比特币价格徘徊在周三的84,000美元左右

比特币价格周三徘徊在84,000美元左右，因为公牛继续在86,000美元的区域附近与抵抗战斗。

Bitcoin price hovered around $84,000 on Wednesday, as bulls continued to battle resistance near the $86,000 zone.

比特币价格周三徘徊在84,000美元左右，因为公牛继续在86,000美元的区域附近与抵抗战斗。

After bouncing from $75,000 earlier this month, BTC has yet to confirm a clean trend reversal. Key technical and sentiment indicators still flash caution.

在本月早些时候的75,000美元起弹跳后，BTC尚未确认趋势逆转。关键的技术和情感指标仍在谨慎。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $83,996. The daily exponential moving average 50 (EMA50), currently at $85,300, remains a critical short-term resistance.

在写作时，比特币的交易价格为83,996美元。每日指数移动平均值50（EMA50）目前为85,300美元，仍然是短期阻力。

$86K Wall Proves Hard to Break

$ 86K的墙证明很难打破

Bitcoin faces strong resistance in the $81,440–$86,430 area, where both technical indicators and sell-side pressure converge.

比特币在$ 81,440- $ 86,430的面积上面临着强烈的阻力，技术指标和卖方压力汇聚。

According to analyst Ali, two dense supply zones exist.

根据分析师Ali的说法，存在两个密集的供应区。

CoinGlass data shows a heavy concentration of sell orders near $86,300–$86,500, acting as a ceiling for price advances.

Coinglass数据显示，大量的卖出订单接近$ 86,300- $ 86,500，是价格上涨的上限。

Alphractal’s Alpha Price model, which factors in realized cap and on-chain sentiment, also marked $86,300 as a key barrier. A decisive move above this level could shift near-term sentiment back to bullish.

Alphractal的Alpha价格模型以实现的上限和链上情绪为因素，也标志着86,300美元作为关键障碍。超出此层次的决定性举动可能会近期转移回看涨。

Futures Sentiment Weakens Despite Price Recovery

尽管价格恢复，期货情绪削弱了

While spot price has recovered from its April lows, Bitcoin’s futures market tells a different story.

尽管现货价格已经从四月的低点中恢复过来，但比特币的期货市场讲述了一个不同的故事。

Data from CryptoQuant shows the BTC Futures Sentiment Index has hovered around 0.4 since February, largely remaining in oversold territory. In comparison, the index hit 0.8 during bullish peaks in late 2023.

来自CryptoQuant的数据表明，自2月以来，BTC期货情绪指数已徘徊在0.4左右，在很大程度上仍然留在超卖领土上。相比之下，该指数在2023年底的看涨峰值期间达到0.8。

Bitcoin’s futures sentiment dropped even as the price touched $101,000 in early February.

即使价格在2月初触及了101,000美元，比特币的期货情绪也下降了。

According to analysts, this disconnect between price action and futures sentiment could delay any sustained upward movement.

根据分析师的说法，价格行动和期货情绪之间的这种脱节可能会延迟任何持续的向上运动。

Trading Volumes Tell a Story of Hesitation

交易量讲述了一个犹豫的故事

Spot volume has hovered around 30,000 BTC per day, while derivatives markets move about 400,000 BTC daily, according to CryptoQuant. That’s well below the trading volume seen during the June–July 2021 rally.

据CryptoQuant称，斑点量每天徘徊在每天约30,000 BTC，而衍生品市场每天约40万BTC。这远低于2021年6月至7月7日拉力赛期间的交易量。

Apparent demand, which tracks net exchange inflows and outflows, remains low despite a slight recovery. Analysts caution that current demand could simply reflect a pause in selling pressure—not a true bullish shift.

尽管恢复略有恢复，但显然跟踪净交换流入和流出的需求仍然很低。分析师警告说，当前的需求可以简单地反映出销售压力的停顿，而不是真正的看涨转变。

Meanwhile, ETF data confirms the trend. Since April 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $870 million in outflows. A small inflow appeared on April 15, but broader investor appetite still looks limited.

同时，ETF数据确认了趋势。自4月3日以来，现场比特币ETF的流出量超过8.7亿美元。 4月15日出现了一小部分流入，但更广泛的投资者食欲仍然有限。

Supply-Side Metrics Don’t Paint a Bullish Picture

供应方指标不要画看涨的图片

On the supply side, liquidity remains thin. Glassnode reported a slowdown in Bitcoin’s realized cap growth to 0.80% per month, down from 0.83%. This suggests fewer new entrants are injecting capital into the network.

在供应方面，流动性保持稀少。 GlassNode报告说，比特币实现的上限增长率下降到每月0.80％，低于0.83％。这表明将资本注入网络的新进入者更少。

BTC balances on exchanges fell to 2.6 million coins—the lowest since November 2018. While that can reduce short-term sell pressure, it also limits available liquidity for rapid upside moves.

BTC在交易所的余额下降到260万个硬币，这是自2018年11月以来最低的。虽然这可以减轻短期卖出压力，但它也限制了可用的流动性来进行快速上涨。

Independent market analyst Michael van de Poppe flagged rising global M2 supply as a macro factor worth watching. Historically, BTC price has followed M2 growth with a 12-week delay.

独立的市场分析师迈克尔·范德·波普（Michael van de Poppe）将上升的全球M2供应标记为值得一看的宏观因素。从历史上看，BTC的价格随着M2的增长而延迟了12周。

Long-Term Predictions Face Pushback

长期预测面临回击

Crypto Seth predicted BTC could reach $140,000–$180,000 in 2025 before correcting to the $50,000–$70,000 range in 2026.

Crypto Seth预测BTC在2025年可能达到140,000- $ 180,000，然后校正2026年的$ 50,000- $ 70,000。

“Bookmark this and revisit in 2026,” he wrote, calling for a long-term cyclical move.

他写道：“书签并在2026年进行重新访问。”

However, veteran trader Peter Brandt dismissed such technical projections as unreliable.

但是，经验丰富的商人彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）驳斥了不可靠的技术预测。

“Trendlines are the LEAST significant,” Brandt posted. “A break doesn’t signal a trend shift. Sorry.”

勃兰特说：“趋势线是最不重要的。” “休息并不意味着趋势变化。对不起。”

Bitcoin’s structure suggests caution, not conviction. Bulls must push through $86,300 with real spot volume—not leverage-driven moves—to validate any trend change.

比特币的结构表明谨慎，而不是信念。公牛必须以86,300美元的价格推出真正的斑点量（而不是杠杆驱动的动作），以验证任何趋势变化。