比特币是新黄金。但是它的行为并不像黄金

多年来，密码寄生的人将比特币称为“新黄金”。论点通常会这样：“像黄金，比特币不能成为

Crypto enthusiasts have long dubbed Bitcoin "the new gold." The argument usually goes something like this: "Like gold, Bitcoin can't be printed (mining is complex and supply limited)," or "Every four years, the mining reward halves, mimicking the scarcity of gold."

加密爱好者长期以来将比特币称为“新黄金”。该论点通常是这样的：“像黄金，比特币无法打印（采矿是复杂的，供应有限的）”或“每四年，采矿奖励的一半，模仿了黄金的稀缺性”。

However, despite this comparison, Bitcoin has not behaved exactly like gold. In turbulent times, Bitcoin has tended to fall along with other risk assets, while gold has typically strengthened.

但是，尽管进行了比较，但比特币的表现并不完全像黄金。在动荡的时期，比特币倾向于与其他风险资产一起跌落，而黄金通常会增强。

For example, last year, during the Iranian attack on Israel, Bitcoin fell sharply while gold prices rose. This pattern didn't change much afterwards: when the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones fell, Bitcoin plunged along with them.

例如，去年，在伊朗对以色列的袭击中，比特币急剧下降，而黄金价格上涨。此后，这种模式并没有太大变化：当标准普尔500指数，纳斯达克和道琼斯掉落时，比特币随身携带时。

It almost seemed like the case was closed: the myth of Bitcoin as a "digital safe haven" was debunked, and the narrative faded. But just because something didn't work in the past doesn't mean it can't work in the future. Paradigms shift, and the current conditions are perfect for that to happen.

案件似乎已经结束了：比特币的神话是“数字避风港”被揭穿，叙述消失了。但是，仅仅因为过去不起作用并不意味着它将将来无法正常工作。范式转移，当前条件非常适合发生这种情况。

Along with the nervousness in the stock market, the U.S. dollar index fell. Many interpret this as a loss of confidence in the dollar.

随着股票市场的紧张感，美元指数下降了。许多人将其解释为对美元的信心丧失。

With the price of gold already approaching record highs — close to $3,500 per ounce on Tuesday — the debate has resurfaced: maybe it's time to run to Bitcoin. After all, Bitcoin price won't "crash... or will it?

随着黄金的价格已经接近创纪录的高点 - 周二每盎司近3,500美元 - 辩论已经浮出水面：也许是时候跑到比特币了。毕竟，比特币价格不会“崩溃……还是会的？

As long as strong demand persists, it shouldn't, but it should always be remembered that Bitcoin is not backed by anything tangible like stocks. If the influx of new capital dries up, the pyramid risks collapsing. Unlike traditional assets, there is no underlying cash flow, dividend, or utility value anchoring the price.

只要强劲的需求持续下去，就不应该，但是应该始终记住比特币没有像股票那样有形的任何东西的支持。如果新资本的涌入枯竭，金字塔可能会崩溃。与传统资产不同，没有基本的现金流，股息或公用事业价值锚定价格。

Looking ahead, U.S. Treasury yields are rising, which goes against the usual trend in times of uncertainty. This may indicate a breakdown of the traditional paradigm: Treasuries no longer look like a safe haven. In that environment, Bitcoin could have room to attract new minds.

展望未来，美国财政收益率正在上升，这违背了不确定性时期的通常趋势。这可能表明传统范式的崩溃：国库看起来不再像避风港。在那种环境中，比特币可能有吸引新思维的空间。

On the other hand, if Trump doubles down on his protectionist rhetoric and continues to attack Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to push for rate cuts, Bitcoin could get another boost. Against this backdrop, some (including Arthur Hayes) predict considerable growth if that happens, with prices above $95,000.

另一方面，如果特朗普对他的贸易保护主义言论加倍，并继续攻击美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）以削减税率，那么比特币可能会再次提高。在此背景下，有些（包括亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes））可以预测，如果发生这种情况，价格超过95,000美元。

On the other hand, it's also worth considering that if Trump backs down on his tariff standoff with China, some of the money currently in crypto could flow back into the stock market — the same with the commodities.

另一方面，还值得考虑的是，如果特朗普撤回与中国的关税对峙，那么当前在加密货币的一些钱可能会回到股市，而商品也是如此。