比特币暴跌引发对更广泛市场风险的担忧

PayPal 宣布很快将向部分用户提供购买、持有和出售加密货币的功能。该公司表示该功能将于本周推出。比特币最近的暴跌引发了全球市场潜在“麻烦”的警告，投资者密切关注该数字代币的明显波动，以寻找有关风险偏好更广泛变化的线索。

Bitcoin's Recent Dip Raises Concerns About Broader Market Risks

比特币最近的下跌引发了人们对更广泛市场风险的担忧

London, United Kingdom - The recent decline in the price of Bitcoin has sparked alarm among investors, raising concerns about the potential impact on global financial markets. The digital asset has lost approximately 4% of its value over the past two days, following a significant 16% plunge in April, marking its worst monthly performance since the collapse of FTX in November 2022.

英国伦敦——近期比特币价格的下跌引发了投资者的恐慌，引发了人们对其对全球金融市场潜在影响的担忧。继 4 月份大幅下跌 16% 后，该数字资产在过去两天损失了约 4%，这是自 2022 年 11 月 FTX 崩溃以来最糟糕的月度表现。

As of Thursday morning in London, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $57,462, hovering near a two-month low. Market analysts closely monitor the fluctuations of Bitcoin as a potential indicator of broader shifts in risk appetite. The latest price drop coincides with the Federal Reserve's recent signaling that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period, a stance that typically tightens financial conditions by increasing Treasury yields and the value of the dollar.

截至周四上午，伦敦比特币交易价格约为 57,462 美元，徘徊在两个月低点附近。市场分析师密切关注比特币的波动，将其作为风险偏好更广泛变化的潜在指标。最新的价格下跌与美联储最近发出的信号一致，即利率将在较长时期内保持在高位，这一立场通常会通过提高国债收益率和美元价值来收紧金融状况。

"Bitcoin serves as an early warning system for us," noted Charlie Morris, Chief Investment Officer at ByteTree Asset Management. "Its current weakness suggests that financial markets may be facing challenges ahead, although we are confident that it will eventually recover."

ByteTree 资产管理公司首席投资官查理·莫里斯 (Charlie Morris) 表示：“比特币对我们来说是一个预警系统。” “目前的疲软表明金融市场可能面临未来的挑战，尽管我们有信心它最终会复苏。”

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of nearly $74,000 in mid-March, fueled by an influx of investments into spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from major financial institutions like BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments. However, demand for these products has since waned, and the launch of spot-Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in Hong Kong has failed to generate the anticipated momentum. Notably, the discounts to net asset value for some US ETF portfolios have widened, highlighting the challenges associated with Bitcoin's volatility. On Wednesday, US spot ETFs experienced their largest daily net outflow on record.

受贝莱德 (BlackRock Inc.) 和富达投资 (Fidelity Investments) 等主要金融机构大量投资现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的推动，比特币在 3 月中旬达到近 74,000 美元的历史新高。然而，此后对这些产品的需求逐渐减弱，而在香港推出的现货比特币和以太坊 ETF 未能产生预期的势头。值得注意的是，一些美国 ETF 投资组合的资产净值折扣有所扩大，凸显了与比特币波动性相关的挑战。周三，美国现货 ETF 经历了有记录以来最大的单日净流出。

Despite the recent slump, Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown signs of recovery. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price has rebounded slightly to around $57,700, marking a 0.5% gain over the past 24 hours. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has also surged by 2.3%, trading just below $3,000, according to data from CoinGecko. However, the past 24 hours have witnessed another $193 million in liquidations of crypto futures contracts, adding to the $300 million of liquidations earlier this week.

尽管近期暴跌，比特币和以太坊已显示出复苏的迹象。截至撰写本文时，比特币价格已小幅反弹至 57,700 美元左右，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 0.5%。根据 CoinGecko 的数据，第二大加密货币以太坊也飙升了 2.3%，交易价格略低于 3,000 美元。然而，在过去 24 小时内，加密货币期货合约的清算额又增加了 1.93 亿美元，本周早些时候的清算额为 3 亿美元。

Alex Krüger, an economist and trader, observed that the current market cycle differs from previous ones due to its primary focus on spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were only introduced in January 2023. "Retail investors have largely stayed away from crypto," he commented on Twitter. "It has primarily been ETF buyers and experienced traders redeploying their holdings and increasing their risk exposure."

经济学家兼交易员 Alex Krüger 观察到，当前的市场周期与之前的市场周期不同，因为其主要关注于 2023 年 1 月才推出的现货比特币 ETF。“散户投资者基本上远离了加密货币，”他评论道。推特。 “主要是 ETF 买家和经验丰富的交易员重新部署其持有的资产并增加风险敞口。”

Analysts attributed the recent crypto price decline to market concerns that the Federal Open Markets Committee would refrain from lowering interest rates. However, when the Fed maintained its current interest rate policy, as widely anticipated, crypto assets exhibited sideways trading.

分析师将最近的加密货币价格下跌归因于市场担心联邦公开市场委员会不会降低利率。然而，当美联储如广泛预期那样维持当前利率政策时，加密资产表现出横盘交易。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated in a recent press conference that curbing inflation to the target rate of 2% has proven challenging, but expressed doubt that "the next policy rate move will be a hike." President Joe Biden has also expressed optimism that the Fed will reduce interest rates this year, stating, "I stand by my prediction that before the year is out, there will be a rate cut."

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在最近的新闻发布会上表示，事实证明，将通胀率控制在2%的目标水平具有挑战性，但他对“下一次政策利率举措将是加息表示怀疑”。总统乔·拜登也对美联储今年降息表示乐观，他表示，“我坚持我的预测，在今年结束之前，将会降息。”

Experts anticipate that the next three to four months will be marked by heightened risk and diminished bullish sentiment, as the market closely scrutinizes inflation, employment, and economic data for unexpected shocks or signs of potential rate cuts, according to Youwei Yang, Chief Economist and Vice President of crypto miner BIT Mining Ltd.

专家预计，未来三到四个月的风险将上升，看涨情绪减弱，因为市场密切关注通胀、就业和经济数据，以寻找意外冲击或可能降息的迹象。加密货币矿商 BIT Mining Ltd. 副总裁

Bitcoin's performance in April has historically been mixed, with four declines over the past decade, three of which preceded losses in May averaging 18%, as per Bloomberg data. Nevertheless, if inflationary pressures moderate and markets regain confidence in a more dovish Fed stance, cryptocurrencies and other speculative investments may experience some respite.

根据彭博社的数据，比特币在 4 月份的表现历来好坏参半，在过去十年中出现了四次下跌，其中 3 次下跌是在 5 月份之前平均下跌 18%。然而，如果通胀压力缓和并且市场重新对美联储更加鸽派的立场恢复信心，加密货币和其他投机性投资可能会经历一些喘息。