比特币、Luke Dashjr 和救援工作：深入探讨最新进展

探讨 Luke Dashjr 关于比特币对个人的依赖、潜在的硬分叉以及对其未来的争论的警告。

Bitcoin's been buzzing lately, not just about price predictions and halving cycles, but also about the core infrastructure and the folks who keep it running. Let's dive into the drama surrounding Luke Dashjr, rescue efforts, and what it all means for the future of the OG crypto.

比特币最近很热闹，不仅涉及价格预测和减半周期，还涉及核心基础设施和维持其运行的人员。让我们深入了解有关 Luke Dashjr 的戏剧、救援工作以及这一切对 OG 加密货币的未来意味着什么。

Dashjr's Warnings: Bitcoin's One-Man Show?

Dashjr 的警告：比特币的独角戏？

Luke Dashjr, a Bitcoin OG, has been pretty vocal about his concerns. He's been involved in patching critical bugs and opposing controversial proposals. He's been feeling the heat, stating that Bitcoin can't survive if it depends on one person constantly stepping in to save the day. It's like relying on a single superhero to save the world every time a villain pops up – exhausting, right?

比特币 OG 成员 Luke Dashjr 直言不讳地表达了他的担忧。他参与了修复严重错误并反对有争议的提案。他一直感受到了压力，表示如果比特币依赖于一个人不断地介入来拯救世界，那么比特币就无法生存。这就像每次出现恶棍时都依靠一个超级英雄来拯救世界一样——很累，对吧？

Back in 2013, Dashjr helped squash a nasty inflation bug that could've split the blockchain. Fast forward to 2017, he stood against the SegWit2x hard fork, which aimed to double Bitcoin's block size. His resistance played a role in preserving Bitcoin's original vision.

早在 2013 年，Dashjr 就帮助解决了可能导致区块链分裂的严重通货膨胀问题。快进到 2017 年，他反对 SegWit2x 硬分叉，该分叉旨在将比特币的区块大小增加一倍。他的抵抗在维护比特币最初的愿景方面发挥了作用。

More recently, he's been sounding the alarm about Ordinals and inscriptions, citing risks to Bitcoin's UTXO set. He even claimed he tried to mitigate these issues before a spike in outputs but was hit by a hack. Talk about a rough patch!

最近，他对序数和铭文发出了警报，指出比特币 UTXO 集存在风险。他甚至声称，他试图在产量激增之前缓解这些问题，但遭到了黑客攻击。谈论一个艰难的补丁！

Hard Fork Controversy: Rewriting Bitcoin's History?

硬分叉争议：改写比特币历史？

Things got even spicier when leaked messages suggested Dashjr was discussing a hard fork to retroactively remove on-chain content classified as CSAM. The idea involves a trusted multisig quorum that could mark transactions and replace them with zero-knowledge proofs. This would allow nodes to verify the transaction's validity without storing the controversial content. However, this requires changing the consensus rules, which is a huge deal.

当泄露的消息表明 Dashjr 正在讨论硬分叉以追溯删除归类为 CSAM 的链上内容时，事情变得更加激烈。这个想法涉及一个可信的多重签名法定人数，可以标记交易并用零知识证明代替它们。这将允许节点验证交易的有效性，而无需存储有争议的内容。然而，这需要改变共识规则，这是一件大事。

Critics argue that this approach could centralize control of Bitcoin, undermining its decentralized nature. Dashjr has dismissed these claims as “fabricated nonsense.”

批评者认为，这种方法可能会集中控制比特币，破坏其去中心化性质。 Dashjr 驳斥了这些说法，称其为“无稽之谈”。

The big question is whether modifying stored data aligns with Bitcoin's core principle of immutability. Hard forks are usually a last resort, and they require massive consensus from developers, miners, and the whole ecosystem. It's like trying to change the foundation of a building after it's already been built – risky and complicated.

最大的问题是修改存储的数据是否符合比特币不变性的核心原则。硬分叉通常是最后的手段，需要开发者、矿工和整个生态系统的大量共识。这就像在建筑物建成后试图改变其地基一样——风险很大且复杂。

Hayes's Hot Take: Is the Bitcoin Cycle Dead?

海耶斯的热门观点：比特币周期已经结束了吗？

Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO, threw another curveball into the mix. He argues that the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle might be losing its grip due to monetary policy shifts and rising fiat liquidity. According to Hayes, past bear markets were driven more by monetary tightening than by halving mechanics. The halving remains relevant, but other factors can amplify or mute its effects.

BitMEX 前首席执行官阿瑟·海耶斯 (Arthur Hayes) 又抛出了另一个难题。他认为，由于货币政策的转变和法定流动性的增加，经典的四年比特币周期可能会失去控制。海耶斯表示，过去的熊市更多是由货币紧缩而非减半机制推动的。减半仍然具有相关性，但其他因素可能会放大或减弱其影响。

Hayes suggests that investors should look beyond calendar dates and combine on-chain supply metrics with macro indicators, derivatives positioning, and institutional flow data. In other words, don't just rely on the halving – keep an eye on the bigger picture.

海耶斯建议投资者应该超越日历日期，将链上供应指标与宏观指标、衍生品头寸和机构流量数据结合起来。换句话说，不要只依赖减半——要关注更大的前景。

The Bottom Line

底线

Bitcoin's future is anything but boring. From Luke Dashjr's warnings about centralization to the hard fork debate and Arthur Hayes's cycle theories, there's plenty to keep an eye on. Whether the four-year cycle fades depends on how much monetary policy and liquidity flows dominate price formation.

比特币的未来绝不是无聊的。从 Luke Dashjr 对中心化的警告到硬分叉辩论和 Arthur Hayes 的周期理论，有很多值得关注的地方。四年周期是否消失取决于货币政策和流动性流动在多大程度上主导价格形成。

So, buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! It's gonna be a wild ride. One thing's for sure: Bitcoin continues to evolve, and the debates and discussions are far from over. And hey, maybe one day we'll all be sipping margaritas on a beach, reminiscing about the good old days of Bitcoin drama. Until then, stay informed and keep your crypto close!

所以，系好安全带，加密货币爱好者！这将是一次疯狂的旅程。有一点是肯定的：比特币仍在不断发展，争论和讨论还远未结束。嘿，也许有一天我们都会在海滩上喝玛格丽塔酒，回忆比特币戏剧的美好时光。在那之前，请随时了解情况并保管好您的加密货币！