比特币减半：尽管矿工们感到恐惧，但比特币的完整性不可或缺

For over a decade, the quadrennial Bitcoin (BTC) halving event has delighted early Bitcoin hodlers while striking fear into inefficient crypto miners. 

十多年来，四年一度的比特币减半事件让早期的比特币持有者感到高兴，同时也让低效的加密货币矿工感到恐惧。

And while some may even be secretly hoping for an end to the profitability slashing (which has even bankrupted companies in the past), most miners agree — it’s what makes Bitcoin special, and it’s not going anywhere.

尽管有些人甚至可能私下希望结束利润大幅削减（这在过去甚至导致公司破产），但大多数矿工都同意——这就是比特币的特殊之处，而且它不会消失。

“We as miners embrace halvings and cherish them — but of course, we fear them a bit too,” said Kristian Csepcsar, chief of propaganda at the Bitcoin mining infrastructure firm Braiins.

比特币挖矿基础设施公司 Braiins 的宣传主管克里斯蒂安·切普萨 (Kristian Csepcsar) 表示：“作为矿工，我们拥抱减半并珍惜它们，但当然，我们也有点担心它们。”

There have been concerns that the Bitcoin halving event, set for April 20, could lead to some Bitcoin miners going under — particularly if the price of Bitcoin fails to exceed the cost of mining.

有人担心，定于 4 月 20 日举行的比特币减半事件可能会导致一些比特币矿商破产——特别是如果比特币的价格未能超过挖矿成本的话。

“Miners are true Bitcoiners at heart,” said Csepcsar. “So even though halvings put extreme pressure on the mining industry as a whole we all understand why halvings are an integral part of the Bitcoin design.”

“矿工本质上是真正的比特币爱好者，”Csepcsar 说。 “因此，尽管减半给整个采矿业带来了极大的压力，但我们都明白为什么减半是比特币设计中不可或缺的一部分。”

Some Bitcoin mining firms like Hut 8 said they look at the halving as an opportunity to double down on growth and strengthen competitiveness, according to CEO Asher Genoot.

资料来源：Braiins 首席执行官 Asher Genoot 表示，Hut 8 等一些比特币挖矿公司表示，他们将减半视为加倍增长和增强竞争力的机会。

“We have prepared for the halving with a comprehensive restructuring of the business and focus on being a low-cost operator,” Genoot told Cointelegraph.

“我们已经为减半做好了准备，对业务进行全面重组，并专注于成为低成本运营商，”Genoot 告诉 Cointelegraph。

He added that Hut 8 mines “only when it is profitable” using its proprietary software and maintains a strong balance sheet with more than 9,100 BTC that enables it to maintain stability while investing in growth.

他补充说，Hut 8 使用其专有软件“仅在盈利时”进行挖矿，并保持着超过 9,100 BTC 的强劲资产负债表，这使其能够在投资增长的同时保持稳定。

Hashlabs Mining co-founder Jaran Mellerud believes that Bitcoin miners would probably love the idea of scrapping the halving. However, the Bitcoin network is not controlled by miners, but by node operators, he stressed, adding:

Hashlabs Mining 联合创始人 Jaran Mellerud 认为，比特币矿工可能会喜欢取消减半的想法。然而，他强调，比特币网络不是由矿工控制，而是由节点运营商控制，并补充道：

“Bitcoin was not made for the miners, but for the hodlers.”

Would it be possible to scrap halving?

Like any change to Bitcoin, it is theoretically possible to do away with the halving if you have a hard fork.

“比特币不是为矿工而生，而是为持有者而生。” 可以取消减半吗？就像对比特币的任何改变一样，如果有硬分叉，理论上可以取消减半。

However, most think it would be “next to impossible” to reach the consensus required to make the change, while others, such as argues that the resulting product, by design, won’t be Bitcoin anymore.

然而，大多数人认为“几乎不可能”达成做出改变所需的共识，而其他人则认为，从设计上来说，最终的产品将不再是比特币。

“It would break one of the key features that every Bitcoiner loves about Bitcoin: it will have less supply inflation than gold, and continue that deflationary trend,” Batten told Cointelegraph.

Batten 告诉 Cointelegraph：“这将打破每个比特币爱好者都喜爱比特币的关键特征之一：它的供应通胀将低于黄金，并会延续通货紧缩趋势。”

“One of the main reasons investors are attracted to Bitcoin is its limited supply of 21 million coins, and this is also what makes Bitcoin unique,” added Hashlabs Mining co-founder Jaran Mellerud.

Hashlabs Mining 联合创始人 Jaran Mellerud 补充道：“比特币吸引投资者的主要原因之一是其 2100 万枚比特币的供应量有限，这也是比特币的独特之处。”

He suggested that the Bitcoin market cap would likely be much smaller if there were no halvings and limited supply, and miners would not benefit from the higher block subsidy.

他表示，如果没有减半且供应有限，比特币市值可能会小得多，矿工也不会从更高的区块补贴中受益。

Csepcsar from Braiins argues that removing the halving from Bitcoin’s code is virtually impossible.

