去年1月，当加密货币市场摇摆不定时，劳尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）对Solana（Sol）和Sui（SUI）的愿景大胆乐观地感到惊讶

去年1月，当加密货币市场动摇时，劳尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）对Solana（Sol）（Sol）和Sui（Sui）的愿景感到惊讶。

Last January, as the crypto market was showing signs of fatigue, Raoul Pal surprised everyone with his boldly optimistic vision for Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI).

去年1月，当加密货币市场表现出疲劳的迹象时，劳尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）以他对Solana（Sol）（Sol）和Sui（Sui）（SUI）的大胆乐观的愿景使所有人感到惊讶。

While the crypto winter was cooling enthusiasm and leading traders to prefer a cautious approach, the founder of Real Vision, counter to this collective wisdom, decided to bet on a bright future for these two altcoins. To fully decode this unique bet, we need to zoom in on the architecture of these blockchains. But first, let’s take a look at the technical and macroeconomic analysis that guided Pal.

尽管加密冬天的热情热情，并使交易者更喜欢一种谨慎的方法，但对这种集体智慧的创始人的创始人决定押注这两个Altcoins的光明未来。为了完全解码这个独特的赌注，我们需要放大这些区块链的体系结构。但是首先，让我们看一下指导PAL的技术和宏观经济分析。

Solana vs Sui: The Battle of Layer 1 Blockchains

Solana vs Sui：第1层区块链之战

Both Solana and Sui are establishing themselves as champions of Layer 1, boasting unique strengths. However, their architectures differ radically. Solana combines Proof-of-History and Proof-of-Stake, a combination that guarantees very high throughput and nearly symbolic fees.

索拉纳（Solana）和苏伊（Sui）都将自己确立为第1层的拥护者，拥有独特的优势。但是，它们的体系结构根本不同。索拉纳（Solana）结合了历史证明和验证证明，这种组合可以保证吞吐量很高和几乎象征性的费用。

Naturally, this setting is ideal for Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), which require fast transactions and low costs to operate efficiently. This explains the density of Solana’s ecosystem, which boasts over 900 projects and an active community.

自然，此设置非常适合分散融资（FAFI）和无杀菌令牌（NFTS），这些设置需要快速交易和低成本才能有效运营。这解释了Solana生态系统的密度，该生态系统拥有900多个项目和一个活跃的社区。

Yet, the shadow of network-wide failures still looms over Solana, a critical weakness that could limit its potential for broader adoption. In contrast, Sui is powered by a novel Byzantine Fault Tolerant consensus protocol, focusing more on security and scalability.

然而，整个网络失败的阴影仍然笼罩在索拉纳（Solana）上，这是一个关键的弱点，可能会限制其更广泛采用的潜力。相比之下，SUI由一种新型的拜占庭式容错共识方案提供动力，更多地关注安全性和可扩展性。

This choice makes Sui ideal for video games and Web3 applications, which demand high levels of complexity and a large number of users. However, Sui's still nascent ecosystem suffers from a lack of partners and developers—a final hurdle for broad adoption.

此选择使SUI非常适合视频游戏和Web3应用程序，这些应用程序需要高水平的复杂性和大量用户。但是，SUI仍然有新生的生态系统遭受缺乏合作伙伴和开发人员的困扰，这是广泛采用的最终障碍。

Given these distinctions, the duel promises to be exciting. Solana, launched in 2020, dominates the scene today with a mature ecosystem and a dense user base.

鉴于这些区别，决斗有望令人兴奋。索拉纳（Solana）于2020年推出，今天以成熟的生态系统和密集的用户群为主。

In the same vein, optimism for new highs on price charts often depends on the actions of major players like Cathie Wood's ARK Invest. As for their technical analysis, Solana is currently testing the 1.618 Fibonacci level, aiming for a move to 410.

同样，对新高价的乐观态度通常取决于Cathie Wood的ARK Invest等主要参与者的行动。至于他们的技术分析，Solana目前正在测试1.618斐波那契水平，旨在迁移到410。

But to reach this zone, Solana must first overcome the resistance at 250, a level last seen in November 2021. Maintaining this threshold will be crucial to envision a true breakout.

