Axel Adler Jr., a verified crypto analyst, has shared insights into the current phase of the Bitcoin market using the Composite Volatility Index (CVI) and its 30-day change metric—an approach that uses Bitcoin address activity as a proxy for identifying macro cycles.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., known for his unique approach using the Composite Volatility Index (CVI) and its 30-day change to identify macro cycles in Bitcoin by observing address activity, has shared an interesting update.
According to Adler, the 30-day change in the Composite Volatility Index is currently at -3.5%, which signals that the market is in an accumulation phase.
This framework is helpful for analysts to differentiate between phases of smart money participation and market anxiety or euphoria.
As the chart shows, we observe repeated cycles from 2022 to 2025, where spikes above +15% (orange) often precede market tops or sharp corrections, while deep dips below 0% (pink) tend to occur before price recoveries or major uptrends.
Currently, the 30D change is at -3.5%, which falls within the accumulation zone.
The accumulation signal indicates low volatility, large players possibly quietly building positions, and the next major move being upwards if past trends continue. It also suggests a lack of panic selling or overheated speculation, presenting a more stable entry point for long-term positions.
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