比特币的疯狂旅程：亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes），$ 90k Dip和百万美元的梦想

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测，在大规模集会之前，潜在的比特币降至$ 90k。这是在激增之前的摇晃到100万美元吗？

Bitcoin's got everyone on the edge of their seats. Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX founder, is stirring the pot with his prediction of a possible dip to $90,000 before Bitcoin blasts off to a staggering $1 million. Buckle up, because this ride's about to get interesting.

比特币让每个人都坐在座位的边缘。 Bitmex创始人亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）通过预测比特币爆炸至100万美元的爆炸之前，他可能会降至90,000美元。系好，因为这次旅程即将变得有趣。

The Hayes Hypothesis: $90K Dip Before the Moonshot

Hayes假设：售价为$ 90K浸入月光之前

Hayes isn't your average crypto doomsayer. He's laying out a scenario where the U.S. Treasury's moves to refill its coffers (the Treasury General Account, or TGA) could temporarily suck liquidity out of the market. This, he believes, might trigger a Bitcoin retracement. His words? A dip to the $90,000-$95,000 range isn't out of the question.

海耶斯不是您的平均加密命令。他正在制定一种场景，即美国财政部为其加入其库存的举动（财政部总帐户或TGA）可能会暂时将流动性从市场上吸收。他认为，这可能会触发比特币回收。他的话？跌至90,000美元至95,000美元的范围并不是不可能的。

He tweeted that the “Big Beautiful Bill” might drain market liquidity, causing a short-term dip.

他在推特上说，“大型账单”可能会浪费市场流动性，从而导致短期下降。

But before you start panic-selling, Hayes is adamant this isn't a death knell for the bull run. He views it as a potential shakeout, a chance to clear out the weak hands before the real fireworks begin. Think of it as a temporary detour on the road to riches.

但是在您开始惊慌失措之前，海耶斯坚决这不是公牛奔跑的死亡之后。他将其视为潜在的摇摆，是在真正的烟火开始之前清除弱手的机会。将其视为通往财富之路的临时绕道。

The Million-Dollar Bitcoin Vision

百万美元的比特币愿景

Despite the short-term caution, Hayes is wildly bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He foresees U.S. fiscal operations quietly reflating markets, paving the way for a massive surge in digital assets. In his mind, we're talking about Bitcoin potentially pumping 10x to $1 million by 2028. That's not pocket change, folks.

尽管有短期的谨慎，海耶斯还是对比特币的长期前景非常看好。他预计美国财政运营会悄悄地转化为市场，为数字资产的巨大激增铺平了道路。在他看来，我们正在谈论比特币到2028年可能会泵送10倍至100万美元。伙计们，这并不是零钱。

Hayes believes the U.S. government is setting the stage for a major influx of capital into Treasuries, ultimately fueling risk assets like Bitcoin. And stablecoins? They're central to this liquidity wave, according to Hayes.

海耶斯认为，美国政府正在为大量资本涌入国库，最终为比特币等风险资产奠定了基础。和stablecoins？据海斯说，它们是这一流动性波的核心。

What About That $164,000 Target?

那164,000美元的目标呢？

While Hayes is talking about a possible dip, other analysts are eyeing much higher near-term targets. Crypto Patel, for instance, points to a potential $164,000 Bitcoin price based on institutional buying patterns. Their analysis shows that if Bitcoin repeats the same 74% rally as it did during the first big move, CryptoPatel calculates that the BTC price could shoot up to around $164,000.

当海斯谈论可能的浸入时，其他分析师的近期目标也更高。例如，Crypto Patel指出，基于机构购买方式，潜在的164,000美元比特币价格。他们的分析表明，如果比特币重复与第一大步期间相同的74％拉力赛，CryptoPatel计算出BTC的价格可能会达到164,000美元左右。

The chart shared by Crypto Patel gives another perspective on where Bitcoin could be heading. It shows the entire journey of BTC since 2021.

加密帕特尔（Crypto Patel）共享的图表给出了对比特币可能在哪里前进的另一种观点。它显示了自2021年以来BTC的整个旅程。

So, could both be right? Absolutely. A short-term dip could simply be a pit stop on the way to a much larger rally.

那么，俩都可以吗？绝对地。短期倾斜可能只是进入更大集会的途中的进站。

The Yield Conundrum: Why Isn't Bitcoin Earning More?

产量难题：为什么比特币不收入更多？

Let's face it: Bitcoin's a bit of a slacker when it comes to generating yield. With less than 1% APY across most DeFi protocols, trillions of dollars sit dormant. It's like having a gold mine in your backyard and not bothering to dig.

让我们面对现实：在产生产量时，比特币有点懈怠。在大多数FEFI方案中，数万亿美元处于休眠状态。这就像在您的后院里有一个金矿，而不是不愿意挖。

The good news? Innovation is brewing. New protocols are emerging that aim to bring institutional-grade yield strategies on-chain, allowing Bitcoin holders to earn through futures arbitrage and other sophisticated methods. Imagine Bitcoin collateralizing positions that simultaneously earn from treasury bill yields, futures arbitrage, and lending markets — stacking income streams while maintaining core exposure to Bitcoin's price movements.

好消息？创新正在酿造。新的协议正在出现，旨在将机构级别的收益策略置于链上，从而使比特币持有人能够通过期货套利和其他复杂的方法来赚钱。想象一下，比特币的抵押职位同时从国库券收益率，期货套利和贷款市场中获得的收入 - 堆叠收入来源，同时保持核心接触比特币的价格变动。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up, Buttercup!

最终想法：扣紧，毛cup！

Whether Bitcoin dips to $90K or rockets to $164K, one thing's for sure: it's going to be a wild ride. Arthur Hayes' insights offer a valuable perspective, reminding us that short-term volatility is part of the game. So, HODL on tight, keep an eye on those macro trends, and get ready for whatever the crypto gods throw our way. And who knows? Maybe that million-dollar Bitcoin isn't such a crazy dream after all.

无论是比特币降至90k美元还是火箭至16.4万美元，一件事可以肯定：这将是一次疯狂的旅程。亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）的见解提供了有价值的观点，提醒我们短期波动率是游戏的一部分。因此，霍德（Hodl）紧紧抓住那些宏观趋势，并为加密神的抛出方式做好准备。谁知道？毕竟，也许百万美元的比特币并不是一个疯狂的梦想。