各国采用比特币的博弈论

在周一发布的一份分析报告中，新兴加密货币研究公司 ASXN 通过博弈论的视角概述了全球比特币采用的动态。

An emerging crypto research firm, ASXN, has released an analysis on Monday examining the dynamics of global Bitcoin (BTC) adoption through the lens of game theory. The report, titled “The Game Theory of Bitcoin Adoption Among Nations,” provides an in-depth analysis of how nations can leverage mathematical game theory to strategically adopt Bitcoin.

一家新兴的加密货币研究公司 ASXN 周一发布了一份分析报告，通过博弈论的视角审视了全球比特币 (BTC) 采用的动态。这份题为“各国采用比特币的博弈论”的报告深入分析了各国如何利用数学博弈论战略性地采用比特币。

The analysis comes shortly after Donald Trump’s announcement at the Bitcoin 2024 conference regarding his plan to convert all BTC seized by the US government through enforcement actions into a “strategic Bitcoin stockpile.”

该分析是在唐纳德·特朗普在比特币 2024 会议上宣布他计划将美国政府通过执法行动扣押的所有比特币转换为“战略比特币库存”后不久发布的。

Bitcoin Game Theory Explained

比特币博弈论解释

The report begins by framing BTC adoption within the broader context of game theory, a discipline that evaluates the strategic decisions made by individuals or entities under conditions of uncertainty and competing interests. According to ASXN, “Game theory provides a structured framework to predict the outcomes of nation-level strategies in adopting digital currencies, taking into account not only the economic benefits and technological advancements but also the potential geopolitical shifts.”

该报告首先将比特币的采用置于更广泛的博弈论背景下，博弈论是一门评估个人或实体在不确定和利益竞争的条件下做出的战略决策的学科。 ASXN 表示，“博弈论提供了一个结构化框架来预测国家级战略采用数字货币的结果，不仅考虑到经济利益和技术进步，还考虑到潜在的地缘政治变化。”

The concept of ‘First Mover Advantage’ is applied in the analysis to highlight the benefits of early BTC adoption by nations. The report states, “Nations acting as first movers in the Bitcoin arena may set precedents in legal and regulatory frameworks, attract global crypto enterprises, and secure a significant share of the blockchain innovation landscape.”

分析中应用了“先发优势”的概念，以强调各国早期采用 BTC 的好处。报告指出，“在比特币领域充当先行者的国家可能会在法律和监管框架方面树立先例，吸引全球加密企业，并在区块链创新领域占据重要份额。”

However, these advantages are contrasted with the potential pitfalls of premature regulatory frameworks and the volatility of Bitcoin’s market value, which could pose substantial risks to national economies. The report adds, “Once a few influential nations adopt Bitcoin, others will follow suit to avoid being left behind – creating a bandwagon effect. This effect is driven by both the returns to adoption as well as the risks of non adoption. This is when the Bitcoin adoption cycle enters the steepest part of the s-curve.”

然而，这些优势与不成熟的监管框架和比特币市场价值的波动性的潜在陷阱形成鲜明对比，这可能给国民经济带来巨大风险。报告补充道，“一旦一些有影响力的国家采用比特币，其他国家就会效仿，以避免落后——从而产生跟风效应。这种效应是由采用的回报和不采用的风险共同驱动的。这是比特币采用周期进入 S 曲线最陡部分的时候。”

ASXN applies the ‘Payoff Matrix’—a fundamental tool in game theory—to dissect the decision-making process of countries considering Bitcoin adoption for nations. ASXN elaborates on how this matrix helps countries assess the potential returns and risks associated with various strategic choices. “Each nation faces a unique matrix based on its economic structure, political climate, and market dynamics. The optimal strategy, while generally skewing towards adoption due to the projected global ascendancy of cryptocurrencies, must still be tailored to individual national circumstances,” the report explains.

