比特币：据顶级经济学家称

经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）认为，比特币可能会进入强大的短期集会

Top economist and hedge fund manager Timothy Peterson has weighed in on Bitcoin's potential price movements in the next 90 days, considering a unique macroeconomic factor: U.S. High Yield interest rates.

考虑到一个独特的宏观经济因素：美国高收益利率，顶级经济学家和对冲基金经理蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）在接下来的90天内对比特币的潜在价格变动进行了权衡。

As Peterson, the founder of Cornerstone Macro, explained in a recent analysis, his firm's data shows that when High Yield rates exceeded 8%—a threshold currently being tested—the world's leading cryptocurrency displayed a remarkable capacity for recovery.

正如基石宏的创始人彼得森（Peterson）在最近的一项分析中所解释的那样，他的公司的数据表明，当高收益率超过8％（目前正在测试的阈值）时，全球领先的加密货币将表现出显着的恢复能力。

Out of 38 periods since 2010 when this scenario occurred and High Yield trailed 8% for at least 30 days, Bitcoin on average reaped a 71% return over the following three months, with a median gain of 31%. The worst loss during those periods was just 16%.

自2010年以来的38个时期中，这种情况发生，高收益率至少落后30天，比特币平均在接下来的三个月中获得了71％的回报，中位数增长了31％。在那段时间里最严重的损失仅为16％。

With Bitcoin currently trading around $50,000, this average return from 8% High Yield would put the price between $75,000 and $138,000 in 90 days' time.

随着比特币目前的交易约50,000美元，该平均收益率从8％的高收益率将使价格在90天内的75,000美元至138,000美元之间。

However, Peterson also highlighted a key shift in market behavior: the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index has reached record levels. While not directly causal, this link reflects how both assets are now being driven by tight liquidity, elevated real interest rates, and risk-averse sentiment.

但是，彼得森还强调了市场行为的关键转变：比特币与美元指数之间的相关性达到了创纪录的水平。尽管不是直接因果关系，但此链接反映了现在两个资产的流动性，实际利率升高和规避风险的情绪如何驱动。

“These are macro stress signals—and Bitcoin is reacting just like any major asset class would under pressure,” Peterson said.

彼得森说：“这些是宏观压力信号，比特币正在做出反应，就像任何主要资产类别都在压力下一样。”

While this strong correlation is expected to break down later this year as interest rates stabilize and liquidity improves, Peterson anticipates Bitcoin decoupling and resuming a steeper uptrend.

尽管随着利率稳定和流动性的提高，预计今年晚些时候这种牢固的相关性将分解，但彼得森预计比特币将脱耦并恢复更陡峭的上升趋势。

With historical patterns, tightening conditions, and investor behavior aligning, Peterson's analysis points to a possible short-term breakout for BTC—even in the face of ongoing economic headwinds.

彼得森的分析随着历史模式，紧缩条件和投资者行为的结算，即使面对持续的经济逆风，BTC可能会出现短期突破。