综合波动率指数分析说，在积累阶段的比特币市场

经过验证的加密分析师Axel Adler Jr.使用复合波动率指数（CVI）及其30天变更度量标准（一种使用比特币地址活动作为识别宏观周期的代理的方法）分享了对比特币市场当前阶段的见解。

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., known for his unique approach using the Composite Volatility Index (CVI) and its 30-day change to identify macro cycles in Bitcoin by observing address activity, has shared an interesting update.

Crypto分析师Axel Adler Jr.以他使用复合波动率指数（CVI）的独特方法而闻名，其30天更改通过观察地址活动来识别比特币中的宏观周期，并共享了一个有趣的更新。

According to Adler, the 30-day change in the Composite Volatility Index is currently at -3.5%, which signals that the market is in an accumulation phase.

根据阿德勒（Adler）的说法，复合波动率指数的30天变化目前为-3.5％，这表明市场处于累积阶段。

This framework is helpful for analysts to differentiate between phases of smart money participation and market anxiety or euphoria.

该框架对于分析师有助于区分智能货币参与和市场焦虑或欣快感的阶段。

As the chart shows, we observe repeated cycles from 2022 to 2025, where spikes above +15% (orange) often precede market tops or sharp corrections, while deep dips below 0% (pink) tend to occur before price recoveries or major uptrends.

如图所示，我们观察到从2022年到2025年的重复循环，在市场顶部或急剧校正之前，高于 +15％（橙色）的峰值越过，而深度下降到0％（粉红色）往往会发生在价格回收或重大上涨之前。

Currently, the 30D change is at -3.5%, which falls within the accumulation zone.

当前，30D变化为-3.5％，属于蓄能区。

The accumulation signal indicates low volatility, large players possibly quietly building positions, and the next major move being upwards if past trends continue. It also suggests a lack of panic selling or overheated speculation, presenting a more stable entry point for long-term positions.

累积信号表明波动性低，大玩家可能会悄悄地建立位置，如果过去的趋势继续下去，那么下一个主要举措就会向上。这也表明缺乏恐慌销售或过热的猜测，为长期职位提供了更稳定的切入点。