由于 CPI 低于预期，美联储 9 月可能降息

继最近的就业报告和劳工统计局最新的消费者物价指数 (CPI) 数据之后，市场倾向于美联储在 9 月份降息。

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published its latest consumer-price index (CPI) report on Wednesday, revealing a 2.9% increase over the past 12 months through July, falling just short of economists’ 3% forecast. This data nudged CME futures metrics upward, reflecting growing market sentiment that the latest BLS figures strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

美国劳工统计局 (BLS) 周三公布了最新的消费者价格指数 (CPI) 报告，显示截至 7 月份的过去 12 个月内上涨 2.9%，略低于经济学家 3% 的预测。该数据推高了芝商所期货指标，反映出市场情绪日益高涨，认为美国劳工统计局的最新数据强化了美联储降息的理由。

Following the recent jobs report and the latest CPI figures from the BLS, the market is leaning toward a rate cut from the U.S. central bank in September. The CPI report highlighted that the “all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending July, the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021.” Despite this, inflation continues to hover above the U.S. central bank's 2% target.

继最近的就业报告和劳工统计局最新的消费者物价指数 (CPI) 数据之后，市场倾向于美联储在 9 月份降息。 CPI报告强调，“截至7月的12个月里，所有项目指数上涨2.9%，是2021年3月以来12个月涨幅最小的一次。”尽管如此，通胀仍徘徊在美联储2%的目标之上。

CME futures metrics show a 58.5% probability for a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate reduction, while a 50bps federal funds rate cut stands at a 41.5% chance. Lately, there's been a lot of chatter and forecasts suggesting that hopes for a soft landing may be misplaced, with a hard recession potentially looming. Meanwhile, some economists and analysts believe inflation is now a “nonissue.”

CME 期货指标显示，美联储降息 25 个基点 (bps) 的可能性为 58.5%，而联邦基金利率降息 50 个基点的可能性为 41.5%。最近，有很多讨论和预测表明，软着陆的希望可能是错误的，硬衰退可能即将来临。与此同时，一些经济学家和分析师认为，通胀现在“不是问题”。

In an interview with CNBC, Jim Baird, the chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, shared his perspective, stating, “At this point, the inflationary pressure that we saw build has really been dissipated significantly.” Baird emphasized, “There's this broad expectation that the worst is easily behind us.”

Plante Moran Financial Advisors 首席投资官吉姆·贝尔德 (Jim Baird) 在接受 CNBC 采访时分享了他的观点，他表示：“目前，我们看到的通胀压力确实已显着消散。”贝尔德强调，“人们普遍认为最糟糕的时期已经过去了。”

In a note shared with Bitcoin.com News, David Russell, the global head of market strategy at Tradestation, expressed his view that the inflation data strengthens the likelihood of a rate cut next month. “Today's CPI keeps the market on track for a potential rate cut next month,” Russell remarked.

Tradestation 全球市场策略主管 David Russell 在与 Bitcoin.com News 分享的一份报告中表示，通胀数据增强了下个月降息的可能性。 “今天的消费者物价指数使市场处于下个月可能降息的轨道上，”罗素表示。

“It was a little discouraging to see shelter tick back up after July's easing, but the trend toward lower inflation is intact. Getting the headline number under 3 percent for the first time in over 3 years was also an important milestone,” the Tradestation executive added.

“在 7 月份的宽松政策之后看到住房需求回升，有点令人沮丧，但通胀走低的趋势完好无损。 Tradestation 高管补充道，三年多来首次将总体数字控制在 3% 以下也是一个重要的里程碑。

What do you think about the latest inflation data and the chances of a Fed rate cut in September? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.

您如何看待最新的通胀数据以及美联储9月降息的可能性？在下面的评论部分分享您对此主题的想法和意见。

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