与Cardano（ADA）相比

对于加密市场的惊人转变，分析师现在认为，原始模因硬币Dogecoin（Doge）在美国有更清晰的ETF批准的途径

In a surprising finding for the crypto market, analysts believe that Dogecoin (DOGE), the original meme coin, has a clearer path to a spot ETF approval in the U.S. than Cardano (ADA), a leading smart contract platform. The analysis highlights the complex and often counter-intuitive nature of the U.S. regulatory landscape for digital assets.

在对加密市场的一个令人惊讶的发现中，分析师认为，原始模因硬币Dogecoin（Doge）在美国获得了ETF批准的途径要比领先的智能合同平台（ADA）更清晰。该分析强调了美国监管格局用于数字资产的复杂且通常是反直觉的性质。

According to new data from Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas, the market is pricing in an 80% probability of a spot Dogecoin ETF approval in 2025, while Cardano’s odds sit slightly lower at 75%.

根据彭博情报分析师埃里克·巴尔库纳斯（Eric Balchunas）的新数据，该市场的定价为2025年的Dogecoin ETF批准的可能性为80％，而Cardano的赔率略低于75％。

Prob get some but hard to say how much and nothing will compare to bitcoin. We have a little saying on the team “the further away you get from btc, the less assets there will be”

可能会得到一些，但很难说出多少和什么都不会与比特币相比。我们对团队有一点说：“您远离BTC的距离越远，资产就越少”

This comes as the market turns its attention to which altcoins will follow Bitcoin and Ethereum in securing their own exchange-traded funds. When a market participant questioned whether altcoins like Solana would attract the same kind of capital inflow that Bitcoin did with its ETF launch, Balchunas responded some inflows are to be expected.

这是因为市场将其注意力转移到altcoins将跟随比特币和以太坊以确保自己的交易所交易资金的关注。当市场参与者质疑像Solana这样的AltCoins是否会吸引比特币在ETF发布时吸引相同的资本流入时，Balchunas会回应一些流入。

Dogecoin: On Relatively Firm Regulatory Ground

Dogecoin：在相对牢固的监管场上

Dogecoin, once viewed as a speculative asset driven by internet culture, is now seen as being on relatively firm regulatory ground. A key factor is that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) already regulates Dogecoin futures, which adds to its credibility as a commodity, a crucial status for ETF approval.

Dogecoin曾经被视为由互联网文化驱动的投机资产，现在被视为处于相对坚定的监管场面。一个关键因素是，商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）已经调节了Dogecoin期货，这增加了其作为商品的信誉，这是ETF批准的关键地位。

Several major asset managers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares, have already filed for spot Dogecoin ETFs. The final SEC deadline for a decision on these applications is set for October 17, 2025.

几位主要资产经理，包括灰度，位和21shares，已经申请了dogecoin ETF。对这些申请决定的最终SEC截止日期定于2025年10月17日。

Based on the chart above, DOGE trades at $0.1984, up almost 4% in the past 24 hours. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads a value of 49.39, just around the neutral territory, indicating that the bulls and the bears are matched. The MACD indicator shows a bullish divergence, suggesting a massive DOGE rally.

根据上图，Doge的交易价格为0.1984美元，在过去24小时内增长了近4％。相对强度指数（RSI）在中性领土附近读取49.39的值，表明公牛和熊是匹配的。 MACD指示器显示了看涨的分歧，表明了大量的门将集会。

Related: Is This the Perfect Time for Altcoins? Expert Predictions on the Next Crypto Move

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Cardano: A More Cautious Outlook

卡尔达诺：更谨慎的前景

While Cardano is viewed as a top DeFi coin and has a good chance of gaining ETF approval, its path appears slightly more challenging. So far, only Grayscale has filed for a spot Cardano ETF. Although analysts believe the SEC is likely to view ADA as a commodity, it does not yet have a CFTC-regulated futures market.

尽管Cardano被视为最佳抗议硬币，并且有很大的机会获得ETF批准，但其道路似乎更具挑战性。到目前为止，只有灰度申请了Cardano ETF。尽管分析师认为SEC可能会将ADA视为商品，但尚未拥有CFTC调节的期货市场。

The final SEC decision deadline for the Cardano application is October 23, 2025.

Cardano申请的最终SEC决定截止日期是2025年10月23日。

As per the chart above, from early February to early March, ADA experienced a significant decline, breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating strong bearish momentum. Following this sharp drop, the price entered a period of consolidation and gradual recovery through late March and April. During this time, the price largely stayed within the Bollinger Bands.

根据上图，从2月初到3月初，Ada的下降大幅下降，突破了下Bollinger乐队，表明看跌势头强劲。在这种急剧下降之后，价格进入了3月下旬和4月的合并和逐步恢复期。在此期间，价格很大程度上停留在布林乐队内。

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Further, the Balance of Power indicator, fluctuating around the zero line throughout this period, suggests a relatively balanced struggle between buyers and sellers, with no sustained strong buying or selling pressure dominating for extended periods.

此外，在此期间，电源指标的平衡围绕零线的波动，这表明买卖双方之间的斗争相对平衡，没有持续的强劲买入或销售压力占据了长时间。

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