但是要到达该区域，索拉纳必须首先克服250的阻力，这是2021年11月最后一次出现的水平。保持这个阈值对于设想真正的突破至关重要。

On the other hand, younger Sui is betting on innovation with its unique features and potential for rapid development. Both respond to a specific need, and ultimately, both blockchain platforms should ideally coexist, each in its niche.

另一方面，年轻的Sui以其独特的特征和快速发展的潜力押注创新。两者都响应特定的需求，最终，两个区块链平台都应该在其利基市场中共存。

Now let's return to the optimistic predictions of economist and entrepreneur Raoul Pal, who is known for his bold market takes.

现在，让我们回到经济学家和企业家拉尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）的乐观预测，后者以其大胆的市场而闻名。

Earlier this year, as bitcoin was struggling to break through the $50,000 mark, Pal surprised everyone by already targeting $100,000 for the flagship cryptocurrency.

今年早些时候，随着比特币努力打破50,000美元的分数，PAL已经以100,000美元的旗舰加密货币为目标，这使所有人感到惊讶。

In January, during an interview on Real Vision, the founder of the eponymous financial platform, was already presenting a rather optimistic vision for the year, especially considering the gloomy predictions of most analysts at the time.

一月份，在对真实愿景的采访中，同名金融平台的创始人已经为当年提供了相当乐观的愿景，尤其是考虑到当时大多数分析师的阴暗预测。

While the market was still digesting the fallout of FTX and the crypto winter was continuing to cool enthusiasm, Pal, counter to this collective wisdom, decided to bet on a bright future for two altcoins in particular: Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI).

尽管市场仍在消化FTX的后果，而加密冬季仍在继续冷静的热情，帕尔，与这种集体智慧相反，决定押注两个尤其是两个Altcoins的光明未来：Solana（Sol）（Sol）（SOL）和SUI（SUI）（SUI）。

"I'm stupid bullish Solana in the long term," he admitted, already displaying his unique brand of optimism.

他承认：“从长远来看，我很愚蠢。”

His analysis, based on a logarithmic chart, identified a major resistance around $250, a level last reached in November 2021. For Pal, maintaining this threshold would be crucial to envision a true breakout.

基于对数图表，他的分析确定了250美元左右的主要阻力，该水平在2021年11月达到了。对于PAL，维持此阈值对于设想真正的突破至关重要。

"If it breaks the 1.618 Fibonacci, which is around $410, then it really starts to create a new bull market in a big, big way," he added, mentioning an ambitious target.

他补充说：“如果它打破了约410美元左右的1.618斐波那契，那么它确实开始以大而大的方式创造一个新的牛市。”

Since this prediction, the market has not followed the expected trajectory. Solana, which was trading around $216 in early January, underwent a severe correction, dropping to $95 before stabilizing around $150 today.

自从这一预测以来，市场尚未遵循预期的轨迹。索拉纳（Solana）在1月初交易约216美元，进行了严重的更正，下降到95美元，然后稳定在今天的150美元左右。

While the bullish scenario remains theoretically valid, the path looks steeper than expected.

虽然看涨的情况在理论上仍然有效，但道路看起来比预期的要陡峭。

As for Sui, the initial enthusiasm was just as striking. In January, as the crypto broke through resistance at $4.88 to reach a peak of $5.22, volumes tripled in 24 hours, exceeding $2.45 billion.

至于Sui，最初的热情同样令人震惊。一月份，加密货币打破了4.88美元的阻力，达到5.22美元的峰值，数量在24小时内增加了两倍，超过24.5亿美元。

"It feels like Sui is ready to enter hyperspace," Pal exclaimed excitedly, adding that "long-term investors might want to consider buying some of this new optimism and energy."

帕尔兴奋地喊道：“感觉就像SUI准备进入Hyperspace。”他补充说：“长期投资者可能想考虑购买一些新的乐观和精力。”

Yet, the breath quickly faded. SUI crypto slipped to $1.71 before rebounding to $3.45 today. Despite the recovery, the initial hype quickly burned out, and volatility has

然而，呼吸迅速消失了。 Sui Crypto在篮板上跌至今天3.45美元，降至1.71美元。尽管恢复了