可以看出的前景。

Speaking on the April 17 episode of Coin Stories, Alden cited President Donald Trump’s February tariff announcement as a key factor holding back Bitcoin’s upside potential this year.

奥尔登（Alden）在4月17日的《硬币故事》（Coin Stories）发表的剧集中说，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的2月份关税公告是阻碍比特币今年的上升潜力的关键因素。

“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden said, adding that her guess is they end up “higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least.”

奥尔登说：“在所有这些关税kerfuffle之前，我的目标价值更高。”她补充说，她的猜测是，至少至少比我们现在，他们最终“在年底上都要高”。

Alden explained that a “massive liquidity unlock”—such as the U.S. Federal Reserve stepping in with quantitative easing or implementing yield curve control—could help Bitcoin approach more optimistic price levels. However, recent economic uncertainty and the threat of tariffs have dimmed that prospect.

奥尔登（Alden）解释说，“大规模的流动性解锁”（例如，美国美联储介入定量宽松或实施收益曲线的控制）可能会帮助比特币方法更乐观的价格水平。但是，最近的经济不确定性和关税威胁使这一前景黯淡。

“If we see the Fed get more involved in propping up the financial markets, and in particular if we see, like, a five-year period of poor stock market returns in the U.S., but good global liquidity, then I think Bitcoin could do okay in that scenario.”

“如果我们看到美联储更多地参与了支撑金融市场的参与，尤其是在美国看到五年的股票市场回报率五年，但是全球流动性良好，那么我认为在这种情况下，比特币可以做得很好。”

She added that if they encounter a five-year period like the pre-2008 financial crisis, where U.S. equities struggle but global liquidity remains strong, then Bitcoin could benefit.

她补充说，如果他们遇到了像2008年前的金融危机这样的五年时期，美国股票的挣扎，但全球流动性仍然强大，那么比特币就可以受益。

“If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the U.S. stock market doesn't do particularly well.”

“如果我们又遇到了这样的五年时期，那可能是比特币表现良好的时期，即使美国股票市场的表现不佳。”

Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading cuts both ways

比特币的24/7交易两种削减

Alden highlighted that Bitcoin’s always-on nature makes it more sensitive to market volatility compared to traditional financial assets. When traditional markets show signs of stress, Bitcoin often reacts ahead of the Monday open.

奥尔登（Alden）强调，比特币始终在持续的性质使其对市场波动更加敏感，而不是传统的金融资产。当传统市场表现出压力的迹象时，比特币通常在周一开放之前做出反应。

“Some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare for an open on Monday that is going to pour over into Monday’s price action in the U.S. markets.”

“一些资本池可以在周日出售其比特币，并准备在周一开放，这将涌入美国市场的周一价格行动。”

However, she believes Bitcoin could break away from traditional market indexes like the Nasdaq 100, especially in macroeconomic scenarios where U.S. equities face difficulties but global liquidity remains strong.

但是，她认为比特币可能会脱离纳斯达克100（Nasdaq 100）等传统市场指数，尤其是在美国股票面临困难但全球流动性的宏观经济方案中。

In her prior research, Alden described Bitcoin as a “Global Liquidity Barometer,” showcasing that it tracks the global M2 money supply direction 83% of the time on a 12-month basis. This positions Bitcoin above other assets like gold or U.S. stocks in terms of its correlation to global liquidity trends.

奥尔登（Alden）在先前的研究中将比特币描述为“全球流动性晴雨表”，表明它在12个月的时间内追踪了全球M2货币供应方向的83％。就其与全球流动性趋势的相关性而言，这将比特币置于其他资产之上。

At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $84,950, according to CoinMarketCap.

根据CoinMarketCap的数据，在发稿时，比特币的交易约为84,950美元。

Recently, we wrote that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged a second straight day of net inflows on Tuesday, signaling a potential shift in institutional sentiment.

最近，我们写道，现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）在周二连续第二天记录了第二天的净流入，这表明机构情绪可能发生了潜在的转变。

The post Macroeconomist predicts Bitcoin will finish 2025 higher despite tariff impact appeared first on Chain News.

宏观经济学家预测，尽管关税影响在连锁新闻上出现，但比特币将更高2025。