比特币减半重塑挖矿经济和安全

比特币减半定于明天美国东部时间上午 9:31 进行，矿工的区块奖励将减少 50%，引发人们对比特币安全预算的担忧。虽然交易费用定期飙升，但其波动性和对投机活动的依赖对矿商的盈利能力构成了挑战。尽管减半有可能限制供应，但由于供应量减少幅度较小且算力弹性增加，对比特币价格的影响可能会减弱。如果交易费用不大幅增加或代币价格上涨，哈希率可能会收缩，从而威胁比特币的安全，除非 L2 解决方案或区块空间的替代用例成为可行的解决方案。

Bitcoin's Halving: A Paradigm Shift in Mining Economics and Security

比特币减半：矿业经济和安全的范式转变

April 17, 2024

2024 年 4 月 17 日

Tomorrow, the highly anticipated quadrennial Bitcoin Halving is scheduled to occur at approximately 9:31 AM EST, marking a significant event in the cryptocurrency's history. This algorithmic adjustment will reduce the block rewards paid to miners by 50%, significantly altering the economic landscape of Bitcoin mining.

明天，备受期待的四年一度的比特币减半计划于美国东部时间上午 9:31 左右发生，这标志着加密货币历史上的一个重大事件。这一算法调整将使支付给矿工的区块奖励减少 50%，从而显着改变比特币挖矿的经济格局。

Implications for Miner Profitability

对矿工盈利能力的影响

Bitcoin miners, driven primarily by profit motives, will only continue operating if the combined revenue from inflationary block rewards and transaction fees exceeds their operational costs. The Halving will drastically curtail these emissions, forcing miners to rely heavily on transaction fees to sustain their operations.

主要受利润动机驱动的比特币矿商只有在通胀性区块奖励和交易费用的总收入超过其运营成本时才会继续运营。减半将大幅减少这些排放，迫使矿工严重依赖交易费来维持运营。

Volatility of Transaction Fees

交易费用的波动性

While transaction fees have fluctuated significantly in the past year, reaching up to 74% of the block reward during the height of BRC-20 mania, they exhibit extreme volatility. This revenue stream has historically demonstrated periods of extreme lows, with transaction fees comprising less than 1% of the block reward for nearly six months following the previous peak.

尽管交易费用在过去一年中波动很大，在 BRC-20 狂热高峰期间达到了区块奖励的 74%，但它们表现出极大的波动性。从历史上看，这一收入流曾经历过极低时期，在上一个峰值之后的近六个月内，交易费用占区块奖励的比例还不到 1%。

Speculative Demand: A Double-Edged Sword

投机需求：一把双刃剑

Speculative demand for various forms of tokens and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on Bitcoin has been a key driver of transaction fees. This demand surged alongside a rally in risk markets in late October, and again this month as traders bet on the emergence of Runes, a novel fungible token standard on Bitcoin.

对比特币各种形式代币和不可替代代币（NFT）的投机需求一直是交易费用的关键驱动因素。这种需求随着 10 月底风险市场的上涨而激增，本月又因交易员押注符文（一种新型的比特币可替代代币标准）的出现而出现飙升。

However, as evidenced by numerous boom-and-bust cycles in the cryptocurrency market, speculative fervor is often short-lived. NFTs built on Ethereum experienced a similar decline in value and liquidity during the previous bear market, despite initially commanding exorbitant prices.

然而，正如加密货币市场的无数繁荣与萧条周期所证明的那样，投机热情往往是短暂的。尽管最初价格过高，但基于以太坊构建的 NFT 在上一次熊市期间也经历了类似的价值和流动性下降。

The Plight of Memecoins and Vaporware

Memecoin 和 Vaporware 的困境

In recent months, traders seeking extraordinary returns flocked to memecoins and other vaporous assets. However, the past two weeks have witnessed a precipitous decline in the prices of these tokens, including those associated with Runes. This cycle is likely to repeat, leaving many HODLers disappointed as their investments evaporate into thin air.

近几个月来，寻求非凡回报的交易者纷纷涌向模因币和其他流动资产。然而，过去两周，这些代币的价格急剧下跌，包括与符文相关的代币。这种循环很可能会重复，让许多持有者感到失望，因为他们的投资化为泡影。

Zero Assumption for Transaction Fees

交易费用零假设

Given the extreme volatility and unpredictable nature of Bitcoin's transaction fee revenue, analysts often simplify this value to zero for ease of analysis. This assumption underscores the precarious situation miners will face after the Halving.

鉴于比特币交易费收入的极端波动性和不可预测性，分析师通常将该值简化为零，以便于分析。这一假设凸显了矿工在减半后将面临的不稳定处境。

Economic Equilibrium: An Elusive Goal

经济均衡：一个难以实现的目标

In previous Halvings, Bitcoin miners have never achieved an equilibrium where they earn more BTC-denominated rewards. Instead, the network's hash rate, a measure of computing power securing the network, typically declines after the event before rebounding as the supply restriction leads to price appreciation, attracting more miners despite their reduced BTC earnings.

