二重奏九号警告以太坊（ETH）正在“慢慢消亡”：原因如下

截至发稿时，在市值排名前 10 的加密货币中，以太坊 [ETH] 表现最差，资产损失约 24%

output: Among the top 10 largest cryptos by market cap, Ethereum [ETH] was the worst performer at press time, with the asset losing approximately 24% from its value over the past week compared to its counterparts.

产出：在按市值计算的十大加密货币中，以太坊 [ETH] 是表现最差的，与同类资产相比，该资产在过去一周的价值下跌了约 24%。

This decline has even extended to the asset’s past day performance which showed a drop of 3.9%.

这种下跌甚至延伸到了该资产过去一天的表现，下跌了 3.9%。

Analyzing Ethereum’s decline

分析以太坊的下跌

A respected figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sphere has raised alarms about Ethereum’s current trajectory, suggesting that the platform could be “slowly dying.”

加密货币分析领域的一位受人尊敬的人物对以太坊当前的发展轨迹发出了警告，暗示该平台可能正在“慢慢消亡”。

According to Duo Nine, Ethereum’s underperformance, especially when compared to Bitcoin and Solana, raises critical questions about its future viability.

根据 Duo Nine 的说法，以太坊的表现不佳，尤其是与比特币和 Solana 相比，引发了对其未来生存能力的关键质疑。

“When both Bitcoin and Solana outperform Ethereum, you got to ask yourself some serious questions,” Duo Nine commented, pointing to a disconcerting trend among Ethereum maximalists and developers who appear to be losing faith in the asset’s potential.

“当比特币和 Solana 的表现都优于以太坊时，你必须问自己一些严肃的问题，”九号组合评论道，并指出以太坊最大化主义者和开发商中出现了令人不安的趋势，他们似乎对该资产的潜力失去了信心。

The analyst attributes part of Ethereum’s struggles to what he terms the “XLM curse”—a situation where the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of a network do not translate into increased token value.

这位分析师将以太坊的困境部分归因于他所说的“XLM 诅咒”，即网络的效率和成本效益无法转化为代币价值的增加。

“If your network is fast & cheap, there is no reason for your token to pump,” he explained.

“如果你的网络又快又便宜，你的代币就没有理由暴涨，”他解释道。

The introduction of Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum has drastically reduced transaction costs, which, while beneficial from a technical standpoint, might not bode well for ETH’s market price. The reduced need for ETH as a gas token could diminish its relevance and value.

像 Arbitrum 这样的 Layer 2 解决方案的引入大大降低了交易成本，虽然从技术角度来看是有利的，但对 ETH 的市场价格来说可能不是一个好兆头。对 ETH 作为 Gas 代币的需求减少可能会降低其相关性和价值。

Furthermore, Duo Nine criticizes Ethereum’s economic model, which now sees an inflationary token supply to cover operational costs not met by transaction fees alone.

此外，二重奏九批评了以太坊的经济模式，该模式现在看到通货膨胀的代币供应，以覆盖仅靠交易费用无法满足的运营成本。

This, he argues, adds downward pressure on ETH's price.

他认为，这增加了 ETH 价格的下行压力。

“Demand for ETH is so low that they have to literally print tokens from thin air again,” he states, pointing to a positive inflation rate as a bearish signal for the asset.

他表示：“对 ETH 的需求如此之低，以至于他们不得不再次凭空印刷代币。”他指出，正通胀率是该资产的看跌信号。

“Why is this happening? Because Vitalik decided to scale ETH via L2s and made it extremely cheap in terms of fees. But there is a problem. You see, ETH is like oil, and now everyone is moving to an electric car. What’s the point of Ethereum then? As a network it will do just fine and thrive, but if they scale away from ETH as a gas token, its price will crash.”

“为什么会发生这种事？因为 Vitalik 决定通过 L2 来扩展 ETH，并使其费用极其低廉。但有一个问题。你看，ETH 就像石油一样，现在每个人都在转向电动汽车。那么以太坊还有什么意义呢？作为一个网络，它会表现得很好并且蓬勃发展，但如果他们不再将 ETH 作为 Gas 代币，那么它的价格就会崩溃。”

The competitive pressure from Solana and numerous other altcoins further complicates Ethereum’s position.

来自 Solana 和众多其他山寨币的竞争压力使以太坊的地位进一步复杂化。

The expert questions whether the massive reduction in fees was a strategic error, as maintaining demand sufficient to support the reduced fees is challenging and could ultimately place downward pressure on Ethereum’s price.

专家质疑大幅降低费用是否是一个战略错误，因为维持足以支持降低的费用的需求具有挑战性，并最终可能对以太坊的价格造成下行压力。

What does fundamentals suggest?

基本面表明什么？

In the broader market, Ethereum’s metrics provide a mixed picture.

在更广阔的市场中，以太坊的指标呈现出一幅好坏参半的景象。

The number of active addresses has fluctuated significantly. After seeing a surge to more than 455k addresses late last month, it experienced a higher surge to 467k on 3rd August, but it has now retraced down to 429k marking a slight increase from the 400k seen on 05th August. Such volatility in user engagement suggests that while the network remains active, user confidence could be waning.

活跃地址数量波动较大。在上月底激增至超过 455,000 个地址之后，8 月 3 日又出现了更高的激增，达到 467,000 个地址，但现在已回落至 429,000 个地址，较 8 月 5 日的 400,000 个地址略有增加。用户参与度的这种波动表明，尽管网络仍然活跃，但用户信心可能正在减弱。

On the financial side, Ethereum’s open interest, which represents the total outstanding derivative contracts, like futures and options that have not been settled, fell by 3.60% in just one day.

在金融方面，以太坊的未平仓合约（代表未结算的期货和期权等未结算衍生品合约总数）在一天内下跌了 3.60%。

Conversely, the open interest volume, indicating the total value of these contracts, saw a rise of 3.96%, suggesting a complex interplay of investment behaviors.

相反，未平仓合约量（表明这些合约的总价值）增长了 3.96%，表明投资行为存在复杂的相互作用。