四月以看跌结束，比特币面临不确定的未来

随着比特币接近四月收盘价，其价格不确定地徘徊在十天低点附近。华尔街交易时段的长期抛售使加密货币保持在关键阻力位以下。宏观经济和地缘政治波动加剧了挑战，引发了人们对比特币能否扭转下跌趋势的担忧。尽管乐观人士认为市场可能会恢复第一季度的牛市，但看跌情绪依然强劲，卖家兴趣集中在当前水平和历史高点之间。然而，由于预计进一步的下行压力，支撑区域受到密切关注。距离月度收盘仅剩几天，4 月有望成为比特币 2024 年迄今为止最糟糕的一个月，凸显了不确定的前景和进一步下跌的可能性。

Bitcoin Faces Uncertain Future as April Draw to a Close on Bearish Note

四月份接近尾声，比特币面临不确定的未来

As the month of April draws near its end, Bitcoin (BTC) finds itself in a precarious position, with its price action sinking to ten-day lows. The largest cryptocurrency remains mired beneath substantial resistance levels following a week of sustained selling pressure during Wall Street trading hours.

随着 4 月接近尾声，比特币 (BTC) 发现自己处于不稳定的境地，其价格走势跌至十天低点。在华尔街交易时段持续一周的抛售压力之后，最大的加密货币仍陷入巨大阻力位。

Macroeconomic and geopolitical instability have further complicated the situation for Bitcoin bulls this month, leaving them grappling with formidable challenges. The current landscape presents significant hurdles, with considerable seller interest between the spot price and new all-time highs. While price discovery remains within reach, at approximately $12,000 away, such levels appear distant.

宏观经济和地缘政治的不稳定使本月比特币多头的处境进一步复杂化，使他们面临着巨大的挑战。当前的形势存在重大障碍，现货价格和历史新高之间的卖家兴趣浓厚。虽然价格发现仍然触手可及，距离大约 12,000 美元，但这样的水平似乎还很遥远。

Market observers are cautiously monitoring the situation, scrutinizing key areas of support should downside pressure continue to accumulate. Optimists maintain that BTC/USD is merely traversing a range, expressing confidence that a continuation of the bull market witnessed in Q1 will materialize.

市场观察人士正在谨慎监控事态发展，密切关注下行压力继续累积的关键支撑领域。乐观者认为，比特币/美元只是在穿越一个区间，他们对第一季度牛市的延续将成为现实表示信心。

Deja vu may play a role in Bitcoin's potential resurgence this week. Less than four months after the United States, Hong Kong is poised to launch its own spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

似曾相识的感觉可能会在本周比特币的潜在复苏中发挥作用。继美国之后不到四个月，香港也准备推出自己的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）。

Bitcoin At Risk of Worst Month Since November 2022

比特币面临 2022 年 11 月以来最糟糕月份的风险

The weekly close offered scant respite to embattled Bitcoin traders as BTC/USD continued its downward trajectory into the Asia session.

随着比特币/美元在亚洲时段继续下跌，每周收盘价并没有给陷入困境的比特币交易者带来喘息的机会。

Hitting lows of $61,943 on Bitstamp, the pair reached its lowest levels since April 19. The preceding week had seen relief bounces towards $65,000 repeatedly encountering selling pressure around the Wall Street open, a phenomenon that commentators attributed to U.S. automated trading algorithms.

该货币对在 Bitstamp 上触及 61,943 美元的低点，达到 4 月 19 日以来的最低水平。前一周，该货币对在华尔街开盘时多次遭遇抛售压力，反弹至 65,000 美元，评论员将此现象归因于美国自动交易算法。

While bears have thus far failed to keep the market below $60,000 for an extended period, April is on track to deliver losses exceeding 12%, even at current levels around $62,000.

尽管空头迄今为止未能将市场长期保持在 60,000 美元以下，但 4 月份的损失有望超过 12%，即使目前水平约为 62,000 美元。

Data from CoinGlass confirms that such an outcome would make April Bitcoin's worst-performing month since November 2022, the height of the latest bear market.

CoinGlass 的数据证实，这样的结果将使 4 月份比特币成为自 2022 年 11 月以来表现最差的月份，也是最近一次熊市的最高峰。

Yen Volatility Adds to FOMC Week Uncertainty

日元波动加剧了联邦公开市场委员会本周的不确定性

Significant macroeconomic events will continue to dominate the news this week, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision taking center stage.

