比特幣進入其發展的新階段

經過多年被解僱為投機技術遊戲，比特幣現在正在被機構參與者和財富管理人員重新評估

Several prominent investors are suggesting that Bitcoin, now valued around $2 trillion, may be entering a new phase in its evolution, one that could see its total market capitalization rival gold's $22 trillion dominance.

幾位著名的投資者暗示，現在價值約2萬億美元的比特幣可能正在進入其發展階段，這可能會看到其總市值競爭對手的總資本化競爭對手的22萬億美元的統治地位。

After years of being dismissed as a speculative tech play, Bitcoin is now being re-evaluated by institutional players and wealth managers like Paul Tudor Jones, who has bought the coin personally for his portfolio. They are considering it less as a payment tool or a venture capital asset and more as a form of digital wealth preservation. That shift in perception could drastically reshape how the market values it over the

經過多年被解僱為投機性技術遊戲，比特幣現在被像Paul Tudor Jones這樣的機構參與者和財富管理人員重新評估，Paul Tudor Jones是為自己的投資組合親自購買了硬幣的。他們將其視為付款工具或風險資本資產，而將其作為數字財富保存形式的形式。這種感知的轉變可以大大重塑市場如何重視它

Among the investors driving this narrative is Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, who has become a vocal proponent of Bitcoin's potential to rise further. In a recent interview, he suggested that if the cryptocurrency continues to be seen through the lens of traditional technology assets, its market ceiling likely falls somewhere between $1 trillion and $3 trillion.

在推動這種敘述的投資者中，有Skybridge Capital的創始人Anthony Scaramucci已成為比特幣進一步崛起潛力的聲音支持者。在最近的一次採訪中，他建議，如果加密貨幣通過傳統技術資產的角度繼續觀察，其市場上限可能會在1萬億美元至3萬億美元之間。

This would put Bitcoin in the same league as large-cap tech giants like Apple or Microsoft, which are commonly valued in the $1 trillion to $3 trillion range. However, Scaramucci believes that if it's instead treated as a modern store of value, then the comparison changes dramatically.

這將使比特幣與蘋果或微軟等大型技術巨頭相同，這些巨頭通常以1萬億美元至3萬億美元的價格價值。但是，Scaramucci認為，如果將其視為現代價值存儲，那麼比較會發生巨大變化。

In that case, he argues, Bitcoin's valuation should eventually track gold's, implying a 10x jump from today's levels. That would mean a price tag of nearly $1 million per coin, a figure that may seem astronomical but isn't impossible considering the rapid pace of technological and financial innovation.

他認為，在這種情況下，比特幣的估值最終應該跟踪Gold的估值，這意味著從今天的水平上升了10倍。這意味著每枚硬幣的價格近100萬美元，這一數字似乎是天文學的，但是考慮到技術和金融創新的速度，並非不可能。

This view, once considered outlandish, is increasingly mentioned by other institutional investors who have revised their long-term models to account for what they see as a maturing, less speculative market for crypto.

曾經被認為是古怪的觀點，其他機構投資者越來越多地提到了他們的長期模型，以說明他們認為是加密貨幣的成熟，推測性較低的市場。

If that evolution continues, two indicators will become increasingly important: user adoption and price stability. A rise in long-term holders and a decline in volatility would support the argument that Bitcoin is no longer a playground for speculators, but a tool for wealth preservation.

如果該演變繼續進行，則兩個指標將變得越來越重要：用戶採用和價格穩定性。長期持有人的上升和波動率的下降將支持以下論點：比特幣不再是投機者的遊樂場，而是保存財富的工具。

At present, estimates suggest that around 200 million active wallets exist globally, with roughly 100 million individual holders. To reach the kind of scale that would support a $20 trillion market cap, those numbers may need to grow nearly tenfold — putting Bitcoin in the hands of about one out of every eight people on Earth.

目前，估計表明，全球約有2億個活動錢包，大約有1億個單個持有人。為了達到支撐20萬億美元市值的規模，這些數字可能需要增長近十倍，將比特幣掌握在地球上每八個人中的大約一個。

For now, that goal remains distant. But with each new round of adoption, the digital gold thesis edges closer to reality. And if the shift in mindset sticks, Bitcoin may ultimately find itself less compared to high-growth tech and more aligned with one of humanity's oldest measures of wealth.

就目前而言，這個目標仍然很遠。但是，隨著每一輪採用的新一輪，數字黃金論文都更接近現實。而且，如果思維定勢的轉變，比特幣最終可能會發現自己與高增長技術相比，並且與人類最古老的財富度量之一相吻合。