比特幣價格徘徊在周三的84,000美元左右

比特幣價格週三徘徊在84,000美元左右，因為公牛繼續在86,000美元的區域附近與抵抗戰鬥。

Bitcoin price hovered around $84,000 on Wednesday, as bulls continued to battle resistance near the $86,000 zone.

比特幣價格週三徘徊在84,000美元左右，因為公牛繼續在86,000美元的區域附近與抵抗戰鬥。

After bouncing from $75,000 earlier this month, BTC has yet to confirm a clean trend reversal. Key technical and sentiment indicators still flash caution.

在本月早些時候的75,000美元起彈跳後，BTC尚未確認趨勢逆轉。關鍵的技術和情感指標仍在謹慎。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $83,996. The daily exponential moving average 50 (EMA50), currently at $85,300, remains a critical short-term resistance.

在寫作時，比特幣的交易價格為83,996美元。每日指數移動平均值50（EMA50）目前為85,300美元，仍然是短期阻力。

$86K Wall Proves Hard to Break

$ 86K的牆證明很難打破

Bitcoin faces strong resistance in the $81,440–$86,430 area, where both technical indicators and sell-side pressure converge.

比特幣在$ 81,440- $ 86,430的面積上面臨著強烈的阻力，技術指標和賣方壓力匯聚。

According to analyst Ali, two dense supply zones exist.

根據分析師Ali的說法，存在兩個密集的供應區。

CoinGlass data shows a heavy concentration of sell orders near $86,300–$86,500, acting as a ceiling for price advances.

Coinglass數據顯示，大量的賣出訂單接近$ 86,300- $ 86,500，是價格上漲的上限。

Alphractal’s Alpha Price model, which factors in realized cap and on-chain sentiment, also marked $86,300 as a key barrier. A decisive move above this level could shift near-term sentiment back to bullish.

Alphractal的Alpha價格模型以實現的上限和鏈上情緒為因素，也標誌著86,300美元作為關鍵障礙。超出此層次的決定性舉動可能會近期轉移回看漲。

Futures Sentiment Weakens Despite Price Recovery

儘管價格恢復，期貨情緒削弱了

While spot price has recovered from its April lows, Bitcoin’s futures market tells a different story.

儘管現貨價格已經從四月的低點中恢復過來，但比特幣的期貨市場講述了一個不同的故事。

Data from CryptoQuant shows the BTC Futures Sentiment Index has hovered around 0.4 since February, largely remaining in oversold territory. In comparison, the index hit 0.8 during bullish peaks in late 2023.

來自CryptoQuant的數據表明，自2月以來，BTC期貨情緒指數已徘徊在0.4左右，在很大程度上仍然留在超賣領土上。相比之下，該指數在2023年底的看漲峰值期間達到0.8。

Bitcoin’s futures sentiment dropped even as the price touched $101,000 in early February.

即使價格在2月初觸及了101,000美元，比特幣的期貨情緒也下降了。

According to analysts, this disconnect between price action and futures sentiment could delay any sustained upward movement.

根據分析師的說法，價格行動和期貨情緒之間的這種脫節可能會延遲任何持續的向上運動。

Trading Volumes Tell a Story of Hesitation

交易量講述了一個猶豫的故事

Spot volume has hovered around 30,000 BTC per day, while derivatives markets move about 400,000 BTC daily, according to CryptoQuant. That’s well below the trading volume seen during the June–July 2021 rally.

據CryptoQuant稱，斑點量每天徘徊在每天約30,000 BTC，而衍生品市場每天約40萬BTC。這遠低於2021年6月至7月7日拉力賽期間的交易量。

Apparent demand, which tracks net exchange inflows and outflows, remains low despite a slight recovery. Analysts caution that current demand could simply reflect a pause in selling pressure—not a true bullish shift.

儘管恢復略有恢復，但顯然跟踪淨交換流入和流出的需求仍然很低。分析師警告說，當前的需求可以簡單地反映出銷售壓力的停頓，而不是真正的看漲轉變。

Meanwhile, ETF data confirms the trend. Since April 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $870 million in outflows. A small inflow appeared on April 15, but broader investor appetite still looks limited.

同時，ETF數據確認了趨勢。自4月3日以來，現場比特幣ETF的流出量超過8.7億美元。 4月15日出現了一小部分流入，但更廣泛的投資者食慾仍然有限。

Supply-Side Metrics Don’t Paint a Bullish Picture

供應方指標不要畫看漲的圖片

On the supply side, liquidity remains thin. Glassnode reported a slowdown in Bitcoin’s realized cap growth to 0.80% per month, down from 0.83%. This suggests fewer new entrants are injecting capital into the network.

在供應方面，流動性保持稀少。 GlassNode報告說，比特幣實現的上限增長率下降到每月0.80％，低於0.83％。這表明將資本注入網絡的新進入者更少。

BTC balances on exchanges fell to 2.6 million coins—the lowest since November 2018. While that can reduce short-term sell pressure, it also limits available liquidity for rapid upside moves.

BTC在交易所的餘額下降到260萬個硬幣，這是自2018年11月以來最低的。雖然這可以減輕短期賣出壓力，但它也限制了可用的流動性來進行快速上漲。

Independent market analyst Michael van de Poppe flagged rising global M2 supply as a macro factor worth watching. Historically, BTC price has followed M2 growth with a 12-week delay.

獨立的市場分析師邁克爾·范德·波普（Michael van de Poppe）將上升的全球M2供應標記為值得一看的宏觀因素。從歷史上看，BTC的價格隨著M2的增長而延遲了12週。

Long-Term Predictions Face Pushback

長期預測面臨回擊

Crypto Seth predicted BTC could reach $140,000–$180,000 in 2025 before correcting to the $50,000–$70,000 range in 2026.

Crypto Seth預測BTC在2025年可能達到140,000- $ 180,000，然後校正2026年的$ 50,000- $ 70,000。

“Bookmark this and revisit in 2026,” he wrote, calling for a long-term cyclical move.

他寫道：“書籤並在2026年進行重新訪問。”

However, veteran trader Peter Brandt dismissed such technical projections as unreliable.

但是，經驗豐富的商人彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）駁斥了不可靠的技術預測。

“Trendlines are the LEAST significant,” Brandt posted. “A break doesn’t signal a trend shift. Sorry.”

勃蘭特說：“趨勢線是最不重要的。” “休息並不意味著趨勢變化。對不起。”

Bitcoin’s structure suggests caution, not conviction. Bulls must push through $86,300 with real spot volume—not leverage-driven moves—to validate any trend change.

比特幣的結構表明謹慎，而不是信念。公牛必須以86,300美元的價格推出真正的斑點量（而不是槓桿驅動的動作），以驗證任何趨勢變化。