比特币交易低于成本基础，引发担忧和波动

比特币（BTC）已跌破短期持有者的平均购买价格，引发了人们对未实现损失造成的“恐慌”的担忧。分析师 James Check 警告说，这些买家很容易感到恐慌，同时强调比特币最近下跌了 8%，并创下 2 月份以来的最低价格。由于价格下跌，持有 BTC 时间不足 155 天的短期持有者平均遭​​受 3% 的未实现损失。尽管略有回升，但 BTC 的价值在 24 小时内下跌了 4%，多头头寸被清算 1.0027 亿美元。

Bitcoin Trades Below Cost Basis, Sparking Concerns and Volatility

比特币交易低于成本基础，引发担忧和波动

In a concerning development that has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has plummeted below the average purchase price paid by short-term holders, triggering widespread apprehension and raising fears of a potential panic.

令人担忧的事态发展给加密货币市场带来了冲击波，比特币（BTC）已暴跌至短期持有者支付的平均购买价格以下，引发了广泛的担忧并引发了对潜在恐慌的担忧。

Analysts have expressed alarm over the recent price drop, citing the statistical likelihood that these recent buyers may panic in response to unrealized losses. James Check, an on-chain analyst known as "Checkmatey," has warned that this development could cause significant turmoil in the market.

分析师对最近的价格下跌表示担忧，理由是统计数据显示，这些最近的买家可能会因未实现的损失而感到恐慌。被称为“Checkmatey”的链上分析师 James Check 警告称，这一发展可能会导致市场严重动荡。

"These recent buyers are statistically the most likely to panic," Check stated in a recent report.

切克在最近的一份报告中表示：“从统计数据来看，这些最近的买家最有可能感到恐慌。”

The sharp decline in Bitcoin's price, which briefly plummeted 8% below a key support level to $56,814 on May 1, has raised concerns among short-term holders who have held their Bitcoin for less than 155 days. These holders paid an average price of $59,600 per Bitcoin, meaning they are currently facing an average unrealized loss of 3%.

比特币价格大幅下跌，5 月 1 日一度跌破关键支撑位 8%，至 56,814 美元，引起了持有比特币不到 155 天的短期持有者的担忧。这些持有者为每个比特币支付的平均价格为 59,600 美元，这意味着他们目前面临平均 3% 的未实现损失。

Despite a slight recovery to $57,631 at the time of writing, short-term holders remain in a precarious position. Bitcoin's current price represents a decline of 4% over the past 24 hours, and the liquidation of $100.27 million in long positions during that time has further exacerbated the situation.

尽管在撰写本文时略有回升至 57,631 美元，但短期持有者仍处于不稳定的境地。比特币当前价格在过去 24 小时内下跌了 4%，而在此期间清算了 1.0027 亿美元的多头头寸，进一步加剧了这一情况。

The price decline was triggered by a broad crypto sell-off as market participants anxiously awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which ultimately left current high interest rates unchanged.

价格下跌是由广泛的加密货币抛售引发的，因为市场参与者焦急地等待美联储的利率决定，最终维持当前的高利率不变。

While acknowledging that holding an unrealized loss is far from ideal, Check has emphasized that short-term Bitcoin holders have faced similar challenges in the past and have ultimately recovered.

虽然承认持有未实现的损失远非理想状态，但 Check 强调，短期比特币持有者过去也面临过类似的挑战，但最终已经恢复过来。

"Most importantly, breaking the [short-term holder] cost basis isn't the end of the world, nor the end of the bull market. It doesn't help…but it is and has been recoverable," he wrote.

“最重要的是，打破[短期持有者]成本基础并不是世界末日，也不是牛市的终结。这没有帮助......但它是并且一直是可以恢复的，”他写道。

The cost basis for short-term holders typically acts as a support level during bull periods and a resistance level during bear periods. However, crypto trading resource On-Chain College has identified several potential events that do not necessarily signal the end of the bull market.

短期持有者的成本基础通常在牛市期间充当支撑位，在熊市期间充当阻力位。然而，加密货币交易资源链上学院已经发现了一些潜在事件，这些事件并不一定意味着牛市的结束。

According to On-Chain College, a "quick move" to $59,600, representing a 2.2% increase from Bitcoin's current price, would be a bullish sign. This scenario is based on a similar pattern observed in June 2023, when the price dipped below the cost basis but quickly rebounded, preceding a significant upswing.

根据 On-Chain College 的说法，“快速上涨”至 59,600 美元（比当前比特币价格上涨 2.2%）将是一个看涨信号。这种情况基于 2023 年 6 月观察到的类似模式，当时价格跌破成本基础，但在大幅上涨之前迅速反弹。

On-Chain College also notes that Bitcoin's price remained volatile below the short-term cost basis for a period of time after a pullback in August 2023. This suggests that a "sustained period" below the cost basis could also indicate a bullish trend.

On-Chain College 还指出，在 2023 年 8 月回调之后，比特币价格在一段时间内仍低于短期成本基础波动。这表明，低于成本基础的“持续一段时间”也可能表明看涨趋势。

It is crucial to emphasize that this article should not be construed as investment advice. All investment decisions should be made after thorough research and due consideration of individual circumstances.

需要强调的是，本文不应被视为投资建议。所有投资决策均应经过彻底研究并适当考虑个人情况后做出。