比特币进入其发展的新阶段

经过多年被解雇为投机技术游戏，比特币现在正在被机构参与者和财富管理人员重新评估

Several prominent investors are suggesting that Bitcoin, now valued around $2 trillion, may be entering a new phase in its evolution, one that could see its total market capitalization rival gold's $22 trillion dominance.

几位著名的投资者暗示，现在价值约2万亿美元的比特币可能正在进入其发展阶段，这可能会看到其总市值竞争对手的总资本化竞争对手的22万亿美元的统治地位。

After years of being dismissed as a speculative tech play, Bitcoin is now being re-evaluated by institutional players and wealth managers like Paul Tudor Jones, who has bought the coin personally for his portfolio. They are considering it less as a payment tool or a venture capital asset and more as a form of digital wealth preservation. That shift in perception could drastically reshape how the market values it over the

经过多年被解雇为投机性技术游戏，比特币现在被像Paul Tudor Jones这样的机构参与者和财富管理人员重新评估，Paul Tudor Jones是为自己的投资组合亲自购买了硬币的。他们将其视为付款工具或风险资本资产，而将其作为数字财富保存形式的形式。这种感知的转变可以大大重塑市场如何重视它

Among the investors driving this narrative is Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, who has become a vocal proponent of Bitcoin's potential to rise further. In a recent interview, he suggested that if the cryptocurrency continues to be seen through the lens of traditional technology assets, its market ceiling likely falls somewhere between $1 trillion and $3 trillion.

在推动这种叙述的投资者中，有Skybridge Capital的创始人Anthony Scaramucci已成为比特币进一步崛起潜力的声音支持者。在最近的一次采访中，他建议，如果加密货币通过传统技术资产的角度继续观察，其市场上限可能会在1万亿美元至3万亿美元之间。

This would put Bitcoin in the same league as large-cap tech giants like Apple or Microsoft, which are commonly valued in the $1 trillion to $3 trillion range. However, Scaramucci believes that if it's instead treated as a modern store of value, then the comparison changes dramatically.

这将使比特币与苹果或微软等大型技术巨头相同，这些巨头通常以1万亿美元至3万亿美元的价格价值。但是，Scaramucci认为，如果将其视为现代价值存储，那么比较会发生巨大变化。

In that case, he argues, Bitcoin's valuation should eventually track gold's, implying a 10x jump from today's levels. That would mean a price tag of nearly $1 million per coin, a figure that may seem astronomical but isn't impossible considering the rapid pace of technological and financial innovation.

他认为，在这种情况下，比特币的估值最终应该跟踪Gold的估值，这意味着从今天的水平上升了10倍。这意味着每枚硬币的价格近100万美元，这一数字似乎是天文学的，但是考虑到技术和金融创新的速度，并非不可能。

This view, once considered outlandish, is increasingly mentioned by other institutional investors who have revised their long-term models to account for what they see as a maturing, less speculative market for crypto.

曾经被认为是古怪的观点，其他机构投资者越来越多地提到了他们的长期模型，以说明他们认为是加密货币的成熟，推测性较低的市场。

If that evolution continues, two indicators will become increasingly important: user adoption and price stability. A rise in long-term holders and a decline in volatility would support the argument that Bitcoin is no longer a playground for speculators, but a tool for wealth preservation.

如果该演变继续进行，则两个指标将变得越来越重要：用户采用和价格稳定性。长期持有人的上升和波动率的下降将支持以下论点：比特币不再是投机者的游乐场，而是保存财富的工具。

At present, estimates suggest that around 200 million active wallets exist globally, with roughly 100 million individual holders. To reach the kind of scale that would support a $20 trillion market cap, those numbers may need to grow nearly tenfold — putting Bitcoin in the hands of about one out of every eight people on Earth.

目前，估计表明，全球约有2亿个活动钱包，大约有1亿个单个持有人。为了达到支撑20万亿美元市值的规模，这些数字可能需要增长近十倍，将比特币掌握在地球上每八个人中的大约一个。

For now, that goal remains distant. But with each new round of adoption, the digital gold thesis edges closer to reality. And if the shift in mindset sticks, Bitcoin may ultimately find itself less compared to high-growth tech and more aligned with one of humanity's oldest measures of wealth.

就目前而言，这个目标仍然很远。但是，随着每一轮采用的新一轮，数字黄金论文都更接近现实。而且，如果思维定态的转变，比特币最终可能会发现自己比高增长技术要少，而与人类最古老的财富度量之一相吻合。