重大宏观经济事件将继续主导本周的新闻，其中美联储即将公布的利率决定成为焦点。

While markets anticipate no surprises from the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), recent macroeconomic data points have raised concerns among risk-asset bulls. Market participants fear that lower interest rates may materialize much later than initially anticipated, as indicated by estimates from CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

尽管市场预计联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的最新会议不会出现意外，但最近的宏观经济数据点引起了风险资产多头的担忧。正如芝加哥商品交易所集团 FedWatch 工具的估计所示，市场参与者担心较低的利率可能会比最初预期的时间晚得多。

"We have a massive week ahead of us," summarized The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, in its weekly macro outlook thread. "After a month filled with hot inflation data, we will finally get the Fed's updated views."

交易资源《Kobeissi Letter》在其每周宏观展望主题中总结道：“我们将迎来重要的一周。” “在充满了热门通胀数据的一个月之后，我们终于将得到美联储的最新观点。”

Beyond the FOMC, the week's macroeconomic events include commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on May 1, followed by jobless claims and unemployment data on May 2 and May 3, respectively.

除了 FOMC 之外，本周的宏观经济事件还包括美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 5 月 1 日的评论，随后分别是 5 月 2 日和 5 月 3 日的失业救济申请和失业数据。

For Bitcoin and other risk assets, however, the outlook may not be entirely bleak, unless views shift towards a significant deterioration of economic circumstances.

然而，对于比特币和其他风险资产来说，前景可能并不完全黯淡，除非人们的观点转向经济环境的严重恶化。

"Worst case scenario would be consecutively bad spells for risk assets & potentially lead to bets of economy somehow breaking apart," said Skew, a popular trader, regarding the outlook. "Probably see sweep of $50K-$46K area. Don't see that happening till there's HTF close below $58K & narrative for a breakdown."

受欢迎的交易员 Skew 在谈到前景时表示：“最糟糕的情况将是风险资产连续出现糟糕的情况，并可能导致对经济的押注以某种方式崩溃。” “可能会看到 5 万美元至 4.6 万美元区域的横扫。直到 HTF 收盘价低于 5.8 万美元并且出现崩溃的叙述之前，不会看到这种情况发生。”

Signs of stress are evident this week, with the U.S. experiencing yet another regional bank failure. In Japan, the yen hit its lowest levels against the dollar since 1990 during a period of flash volatility, briefly exceeding 160 before recovering.

本周压力迹象显而易见，美国再次遭遇地区性银行倒闭。在日本，日元兑美元汇率在急剧波动期间触及 1990 年以来的最低水平，短暂突破 160，然后回升。

Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs Set to Launch

香港比特币 ETF 即将推出

Shifting focus to Asia, the coming week marks a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's institutional adoption.

将焦点转向亚洲，未来一周标志着比特币机构采用的关键时刻。

Similar to the U.S. in January, Hong Kong is preparing to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs, sparking anticipation of significant interest and potential price impact.

与 1 月份美国类似，香港正准备推出现货比特币 ETF，引发了人们的浓厚兴趣和潜在价格影响的预期。

Citing a 2022 report from crypto exchange Huobi, Willy Woo, creator of the on-chain statistics platform Woobull, emphasized the substantial demand for spot ETF products.

链上统计平台 Woobull 的创建者 Willy Woo 援引加密货币交易所 Huobi 的 2022 年报告，强调了现货 ETF 产品的巨大需求。

"The Asian market in user count is BIGGER than the US and European markets combined," Woo noted in a post on Twitter.

“亚洲市场的用户数量比美国和欧洲市场的总和还要大，”Woo 在 Twitter 上的一篇帖子中指出。

House of Chimera, a blockchain research and advisory group, estimated potential inflows of $25 billion in a preliminary report on the upcoming ETF launch, citing estimates from Matrixport, a crypto financial services platform.

区块链研究和咨询集团 House of Chimera 在关于即将推出的 ETF 的初步报告中引用了加密货币金融服务平台 Matrixport 的估计，估计潜在资金流入为 250 亿美元。

"The substantial capital potential might lead to increased liquidity and possibly stabilize Bitcoin prices," wrote House of Chimera on Twitter. "It also sets a precedent for other Asian markets, potentially influencing further regulatory adjustments in favor of crypto."

