比特币：2100万枚何时会全部开采完毕，剩余供应耗尽后会发生什么？

虽然 2100 万枚比特币中的近 20 枚是在比特币诞生的头 14 年内开采出来的，但比特币的最后剩余部分要到 2140 年才会耗尽。

Nearly 20 million of the total 21 million bitcoins were mined within the first 14 years of Bitcoin’s existence. However, the last remaining fractions of Bitcoin will be mined only in 2140.

比特币总量 2100 万枚中，有近 2000 万枚是在比特币存在的头 14 年内开采的。然而，比特币的最后剩余部分要到 2140 年才会被开采。

The reason is that the Bitcoin emission is set to drop by 50% roughly once every four years every time another 210,000 blocks are mined. The drop in BTC emissions is referred to as “halving.”

原因是，每当另外开采 210,000 个区块时，比特币排放量大约每四年就会下降 50%。 BTC 排放量的下降被称为“减半”。

As of December 2024, each mined block unlocks 3.25 BTC as a mining reward. In 2140, this amount will drop below the smallest fraction of Bitcoin, known as Satoshi, a one-millionth particle of Bitcoin. As Satoshi is set to be a minimal fraction of Bitcoin, the 2140 halving will effectively stop the emission of bitcoins. 

截至 2024 年 12 月，每个开采区块解锁 3.25 BTC 作为挖矿奖励。到 2140 年，这一数额将降至比特币的最小部分（即比特币的百万分之一）“中本聪”以下。由于中本聪将占比特币的极小部分，因此 2140 年减半将有效阻止比特币的发行。

Mining is at the heart of the Bitcoin network’s validity and safety, while mining rewards are the prime incentive for miners to continue their troublesome operations. Happily, when the emission of new bitcoins stops, miners will still receive rewards. Instead of getting freshly minted coins, they will receive portions of the transaction fees charged from the senders. It’s worth saying that fees paid by senders for transaction prioritization already make up a substantial portion of miner rewards.

挖矿是比特币网络有效性和安全性的核心，而挖矿奖励是矿工继续进行麻烦操作​​的主要动力。令人高兴的是，当新比特币停止发行时，矿工仍将获得奖励。他们不会获得新铸造的硬币，而是会收到发送者收取的部分交易费用。值得一提的是，发送者为交易优先级支付的费用已经占了矿工奖励的很大一部分。

Why does the Bitcoin scarcity matter?

为什么比特币的稀缺性很重要？

While inflation is not inherently bad, as it drives the economy when healthy, Bitcoin is usually celebrated as a deflationary asset. While the government can print more dollars, thus decreasing the value of dollars you already hold, Bitcoin is coded in a way that its supply is immutable and limited to 21 million units. 

虽然通货膨胀本质上并不是坏事，因为它在健康时会推动经济发展，但比特币通常被视为通货紧缩资产。虽然政府可以印制更多的美元，从而降低你已经持有的美元的价值，但比特币的编码方式是其供应量是不可变的，并且限量为 2100 万单位。

As the overall amount of bitcoins will only go down with time as more and more units will ‘stuck’ in the shut wallets forever, it is believed that the value of each unit will only keep on rising.

由于比特币的总量只会随着时间的推移而下降，越来越多的单位将永远“卡在”关闭的钱包中，因此人们相信每个单位的价值只会继续上涨。

The stock-to-flow model proponents claim that scarcity drives value. However, it’s understood that scarcity is far from being the only or the main value driver. Can you draw a single unit of your own currency and expect it to be the most valued one due to extreme scarcity? Probably not. Given that Bitcoin is already enjoying a high value, its scarcity forces buyers to bid for each unit more. That’s the way halvings drive the BTC price up all the time.

库存流量模型的支持者声称稀缺性驱动价值。然而，据了解，稀缺性远不是唯一或主要的价值驱动因素。你能提取一个单位的本国货币，并期望它由于极度稀缺而成为最有价值的货币吗？可能不会。鉴于比特币已经享有很高的价值，其稀缺性迫使买家对每单位出价更高。这就是减半推动比特币价格不断上涨的方式。

Is it possible to remove the supply cap?

供应盖可以取下吗？

A three-minute educational video on Bitcoin, released by BlackRock in December 2024, stirred an online discussion over the possibility and implications of the supply hard cap removal.

贝莱德 (BlackRock) 于 2024 年 12 月发布了一段三分钟的比特币教育视频，引发了关于取消供应硬上限的可能性和影响的在线讨论。

The removal is not impossible, as the Bitcoin network’s structure has already been edited on various occasions through hard forking. So, if the community working on the Bitcoin improvements votes for making Bitcoin inflationary and makes necessary changes to the Bitcoin architecture–voilà–someday we can see inflationary Bitcoin.

删除并非不可能，因为比特币网络的结构已经通过硬分叉在各种场合进行了编辑。因此，如果致力于比特币改进的社区投票支持让比特币通胀，并对比特币架构做出必要的改变——瞧——有一天我们可以看到通胀的比特币。

The opponents of this move claim such changes would have turned Bitcoin into something completely different. More than that, they remind us that those who don’t want Bitcoin without a fixed supply can still use the classic version of Satoshi Nakamoto’s brainchild.

此举的反对者声称，这种变化将使比特币变成完全不同的东西。更重要的是，他们提醒我们，那些不想要没有固定供应量的比特币的人仍然可以使用中本聪创意的经典版本。