比特币目前正在重新测试短期持有者的已实现价格

正如 CryptoQuant 社区经理 Maartunn 在 X 上的一篇新文章中所解释的那样，BTC 随着回撤已经回到了短期持有者的实际价格。

Bitcoin’s latest price plunge has brought the asset back to a historically significant support level, on-chain data shows.

链上数据显示，比特币最近的价格暴跌已使该资产回到历史上重要的支撑位。

On-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant now observes that BTC has returned to the Realized Price of the short-term holders with its drawdown.

链上分析公司 CryptoQuant 现在观察到，随着回撤，比特币已经回到了短期持有者的实际价格。

As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, the “Realized Price” is an on-chain indicator that denotes the average acquisition price or cost basis of all investors in the Bitcoin market.

正如 CryptoQuant 社区经理 Maartunn 在 X 上的一篇新文章中所解释的那样，“实际价格”是一个链上指标，表示比特币市场中所有投资者的平均收购价格或成本基础。

When the value of this metric is higher than the cryptocurrency’s spot price, the holders are in a state of net unrealized loss at the moment. Conversely, being above the asset’s price indicates dominance of profits in the market.

当该指标的价值高于加密货币的现货价格时，持有者目前处于净未实现损失状态。相反，高于资产价格表明利润在市场上占据主导地位。

In the context of the current discussion, the realized price of the entire market isn’t of interest, but that of only a segment of it: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs include all investors who bought their BTC within the past 155 days.

在当前讨论的背景下，我们感兴趣的不是整个市场的已实现价格，而是其中的一部分：短期持有者（STH）的价格。 STH 包括过去 155 天内购买 BTC 的所有投资者。

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price specifically for the STHs over the past month:

现在，下面的图表显示了过去一个月中 STH 的比特币实现价格趋势：

As you can see in the above graph, the spot price of Bitcoin has declined towards the STH Realized Price in its latest drawdown. This would mean that the break-even point of the STHs is now being retested.

正如您在上图中看到的那样，比特币的现货价格在最近的下跌中已向 STH 实现价格下跌。这意味着现在正在重新测试 STH 的盈亏平衡点。

Now, this retest has historically proven to be quite important for the cryptocurrency. The line has served as a transition boundary between bearish and bullish periods.

现在，历史证明这种重新测试对于加密货币来说非常重要。该线是看跌和看涨时期之间的过渡边界。

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Usually, when the asset is in the region above the STH Realized Price, retests of the indicator lead to it reversing back up. Similarly, the line acts as resistance when the coin is below it. The logic behind this curious pattern may lie in investor psychology.

通常，当资产位于 STH 实现价格之上的区域时，重新测试该指标会导致其反转。同样，当硬币位于该线下方时，该线充当阻力。这种奇怪模式背后的逻辑可能在于投资者的心理。

The STHs are the weakest hands of the market, who easily react to movements in the asset. Hence, they are naturally sensitive to retests of their cost basis and may make moves when they happen.

STH 是市场上最弱的手，他们很容易对资产的变动做出反应。因此，他们自然会对成本基础的重新测试敏感，并可能在测试发生时采取行动。

In bullish market atmospheres, the STHs typically view their cost basis as a buying opportunity. This is why the level acts as support during bullish periods. In times of bearish sentiment, these investors may panic sell at their break-even instead, thus providing resistance to the asset.

在看涨的市场氛围中，STH 通常将其成本基础视为买入机会。这就是为什么该水平在看涨期间充当支撑的原因。在看跌情绪时期，这些投资者可能会在盈亏平衡点恐慌性抛售，从而对该资产构成阻力。

The Bitcoin spot price had managed to break through this resistance earlier in the month, but with the plunge, it’s now retesting it again. It remains to be seen if support holds here (indicating a bullish market) or a dip under it happens (suggesting a transition to a bearish market).

本月早些时候，比特币现货价格已成功突破这一阻力位，但随着暴跌，它现在正在再次重新测试。支撑位是否守住（表明牛市）或跌破支撑位（表明市场向熊市过渡）还有待观察。

BTC Price

比特币价格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $64,800, down more than 2% over the past 24 hours.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 64,800 美元，过去 24 小时内下跌超过 2%。