比特幣[BTC]短期持有人繼續意識到損失，因為他們的SOPR下降到1以下

在過去的一周中，比特幣[BTC]在平行渠道內交易，在沒有明確方向的情況下鞏固了82,000至86,000美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating in a parallel channel over the past week, with limited progress observed.

在過去一周中，比特幣（BTC）一直在平行通道中鞏固，並且觀察到有限的進度。

As a result, investors who bought Bitcoin at these levels are now recording significant losses, which is also being reflected in crypto derivatives.

結果，在這些水平上購買比特幣的投資者現在正在記錄巨大的損失，這也反映在加密衍生品中。

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Realized Losses have been detected to be currently dominating the market.

根據隱式量，比特幣的實現損失已被發現目前在市場上占主導地位。

Indeed, Bitcoin’s Profit/Loss Ratio (7DMA) has dropped below its critical level of 1. Recent data from CryptoQuant showed that the indicator fell on July 17.

確實，比特幣的利潤/損失率（7DMA）降至其1的臨界水平以下。加密量的最新數據表明，該指標於7月17日下降。

The indicator measures the balance between 7-day rolling realized gains and losses from coins moving out of exchanges. Its recent drop may indicate that the majority of investors are currently realizing losses.

該指標衡量了7天滾動實現的收益和從交換中移出的硬幣損失之間的平衡。它最近的下降可能表明大多數投資者目前正在意識到損失。

These losses are largely short-term holders who are now selling at a loss. This is evident from the recent drop in Short-term Holder SOPR.

這些損失主要是短期持有人，他們現在正在虧損。從最近的短期持有人SOPR的下降中可以明顯看出這一點。

The indicator dropped below the 1.0 level to 0.9 at the time of writing. Its decline suggests that short-term holders, who typically hold coins for less than 150 days, are selling their coins at an average price lower than their purchase price.

在編寫時，指示器降至1.0級別至0.9。它的下降表明，通常持有硬幣不到150天的短期持有人以平均價格出售硬幣，低於其購買價格。

Short-term holders are also facing unrealized losses, as Bitbo data showed that their Realized Price stands at $92,174—far above current spot prices, which are trading at the $84,000 level at the time of writing.

短期持有人還面臨未實現的損失，因為Bitbo數據顯示，他們所實現的價格為92,174美元，高於當前現貨價格，在寫作時的交易價格為84,000美元。

However, it is important to note that this does not necessarily signal a full-blown capitulation phase, but rather a phase of doubt or potential accumulation.

但是，重要的是要注意，這不一定標誌著一個成熟的投降階段，而是疑問或潛在積累的階段。

Whenever the Profit/Loss Ratio reached the +4 STDV deviation from the 365DMA, a local market top was consistently formed, followed by a short-term correction during the bull phase.

每當利潤/損失率達到+4 STDV與365DMA的偏差時，一貫形成當地市場頂部，然後在公牛階段進行短期校正。

With a high level of uncertainty still prevailing in the crypto markets, there is a better chance that a capitulation phase may unfold, potentially driving realized losses even higher and steeper.

由於加密貨幣市場仍然普遍存在高度的不確定性，因此，投降階段可能會展開，有可能驅動實現的損失更高，更陡峭。

Although unrealized losses are currently being realized, investors have not yet begun to capitulate. If anything, investors are still optimistic and expect Bitcoin prices to move higher in the near term.

儘管目前正在實現未實現的損失，但投資者尚未開始屈服。如果有的話，投資者仍然樂觀，預計比特幣價格將在短期內提高。

This is supported by the recent drop in Bitcoin’s Fund Flow Ratio, which measures the net flow of Bitcoin into and out of exchanges, from 0.13 to 0.06 over four days.

這是由比特幣基金流量比最近下降的，該比特幣流量比在四天內從0.13降低到0.13，從而測量了比特幣的淨流量。

A lower ratio indicates fewer exchange deposits, which could be seen as a sign of retail investors holding onto their coins.

較低的比率表明，交換存款較少，這可以看作是散戶投資者堅持其硬幣的標誌。

This optimism is also reflected in the behavior of Bitcoin whales, who are known to move large amounts of Bitcoin.

這種樂觀也反映在比特幣鯨的行為上，他們眾所周知，他們會移動大量比特幣。

According to CryptoQuant, the exchange whale ratio, which measures the balance of large trades above 50 BTC on exchanges, dropped from 0.51 to 0.37. A lower ratio implies that whales are staying put or, in another possibility, they could be accumulating more coins.

根據加密量的說法，交換鯨的比率衡量了交易所在50 BTC以上的大型交易的餘額，從0.51下降到0.37。較低的比例意味著鯨魚一直保持原狀，或者在另一種可能性中，它們可能會積累更多的硬幣。

In conclusion, despite the rising unrealized losses, investors have yet to capitulate, and they remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s price outlook.

總而言之，儘管未實現的損失有所增加，但投資者尚未屈服，並且對比特幣的價格前景保持樂觀。

If this bullish sentiment can be sustained, we could see Bitcoin making a move to reclaim the $86,078 resistance, which is the upper boundary of the consolidation channel.

如果可以維持這種看漲的情緒，我們可以看到比特幣採取行動重新獲得$ 86,078的電阻，這是合併通道的上限。

However, if short-term holders start to sell in a panic to avoid more losses, we could see Bitcoin retracing to the lower boundary of the channel, which is currently at the $82,800 level.

但是，如果短期持有人開始恐慌以避免更多的損失，我們可以看到比特幣回溯到頻道的下邊界，該頻道目前為82,800美元。