比特币[BTC]短期持有人继续意识到损失，因为他们的SOPR下降到1以下

在过去的一周中，比特币[BTC]在平行渠道内交易，在没有明确方向的情况下巩固了82,000至86,000美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating in a parallel channel over the past week, with limited progress observed.

在过去一周中，比特币（BTC）一直在平行通道中巩固，并且观察到有限的进度。

As a result, investors who bought Bitcoin at these levels are now recording significant losses, which is also being reflected in crypto derivatives.

结果，在这些水平上购买比特币的投资者现在正在记录巨大的损失，这也反映在加密衍生品中。

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Realized Losses have been detected to be currently dominating the market.

根据隐式量，比特币的实现损失已被发现目前在市场上占主导地位。

Indeed, Bitcoin’s Profit/Loss Ratio (7DMA) has dropped below its critical level of 1. Recent data from CryptoQuant showed that the indicator fell on July 17.

确实，比特币的利润/损失率（7DMA）降至其1的临界水平以下。加密量的最新数据表明，该指标于7月17日下降。

The indicator measures the balance between 7-day rolling realized gains and losses from coins moving out of exchanges. Its recent drop may indicate that the majority of investors are currently realizing losses.

该指标衡量了7天滚动实现的收益和从交换中移出的硬币损失之间的平衡。它最近的下降可能表明大多数投资者目前正在意识到损失。

These losses are largely short-term holders who are now selling at a loss. This is evident from the recent drop in Short-term Holder SOPR.

这些损失主要是短期持有人，他们现在正在亏损。从最近的短期持有人SOPR的下降中可以明显看出这一点。

The indicator dropped below the 1.0 level to 0.9 at the time of writing. Its decline suggests that short-term holders, who typically hold coins for less than 150 days, are selling their coins at an average price lower than their purchase price.

在编写时，指示器降至1.0级别至0.9。它的下降表明，通常持有硬币不到150天的短期持有人以平均价格出售硬币，低于其购买价格。

Short-term holders are also facing unrealized losses, as Bitbo data showed that their Realized Price stands at $92,174—far above current spot prices, which are trading at the $84,000 level at the time of writing.

短期持有人还面临未实现的损失，因为Bitbo数据显示，他们所实现的价格为92,174美元，高于当前现货价格，在写作时的交易价格为84,000美元。

However, it is important to note that this does not necessarily signal a full-blown capitulation phase, but rather a phase of doubt or potential accumulation.

但是，重要的是要注意，这不一定标志着一个成熟的投降阶段，而是疑问或潜在积累的阶段。

Whenever the Profit/Loss Ratio reached the +4 STDV deviation from the 365DMA, a local market top was consistently formed, followed by a short-term correction during the bull phase.

每当利润/损失率达到+4 STDV与365DMA的偏差时，一贯形成当地市场顶部，然后在公牛阶段进行短期校正。

With a high level of uncertainty still prevailing in the crypto markets, there is a better chance that a capitulation phase may unfold, potentially driving realized losses even higher and steeper.

由于加密货币市场仍然普遍存在高度的不确定性，因此，投降阶段可能会展开，有可能驱动实现的损失更高，更陡峭。

Although unrealized losses are currently being realized, investors have not yet begun to capitulate. If anything, investors are still optimistic and expect Bitcoin prices to move higher in the near term.

尽管目前正在实现未实现的损失，但投资者尚未开始屈服。如果有的话，投资者仍然乐观，预计比特币价格将在短期内提高。

This is supported by the recent drop in Bitcoin’s Fund Flow Ratio, which measures the net flow of Bitcoin into and out of exchanges, from 0.13 to 0.06 over four days.

这是由比特币基金流量比最近下降的，该比特币流量比在四天内从0.13降低到0.13，从而测量了比特币的净流量。

A lower ratio indicates fewer exchange deposits, which could be seen as a sign of retail investors holding onto their coins.

较低的比率表明，交换存款较少，这可以看作是散户投资者坚持其硬币的标志。

This optimism is also reflected in the behavior of Bitcoin whales, who are known to move large amounts of Bitcoin.

这种乐观也反映在比特币鲸的行为上，他们众所周知，他们会移动大量比特币。

According to CryptoQuant, the exchange whale ratio, which measures the balance of large trades above 50 BTC on exchanges, dropped from 0.51 to 0.37. A lower ratio implies that whales are staying put or, in another possibility, they could be accumulating more coins.

根据加密量的说法，交换鲸的比率衡量了交易所在50 BTC以上的大型交易的余额，从0.51下降到0.37。较低的比例意味着鲸鱼一直保持原状，或者在另一种可能性中，它们可能会积累更多的硬币。

In conclusion, despite the rising unrealized losses, investors have yet to capitulate, and they remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s price outlook.

总而言之，尽管未实现的损失有所增加，但投资者尚未屈服，并且对比特币的价格前景保持乐观。

If this bullish sentiment can be sustained, we could see Bitcoin making a move to reclaim the $86,078 resistance, which is the upper boundary of the consolidation channel.

如果可以维持这种看涨的情绪，我们可以看到比特币采取行动重新获得$ 86,078的电阻，这是合并通道的上限。

However, if short-term holders start to sell in a panic to avoid more losses, we could see Bitcoin retracing to the lower boundary of the channel, which is currently at the $82,800 level.

但是，如果短期持有人开始恐慌以避免更多的损失，我们可以看到比特币回溯到频道的下边界，该频道目前为82,800美元。