Bitcoin: How Low Can The Price go in the Next 90 Days, According to Top Economist

Economist Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin may be heading into a powerful short-term rally

Top economist and hedge fund manager Timothy Peterson has weighed in on Bitcoin's potential price movements in the next 90 days, considering a unique macroeconomic factor: U.S. High Yield interest rates.

As Peterson, the founder of Cornerstone Macro, explained in a recent analysis, his firm's data shows that when High Yield rates exceeded 8%—a threshold currently being tested—the world's leading cryptocurrency displayed a remarkable capacity for recovery.

Out of 38 periods since 2010 when this scenario occurred and High Yield trailed 8% for at least 30 days, Bitcoin on average reaped a 71% return over the following three months, with a median gain of 31%. The worst loss during those periods was just 16%.

With Bitcoin currently trading around $50,000, this average return from 8% High Yield would put the price between $75,000 and $138,000 in 90 days' time.

However, Peterson also highlighted a key shift in market behavior: the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index has reached record levels. While not directly causal, this link reflects how both assets are now being driven by tight liquidity, elevated real interest rates, and risk-averse sentiment.

“These are macro stress signals—and Bitcoin is reacting just like any major asset class would under pressure,” Peterson said.

While this strong correlation is expected to break down later this year as interest rates stabilize and liquidity improves, Peterson anticipates Bitcoin decoupling and resuming a steeper uptrend.

With historical patterns, tightening conditions, and investor behavior aligning, Peterson's analysis points to a possible short-term breakout for BTC—even in the face of ongoing economic headwinds.