在之前的减半中，比特币矿工从未达到获得更多以比特币计价的奖励的平衡。相反，网络的哈希率（衡量网络安全的计算能力的指标）通常会在事件发生后下降，然后随着供应限制导致价格升值而反弹，尽管比特币收益减少，但仍然吸引了更多矿工。

Halving Impact: Smaller Than Ever

减半影响：比以往任何时候都小

This Halving, however, presents a different scenario. The reduction in block emissions will be the smallest yet, at 3.125 BTC per block, resulting in a daily supply reduction of approximately 450 BTC, or $27M at current market prices.

然而，这次减半呈现出不同的情况。区块排放量的减少将是迄今为止最小的，为每个区块 3.125 BTC，导致每日供应量减少约 450 BTC，即按当前市场价格计算 2700 万美元。

Implications for Market Price and Security

对市场价格和安全的影响

While the supply reduction from this Halving is far smaller than in the past, it will still place significant pressure on miners. The consensus expects a prolonged contraction in the network's hash rate, potentially compromising Bitcoin's security.

虽然本次减半带来的供应量减少幅度远小于过去，但仍会给矿商带来巨大压力。共识预计网络算力将长期收缩，这可能会损害比特币的安全。

Hope for Layer-2 Solutions

对第 2 层解决方案的希望

Bitcoin enthusiasts pin their hopes on Layer-2 (L2) solutions to mitigate this security risk. These solutions aim to increase transaction throughput on the Bitcoin network, potentially generating additional revenue for miners. However, the majority of these chains are still in their early stages of development, and even if fully operational, their transaction fees are unlikely to fully offset the loss of emissions.

比特币爱好者将希望寄托在第 2 层 (L2) 解决方案上，以减轻这种安全风险。这些解决方案旨在提高比特币网络的交易吞吐量，从而有可能为矿工带来额外收入。然而，这些链中的大多数仍处于发展的早期阶段，即使全面运营，其交易费用也不太可能完全抵消排放损失。

Ethereum's L2s: A Cautious Precedent

以太坊的 L2：一个谨慎的先例

Ethereum's L2s, which are more mature than Bitcoin's, generated only $33M in fees to the Ethereum mainnet in February 2024, roughly equivalent to one day of lost miner revenue on Bitcoin. This suggests that L2s alone may not be sufficient to solve the problem.

以太坊的 L2 比比特币更成熟，2024 年 2 月仅向以太坊主网产生了 3300 万美元的费用，大致相当于比特币矿工一天收入的损失。这表明仅 L2 可能不足以解决问题。

A Combination of Factors Needed

所需因素的组合

To maintain the same level of hash rate post-Halving, Bitcoin likely requires a combination of increased transaction fees and a higher token price. However, both factors face headwinds going forward.

为了在减半后保持相同的算力水平，比特币可能需要增加交易费用和更高的代币价格。然而，这两个因素未来都面临阻力。

Price Suppression and Instability

价格压制和不稳定

The Halving is often seen as a catalyst for price appreciation, but a failure of historical patterns to hold could shake bearish sentiment. The current downturn in Bitcoin's price, coupled with the lack of viable L2 solutions, threatens to extinguish speculative on-chain activity, further eroding miner revenue.

减半通常被视为价格上涨的催化剂，但历史模式的失败可能会动摇看跌情绪。当前比特币价格的低迷，加上缺乏可行的 L2 解决方案，有可能消除链上投机活动，进一步侵蚀矿工收入。

The Ethereum Merge: A Cautionary Tale

以太坊合并：一个警示故事

Ethereum's Merge in 2022 demonstrated the potential for emissions reductions to fail in stimulating price appreciation. A similar outcome for Bitcoin could have devastating consequences for its economic security, potentially forcing changes to the BTC issuance curve and challenging its status as the leading blockchain.

以太坊 2022 年的合并证明了减排可能无法刺激价格升值。比特币的类似结果可能对其经济安全产生毁灭性后果，可能迫使比特币发行曲线发生变化，并挑战其作为领先区块链的地位。

Conclusion: A Test of Bitcoin's Resilience

结论：比特币弹性的测试

Bitcoin's long-term viability depends on its ability to adapt to changing market conditions and technological advancements. The upcoming Halving will be a crucial test of Bitcoin's resilience as it faces new economic challenges and threats to its security.

比特币的长期生存能力取决于其适应不断变化的市场条件和技术进步的能力。即将到来的减半将是对比特币弹性的重大考验，因为它面临着新的经济挑战和安全威胁。

Development efforts may have come too late to prevent near-term instability, but the future of Bitcoin remains uncertain. It is possible that the 21m BTC cap will be removed or that Bitcoin will transition to a Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism. Alternatively, the Bitcoin chain could sunset, with BTC surviving as an ERC-20 token on Ethereum. Only time will tell which path Bitcoin will ultimately take.

开发工作可能来得太晚，无法防止近期的不稳定，但比特币的未来仍然不确定。 2100 万比特币的上限可能会被取消，或者比特币将过渡到权益证明共识机制。或者，比特币链可能会日落，而 BTC 作为以太坊上的 ERC-20 代币继续存在。只有时间才能告诉我们比特币最终会走哪条路。