ASXN 应用“收益矩阵”（博弈论的基本工具）来剖析各国考虑采用比特币的决策过程。 ASXN 详细阐述了该矩阵如何帮助各国评估与各种战略选择相关的潜在回报和风险。 “每个国家都面临着基于其经济结构、政治气候和市场动态的独特矩阵。报告解释说，尽管由于预计加密货币将在全球占据主导地位，最佳策略通常会倾向于采用，但仍必须根据各个国家的具体情况进行调整。

Furthermore, the report also introduces the concept of the ‘Best Reaction Function’ in the context of Bitcoin adoption, explaining how nations develop strategies by anticipating the decisions of others. “A nation’s strategy is influenced not only by its direct gains from adopting Bitcoin but also by the expected actions of other nations, which might alter the global economic and technological landscape,” the report states.

此外，该报告还介绍了比特币采用背景下的“最佳反应函数”概念，解释了各国如何通过预测其他国家的决策来制定战略。报告指出：“一个国家的战略不仅受到采用比特币所带来的直接收益的影响，还受到其他国家预期行动的影响，这可能会改变全球经济和技术格局。”

The researchers add how the bandwagon effect could play out; “The logic plays out something like – Nation 1 assesses the cost benefit trade off and decides on adoption. Nation 1 realizes that all other nations are also going to choose adoption, Nation 1 concluded that, given that all nations will choose adoption, they should increase adoption speed so as not to lose competitive edge. Slowly, then all at once.”

研究人员补充了跟风效应如何发挥作用； “其逻辑类似于——第一国评估成本效益权衡并决定采用。国家 1 意识到所有其他国家也会选择采用，国家 1 的结论是，鉴于所有国家都会选择采用，他们应该提高采用速度，以免失去竞争优势。慢慢地，然后突然。”

Several real-world applications are used by ASXN to illustrate the theoretical concepts discussed. The case of El Salvador is examined in depth, showcasing how its early adoption has influenced other nations’ perceptions and strategies towards Bitcoin. The analysis extends to how Wisconsin’s pension fund investment in Bitcoin ETFs reflects a broader trend of sub-national entities assessing cryptocurrency as a viable component of their financial strategies, and the substantial commitment by MicroStrategy is highlighted as a corporate parallel to national strategies.

ASXN 使用几个实际应用来说明所讨论的理论概念。萨尔瓦多的案例得到了深入研究，展示了其早期采用如何影响其他国家对比特币的看法和战略。该分析延伸到威斯康星州养老基金对比特币 ETF 的投资如何反映了地方实体将加密货币评估为其财务战略的可行组成部分的更广泛趋势，并且 MicroStrategy 的实质性承诺被强调为与国家战略平行的企业。

Looking forward, the report discusses the potential future trajectories of Bitcoin adoption, influenced by both technological advancements and evolving geopolitical dynamics. It specifically addresses Robert Kennedy Jr.’s proposal at Bitcoin Nashville 2024 to acquire 550 BTC daily until the US amasses 4 million BTC, which represents 19% of the total available BTC supply. This approach aims to reflect the proportion of global gold reserves that the US currently maintains in comparison to other countries.

展望未来，该报告讨论了比特币采用的潜在未来轨迹，受到技术进步和不断变化的地缘政治动态的影响。它具体解决了小罗伯特·肯尼迪 (Robert Kennedy Jr.) 在 2024 年纳什维尔比特币大会上提出的每日购买 550 比特币的提议，直到美国积累 400 万比特币，占可用比特币总供应量的 19%。这种方法旨在反映美国目前所持有的全球黄金储备与其他国家相比的比例。

And the Bitcoin game theory is already playing out. “Whilst the ideas Trump presented at Bitcoin Nashville may or may not happen, the simple fact he publicly acknowledged Bitcoin & it’s properties is a win & we are already seeing early signs of the effects of this,” the researchers conclude.

比特币博弈论已经上演。研究人员总结道：“虽然特朗普在纳什维尔比特币大会上提出的想法可能会发生，也可能不会发生，但他公开承认比特币及其属性这一简单事实就是一场胜利，我们已经看到了其影响的早期迹象。”

They refer to Johnny Ng, a member of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, who has been advocating for the incorporation of Bitcoin into the city’s financial reserves following Trump’s announcement.

他们指的是香港立法会议员吴约翰尼(Johnny Ng)，在特朗普宣布这一消息后，他一直主张将比特币纳入香港的金融储备。

At press time, BTC trades at $66,660.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 66,660 美元。