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在美国国内生产总值(GDP)数据显示,比特币(BTC)的价格在4月30日下跌低于93,000美元。
The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% in Q1, according to the "Preliminary" reading from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The reading came in lower than the +0.3% that economists had anticipated, signaling a slowdown in the world's largest economy.
根据经济分析局(BEA)的“初步”阅读,美国国内生产总值(GDP)在第1季度收缩了0.3%。阅读量低于经济学家预期的 +0.3%,这表明世界上最大的经济体的放缓。
The GDP Price Index (PCE) also known as inflation, came in at 3.7%, the highest since August 2023. Economists were expecting a reading of 2.3%, a slight increase from Q4 2024’s level of 2.2%.
GDP价格指数(PCE)也称为通货膨胀,为3.7%,是2023年8月以来最高的。经济学家预计读数为2.3%,比第4季度2024年第四季度的2.2%略有增加。
After the bleak GDP report, Polymarket odds of a recession in 2025 rose to 67%. Moreover, the University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer confidence dropped to 50 in April, reaching its lowest point since May 2020.
在荒凉的GDP报告后,2025年经济衰退的多个赔率上升到67%。此外,密歇根大学的消费者信心量表在4月下降到50,达到了2020年5月以来的最低点。
The report also showed that PCE inflation, a preferred measure used by the Federal Reserve, came in at 2.3% in March. Economists had been expecting a reading of 2.2%, and it follows a reading of 2.5% in February.
该报告还表明,美联储使用的首选措施PCE通货膨胀在3月份为2.3%。经济学家一直期望阅读2.2%,并且在2月份的阅读量为2.5%。
Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, dropped to 2.6% in March. Economists had anticipated this reading. However, February’s Core PCE was revised from 2.8% to 3.0%.
不包括波动性食品和能源价格的核心PCE在3月下降到2.6%。经济学家预料到了这篇阅读。但是,2月的核心PCE从2.8%修订至3.0%。
Is short-term bearish, long-term bullish for Bitcoin?
短期看跌,长期看涨比特币吗?
During the 2020 COVID-19-induced market crash, BTC initially followed traditional markets before rallying over 300% by year-end as the global M2 money supply increased, reflecting its appeal during periods of monetary expansion.
在2020年Covid-19引起的市场崩溃期间,BTC最初跟随传统市场,随着全球M2货币供应的增加,年终将超过300%集结,这反映了其在货币扩张期间的吸引力。
However, stagflation, highlighted by the -0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 2025 and a 3.7% GDP Price Index, poses short-term risks for BTC. High inflation usually deters retail crypto investment, as seen in 2022 when BTC fell 60% amid Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
然而,陷阱由Q1 2025的-0.3%GDP收缩和3.7%GDP价格指数强调,对BTC构成了短期风险。高通货膨胀通常会阻止零售加密投资,如2022年,当时BTC在美联储的利率上升时下跌60%。
March 2025 PCE inflation data suggests cooling price pressures, which could reduce urgency in Fed rate hikes and support Bitcoin. But February’s upward revisions (headline PCE from 2.5% to 2.7%, Core PCE to 3.0%) keep the outlook mixed.
2025年3月,PCE通货膨胀数据表明,冷却价格压力可能会减少美联储加息和支持比特币的紧迫性。但是2月的上升修订(头条新闻从2.5%到2.7%,核心PCE至3.0%)使外观混合在一起。
Bitcoin faces $300 million in spot selling pressure
比特币面临3亿美元的现货销售压力
Bitcoin’s spot volume delta dipped over $300 million over the past three days on April 26-29, signaling potential sell-off pressure for BTC around the $95,000 level.
比特币的现货数量达美(Delta)在4月26日至29日的过去三天中下降了超过3亿美元,这标志着BTC的潜在抛售压力约为95,000美元。
According to Glassnode's latest data, the 7-day moving average of BTC spot volume delta recorded negative flows over consecutive days. The negative inflows started to become more apparent.
根据GlassNode的最新数据,BTC斑点数量增量的7天移动平均线在连续几天内记录了负流量。负面流入变得更加明显。
The crypto analytics firm noted that the lower time frame analysis shows a steeper decline in 1-day volume delta, which measures the differential between buy and sell volume. From April 25 to 26, the 1-day volume delta dropped from $61.5 million in positive territory to $15.3 million in the red.
这家加密分析公司指出,较低的时间范围分析显示,为期1天的数量增长了1天,这衡量了买卖量之间的差异。从4月25日到26日,为期1天的数量达美航空从积极领土的6150万美元下降到红色的1530万美元。
The 3-day volume delta also shifted from $69.6 million on April 24 to $36.7 million on April 25, before sliding further into negative territory.
为期3天的数量达美航空也从4月24日的6,960万美元转移到4月25日的3670万美元,然后进一步滑入负地区。
Bitcoin sees $300 million in spot selling pressure
比特币看到3亿美元的现货销售压力
Bitcoin’s spot volume delta dipped over $300 million over the past three days, signaling potential sell-off pressure for BTC around the $95,000 level.
在过去的三天中,比特币的现货数量达美(Delta)下跌了3亿美元,这表明了BTC的潜在抛售压力约为95,000美元。
According to Glassnode's latest data, the 7-day moving average of BTC spot volume delta recorded negative flows over consecutive days. The negative inflows started to become more apparent.
根据GlassNode的最新数据,BTC斑点数量增量的7天移动平均线在连续几天内记录了负流量。负面流入变得更加明显。
The crypto analytics firm noted that the lower time frame analysis shows a steeper decline in 1-day volume delta, which measures the differential between buy and sell volume. From April 25 to 26, the 1-day volume delta dropped from $61.5 million in positive territory to $15.3 million in the red.
这家加密分析公司指出,较低的时间范围分析显示,为期1天的数量增长了1天,这衡量了买卖量之间的差异。从4月25日到26日,为期1天的数量达美航空从积极领土的6150万美元下降到红色的1530万美元。
The 3-day volume delta also shifted from $69.6 million on April 24 to $36.7 million on April 25, before sliding further into negative territory.
为期3天的数量达美航空也从4月24日的6,960万美元转移到4月25日的3670万美元,然后进一步滑入负地区。
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