比特幣的瘋狂旅程：亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes），$ 90k Dip和百萬美元的夢想

亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）預測，在大規模集會之前，潛在的比特幣降至$ 90k。這是在激增之前的搖晃到100萬美元嗎？

Bitcoin's got everyone on the edge of their seats. Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX founder, is stirring the pot with his prediction of a possible dip to $90,000 before Bitcoin blasts off to a staggering $1 million. Buckle up, because this ride's about to get interesting.

比特幣讓每個人都坐在座位的邊緣。 Bitmex創始人亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）通過預測比特幣爆炸至100萬美元的爆炸之前，他可能會降至90,000美元。係好，因為這次旅程即將變得有趣。

The Hayes Hypothesis: $90K Dip Before the Moonshot

Hayes假設：售價為$ 90K浸入月光之前

Hayes isn't your average crypto doomsayer. He's laying out a scenario where the U.S. Treasury's moves to refill its coffers (the Treasury General Account, or TGA) could temporarily suck liquidity out of the market. This, he believes, might trigger a Bitcoin retracement. His words? A dip to the $90,000-$95,000 range isn't out of the question.

海耶斯不是您的平均加密命令。他正在製定一種場景，即美國財政部為其加入其庫存的舉動（財政部總帳戶或TGA）可能會暫時將流動性從市場上吸收。他認為，這可能會觸發比特幣回收。他的話？跌至90,000美元至95,000美元的範圍並不是不可能的。

He tweeted that the “Big Beautiful Bill” might drain market liquidity, causing a short-term dip.

他在推特上說，“大型賬單”可能會浪費市場流動性，從而導致短期下降。

But before you start panic-selling, Hayes is adamant this isn't a death knell for the bull run. He views it as a potential shakeout, a chance to clear out the weak hands before the real fireworks begin. Think of it as a temporary detour on the road to riches.

但是在您開始驚慌失措之前，海耶斯堅決這不是公牛奔跑的死亡之後。他將其視為潛在的搖擺，是在真正的煙火開始之前清除弱手的機會。將其視為通往財富之路的臨時繞道。

The Million-Dollar Bitcoin Vision

百萬美元的比特幣願景

Despite the short-term caution, Hayes is wildly bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He foresees U.S. fiscal operations quietly reflating markets, paving the way for a massive surge in digital assets. In his mind, we're talking about Bitcoin potentially pumping 10x to $1 million by 2028. That's not pocket change, folks.

儘管有短期的謹慎，海耶斯還是對比特幣的長期前景非常看好。他預計美國財政運營會悄悄地轉化為市場，為數字資產的巨大激增鋪平了道路。在他看來，我們正在談論比特幣到2028年可能會泵送10倍至100萬美元。伙計們，這並不是零錢。

Hayes believes the U.S. government is setting the stage for a major influx of capital into Treasuries, ultimately fueling risk assets like Bitcoin. And stablecoins? They're central to this liquidity wave, according to Hayes.

海耶斯認為，美國政府正在為大量資本湧入國庫，最終為比特幣等風險資產奠定了基礎。和stablecoins？據海斯說，它們是這一流動性波的核心。

What About That $164,000 Target?

那164,000美元的目標呢？

While Hayes is talking about a possible dip, other analysts are eyeing much higher near-term targets. Crypto Patel, for instance, points to a potential $164,000 Bitcoin price based on institutional buying patterns. Their analysis shows that if Bitcoin repeats the same 74% rally as it did during the first big move, CryptoPatel calculates that the BTC price could shoot up to around $164,000.

當海斯談論可能的浸入時，其他分析師的近期目標也更高。例如，Crypto Patel指出，基於機構購買方式，潛在的164,000美元比特幣價格。他們的分析表明，如果比特幣重複與第一大步期間相同的74％拉力賽，CryptoPatel計算出BTC的價格可能會達到164,000美元左右。

The chart shared by Crypto Patel gives another perspective on where Bitcoin could be heading. It shows the entire journey of BTC since 2021.

加密帕特爾（Crypto Patel）共享的圖表給出了對比特幣可能在哪裡前進的另一種觀點。它顯示了自2021年以來BTC的整個旅程。

So, could both be right? Absolutely. A short-term dip could simply be a pit stop on the way to a much larger rally.

那麼，倆都可以嗎？絕對地。短期傾斜可能只是進入更大集會的途中的進站。

The Yield Conundrum: Why Isn't Bitcoin Earning More?

產量難題：為什麼比特幣不收入更多？

Let's face it: Bitcoin's a bit of a slacker when it comes to generating yield. With less than 1% APY across most DeFi protocols, trillions of dollars sit dormant. It's like having a gold mine in your backyard and not bothering to dig.

讓我們面對現實：在產生產量時，比特幣有點懈怠。在大多數FEFI方案中，數万億美元處於休眠狀態。這就像在您的後院裡有一個金礦，而不是不願意挖。

The good news? Innovation is brewing. New protocols are emerging that aim to bring institutional-grade yield strategies on-chain, allowing Bitcoin holders to earn through futures arbitrage and other sophisticated methods. Imagine Bitcoin collateralizing positions that simultaneously earn from treasury bill yields, futures arbitrage, and lending markets — stacking income streams while maintaining core exposure to Bitcoin's price movements.

好消息？創新正在釀造。新的協議正在出現，旨在將機構級別的收益策略置於鏈上，從而使比特幣持有人能夠通過期貨套利和其他復雜的方法來賺錢。想像一下，比特幣的抵押職位同時從國庫券收益率，期貨套利和貸款市場中獲得的收入 - 堆疊收入來源，同時保持核心接觸比特幣的價格變動。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up, Buttercup!

最終想法：扣緊，毛cup！

Whether Bitcoin dips to $90K or rockets to $164K, one thing's for sure: it's going to be a wild ride. Arthur Hayes' insights offer a valuable perspective, reminding us that short-term volatility is part of the game. So, HODL on tight, keep an eye on those macro trends, and get ready for whatever the crypto gods throw our way. And who knows? Maybe that million-dollar Bitcoin isn't such a crazy dream after all.

無論是比特幣降至90k美元還是火箭至16.4萬美元，一件事可以肯定：這將是一次瘋狂的旅程。亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）的見解提供了有價值的觀點，提醒我們短期波動率是遊戲的一部分。因此，霍德（Hodl）緊緊抓住那些宏觀趨勢，並為加密神的拋出方式做好準備。誰知道？畢竟，也許百萬美元的比特幣並不是一個瘋狂的夢想。