House of Chimera 在推特上写道：“巨大的资本潜力可能会导致流动性增加，并可能稳定比特币价格。” “这也为其他亚洲市场树立了先例，可能会影响进一步有利于加密货币的监管调整。”

However, House of Chimera cautioned that investor participation from mainland China could face restrictions due to regulatory hurdles.

不过，House of Chimera 警告称，由于监管障碍，中国大陆投资者的参与可能会受到限制。

"While the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong is a landmark development, its success and impact on the broader market will depend heavily on regulatory environments, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic factors influencing cryptocurrency valuations," concluded the group.

该组织总结道：“虽然在香港推出比特币 ETF 是一个里程碑式的发展，但其成功和对更广泛市场的影响将在很大程度上取决于监管环境、投资者情绪和影响加密货币估值的宏观经济因素。”

BTC Price Support Lines at Risk of Retest

BTC价格支撑线面临重新测试的风险

As Bitcoin hovers near significant support levels, including $60,000 and $58,000, one trendline in particular has emerged as a potential flashpoint.

随着比特币徘徊在重要支撑位（包括 60,000 美元和 58,000 美元）附近，一条趋势线已成为潜在的爆发点。

As reported by Cointelegraph, the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin's short-term holders (STHs) has garnered the attention of analysts.

据 Cointelegraph 报道，比特币短期持有者（STH）的总成本基础引起了分析师的关注。

This investor cohort comprises entities holding a portion of BTC for a maximum of 155 days, embodying the speculative end of the investment spectrum.

该投资者群体由持有部分 BTC 最长期限为 155 天的实体组成，体现了投资范围的投机性。

STH realized price, currently hovering around $59,800, represents a crucial level to monitor. Throughout Bitcoin's recovery from the 2022 bear market lows, STH realized price has consistently acted as a support, with only a brief period in September 2023 breaking this pattern.

STH 的实现价格目前徘徊在 59,800 美元左右，这是一个需要监控的关键水平。在比特币从 2022 年熊市低点复苏的整个过程中，STH 实现价格一直充当支撑，只有 2023 年 9 月的短暂时期打破了这一模式。

"Will it hold as support this time?" queried Philip Swift, creator of the on-chain data platform Look Into Bitcoin.

“这次能起到支撑作用吗？”链上数据平台 Look Into Bitcoin 的创建者 Philip Swift 问道。

Two mid-term exponential moving averages, or EMAs, known as the "bull market support band," are also positioned to provide damage control in the event of a deeper retracement.

两条中期指数移动平均线（EMA），被称为“牛市支撑带”，也被定位为在出现更深回调时提供损害控制。

"As we keep consolidating, the bull market support band is catching up to price," wrote popular trader Daan Crypto Trades in his latest post on the topic. "This should offer good support if we were to touch it. Back in 2021 when we broke the 2017 all-time high, we ended up not needing it but took off before the band could catch up."

“随着我们不断巩固，牛市支撑带正在追赶价格，”受欢迎的交易员 Daan Crypto Trades 在他关于该主题的最新帖子中写道。 “如果我们要触及它，这应该会提供良好的支撑。早在 2021 年，当我们突破 2017 年的历史高点时，我们最终不需要它，但在乐队赶上之前就起飞了。”

Retail Investors Return to Bitcoin

散户投资者重返比特币

In a glimmer of optimism amidst the subdued BTC price action, retail investor interest is resurging.

在比特币价格走势低迷的情况下，散户投资者的兴趣正在复苏，但出现了一丝乐观情绪。

Checkmate, the pseudonymous lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, observed that wallets holding less than 100 BTC are actively increasing their exposure.

Glassnode 的匿名首席链上分析师 Checkmate 观察到，持有少于 100 BTC 的钱包正在积极增加其风险敞口。

Citing data from his own platform, Checkonchain, Checkmate noted that 30-day rolling wallet balances turned positive on April 8 for the first time since mid-January.

Checkmate 援引自己平台 Checkonchain 的数据指出，30 天滚动钱包余额于 4 月 8 日自 1 月中旬以来首次转正。

"The Bitcoin retail holders, who are apparently degenerates who will sell on the first sign of a correction... ...appear to be stacking sats once again," he concluded. "Shrimp (<1 $BTC) are accumulating 12.2k $BTC per month as it stands."

他总结道：“比特币散户持有者显然已经堕落了，一旦出现修正迹象就会抛售……似乎再次囤积比特币。” “虾 （