比特币通货膨胀率与时间的关系。来源：BitcoinBlockHalf 来自 Braiins 的 Csepcsar 认为，从比特币代码中删除减半几乎是不可能的。

“Change of this magnitude to the core architecture of bitcoin is next to impossible today,” Csepcsar said, adding:

“在今天，对比特币核心架构进行如此大规模的改变几乎是不可能的，”Csepcsar 说道，并补充道：

“Putting everybody into consensus and changing such a core principle of bitcoin is impossible in any short time frame such as a few years. What will be the case in 10 years and more is another matter and nobody has an answer to that.”

Some miners may support the idea of eliminating halvings but full nodes may not, and nodes have significant control over the Bitcoin network, according to New Layer Capital’s general partner Nicholas Safford.

“让每个人达成共识并改变比特币的核心原则在短短几年内是不可能的。 10 年甚至更长时间后的情况是另一回事，没有人能回答这个问题。” 据 New 报道，一些矿工可能支持消除减半的想法，但完整节点可能不会，而且节点对比特币网络拥有重大控制权。 Layer Capital 的普通合伙人尼古拉斯·萨福德 (Nicholas Safford)。

“If a group of miners wanted to implement such a proposal, they would need to hard fork the Bitcoin network, after which point, the new cryptocurrency would cease to be Bitcoin,” he stated.

他表示：“如果一群矿工想要实施这样的提议，他们需要对比特币网络进行硬分叉，之后，新的加密货币将不再是比特币。”

Miners fear the halving, but they don’t hate it

Bitcoin halvings have been historically associated with bullish sentiment as BTC prices surged to new all-time highs after halvings. However, there’s also a fear that the halving would raise the operational costs of mining Bitcoin, hurting profitability.

矿工担心减半，但他们并不讨厌比特币减半在历史上一直与看涨情绪联系在一起，因为比特币价格在减半后飙升至历史新高。然而，人们也担心减半会增加比特币开采的运营成本，从而损害盈利能力。

On the halving date, for a miner whose cost of mining 1 BTC was $35,000 per BTC, the cost would suddenly increase overnight to $70,000 per BTC, New Layer Capital’s Safford explained.

New Layer Capital 的 Safford 解释说，在减半日，对于开采 1 BTC 的成本为每 BTC 35,000 美元的矿工来说，成本会在一夜之间突然增加到每 BTC 70,000 美元。

“This miner is no longer profitable as the market value of 1 BTC — currently around $65,000 — is no longer enough to cover the cost to mine 1 BTC,” he said, adding:

减半后的矿工收入。资料来源：Visual Capitalist “这家矿机不再盈利，因为 1 BTC 的市场价值（目前约为 65,000 美元）已不足以支付开采 1 BTC 的成本，”他说，并补充道：

Related: Bitcoin needs to hold above $80,000 to keep mining profitable post-halving

相关：比特币需要保持在 80,000 美元以上才能在减半后保持挖矿盈利

“Halving inevitably leads to several unsustainably high-cost miners — due to high electricity rate, less efficient ASICs, high overheads and so on — dropping off the network.”

“减半不可避免地会导致一些不可持续的高成本矿商——由于高电价、低效率的 ASIC、高管理费用等——退出网络。”

So, Bitcoin halvings are probably here to stay

Industry executives and advocates are confident that halvings are eventually beneficial and are here to stay.

因此，比特币减半可能会持续下去。行业高管和拥护者相信，减半最终是有益的，并且会持续下去。

“Halvings are the economic catalysts that ensure a smooth curve toward the 21 million Bitcoin supply cap and the need for continuously improving energy efficiency,” Bitfarms’ chief mining officer Ben Gagnon told Cointelegraph.

Bitfarms 首席挖矿官 Ben Gagnon 告诉 Cointelegraph：“减半是经济催化剂，可确保比特币供应上限平稳地实现 2100 万枚，并满足不断提高能源效率的需要。”

The total global mining activity in USD terms has grown exponentially each halving epoch despite the block reward halving every four years, Gagnon noted.

加格农指出，尽管区块奖励每四年减半，但以美元计算的全球挖矿活动总量在每个减半时期都呈指数级增长。

Gagnon also pointed out that there are many coins that don’t have halving events and opted for linear growth of coin supply. “They have not done well against Bitcoin,” the exec stated.

加密货币挖矿市场规模，2022年至2032年。来源：Precedence统计 Gagnon还指出，有很多币种没有减半事件，而是选择了币种供应的线性增长。 “他们在对抗比特币方面表现不佳，”该高管表示。

“The whole point of the Bitcoin Network is that the code is law, and it will not be changed,” said SunnySide Digital founder and CEO Taras Kulyk.

SunnySide Digital 创始人兼首席执行官 Taras Kulyk 表示：“比特币网络的重点是代码就是法律，不会改变。”

“What will happen in more than 10 years, really nobody can tell. But I would still not bet on any dramatic changes like changing the 21 million cap or removing halvings altogether,” Csepcsar told Cointelegraph. He added:

“十几年后会发生什么，真的没有人能说得清。但我仍然不会押注任何重大变化，例如改变 2100 万上限或完全取消减半，”Csepcsar 告诉 Cointelegraph。他加了：

“Bitcoin either has to survive these harsh situations or is not the antifragile freedom tool that we all want it to be.”

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

“比特币要么必须在这些严峻的情况下生存，要么就不是我们都希望它成为的反脆弱自由工具。”杂志：如何在动荡的市场中保护您的加密货币 - 比特币 OG 和专家发表意见