全球流动性记录 - Bitcoin的下一步行动可能会震惊市场

自4月10日以来，比特币在全球流动性的重大突破驱动下增长了40％。

Global liquidity has reached a record high, and this could have a surprising impact on Bitcoin's next move, according to Bloomberg analyst Jamie Coutts.

据彭博分析师杰米·库特斯（Jamie Coutts）称，全球流动性达到了创纪录的高度，这可能会对比特币的下一步行动产生惊人的影响。

In a recent analysis, Coutts pointed out that the world's smallest cryptocurrency has surged by 40% since April 10. This rally began when his Global Liquidity Aggregate (GLI) index broke out to new all-time highs for the first time in three years.

在最近的一项分析中，库特斯指出，自4月10日以来，世界上最小的加密货币飙升了40％。这次集会始于他的全球流动性总数（GLI）指数在三年来首次脱颖而出。

What sparked this liquidity build-up? A rapid decline in the U.S. dollar was the main driver, kicking off a significant shift in global capital flows.

是什么引发了这种流动性积累？美元的迅速下降是主要的驱动力，这开始了全球资本流动的重大转变。

Since hitting breakout levels, GLI has advanced by an additional 2%. This aligns closely with Bitcoin's recent Q2 rally from the $48K range, where it encountered resistance throughout 2023.

自达到突破水平以来，GLI额外提高了2％。这与比特币最近的第二季度集会紧密相吻合，从$ 48K系列中，它在2023年都遇到了阻力。

"This price action is historically consistent with expanding liquidity regimes. For every 1% increase in global liquidity, we could see BTC experience price gains of >20%. But over time, the correlation diminishes as new drivers take over."

“这种价格行动在历史上与扩大流动性制度一致。对于全球流动性每增加1％，我们可以看到BTC的体验价格上涨> 20％。但是，随着时间的流逝，随着新驾驶员的接管，这种相关性会减少。”

Bitcoin's Sensitivity to Liquidity Remains High

比特币对流动性的敏感性仍然很高

While the correlation between Bitcoin and liquidity lessens over time, the crypto asset still reacts sharply to large-scale liquidity injections into the system.

尽管随着时间的流逝，比特币与流动性之间的相关性降低了，但加密资产仍然对系统中的大规模流动性注射急剧反应。

The chart shared by Coutts shows a close alignment between the GLI (white line) and Bitcoin's price (orange line), particularly during periods of macro expansion. It showcases how quickly crypto prices can move when liquidity is surging.

Coutts共享的图表显示了GLI（白线）和比特币价格（橙色线）之间的密切对齐，尤其是在宏观扩展期间。它展示了流动性飙升时加密货币价格的转移速度。

However, Coutts cautions that this model explains the ongoing capital flow into Bitcoin but doesn't factor in what he calls the inevitable "oh shit" moment—a global panic-driven rush into BTC.

但是，Coutts警告说，该模型解释了持续的资本流入比特币，但并没有考虑到他所说的不可避免的“哦，狗屎”时刻，这是全球恐慌驱动的奔向BTC。

"This phase, which will see an extraordinary widening of the market breadth as traders get desperate and institutions realize they're out of the trade, isn't here yet. But it’s coming."

“这个阶段，随着交易者变得绝望，机构意识到自己不在交易之外，这将使市场广度的范围越来越大。

As liquidity conditions improve and capital surges back into risk assets, we're likely to see extreme shifts in sentiment.

随着流动性状况的改善，资本涌入风险资产，我们很可能会看到情绪的极端转变。

"It will be best of times, it will be the worst of times," adds Coutts, highlighting the double-edged nature of rising liquidity. It fuels economic growth but also amplifies risk-taking behavior and emotional trading cycles in markets.

Coutts补充说：“这将是最好的时间，这将是最糟糕的时期。”它为经济增长提供了增长，但也扩大了市场中的冒险行为和情感交易周期。

With liquidity hitting fresh highs and Bitcoin reacting accordingly, market participants may be entering a highly reactive and fast-moving phase—one where opportunity and volatility go hand-in-hand.

由于流动性达到了新鲜的高点和比特币的反应，市场参与者可能会进入一个高度反应性和快速移动的阶段，一个机会和波动齐头并进。