到2030年，比特币（BTC）可能达到每枚硬币150万美元，方舟投资项目

投资者兼首席执行官凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）的方舟投资公司项目，比特币到2030

Investor and CEO Cathie Wood's ARK Invest firm projects that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could reach $1.5 million per coin by 2030, according to its newly released Big Ideas 2025 report.

根据其最新发布的Big Ideas 2025报告，投资者兼首席执行官Cathie Wood的ARK Invest公司项目，比特币（Crypto：BTC）到2030年的每枚硬币可能达到150万美元。

The forecast, detailed this week, highlights institutional adoption, Bitcoin's role as “digital gold,” and emerging market demand as the key drivers behind the potential surge.

本周详细介绍的预测强调了机构采用，比特币作为“数字黄金”的作用以及新兴市场需求，这是潜在激增的关键动力。

Why It Matters: Bitcoin is currently trading near $95,000, having reached a record high of around $108,000 in December. If realized, ARK's prediction would represent a more than 1,400 percent increase from today's levels.

它为什么重要：比特币目前的交易价格接近95,000美元，在12月达到了108,000美元左右的创纪录。如果意识到，方舟的预测将比当今的水平增加1,400％以上。

The release comes as President Donald Trump, newly returned to the White House, has pledged to boost cryptocurrency adoption and proposed creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the United States.

新闻发布会是随着唐纳德·特朗普总统（Donald Trump）的新返回白宫的保证，他承诺提高加密货币的采用，并提议为美国创建战略性比特币储备。

What To Know: ARK Invest's primary bull case places Bitcoin at $1.5 million by the end of the decade. Wood's firm also laid out alternative scenarios: a base case of $710,000 and a bear case of $300,000, according to CCN.

要知道的是：前十年末，ARK Invest的主要公牛案将比特币定为150万美元。伍德公司还提出了其他方案：据CCN称，基本案例为710,000美元，熊案为30万美元。

These projections were modeled based on Bitcoin's penetration rates into various total addressable markets (TAMs), including institutional portfolios, digital gold markets and use as a safe haven asset in emerging economies.

这些预测是根据比特币中的渗透率（TAM）的渗透率（包括机构投资组合，数字黄金市场）建模的，并用作新兴经济体的避风港资产。

In its most optimistic supplementary modeling, ARK suggested Bitcoin could rise even higher—up to $2.4 million—under more aggressive assumptions about adoption rates, according to Cointelegraph. However, this $2.4 million figure was not the central forecast presented in the Big Ideas 2025 report.

根据Cointelegraph的数据，方舟建议比特币在其最乐观的补充建模中可能会提高比比特币的提高（至240万美元）对采用率的更为积极的假设。但是，这个240万美元的数字并不是《大想法2025年报告》中提出的中心预测。

"Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case," said ARK research analyst David Puell, explaining that a 6.5 percent penetration rate into the $200 trillion global market for financial assets could propel Bitcoin's price dramatically.

方舟研究分析师戴维·普尔（David Puell）说：“机构投资对我们的公牛案做出了最大的贡献。”他解释说，在全球200万亿美元的金融资产市场上，渗透率为6.5％，可以极大地推动比特币的价格。

Bitcoin's growing appeal as "digital gold" was also emphasized, with ARK estimating Bitcoin could capture up to 60 percent of gold's $18 trillion market cap under favorable conditions. Additionally, Bitcoin's role in protecting wealth in emerging markets suffering from inflation could be a major driver of demand, contributing substantially to future valuation growth.

由于“数字黄金”也被强调，比特币的吸引力越来越大，方舟估计比特币在有利条件下最多可以捕获Gold 18万亿美元市值的60％。此外，比特币在保护通货膨胀的新兴市场中的作用可能是需求的主要驱动力，这对未来的估值增长做出了重大贡献。

Strike CEO Jack Mallers also weighed in on Bitcoin's prospects, suggesting that Bitcoin could climb to between $250,000 and $1 million by 2030, citing rising dysfunction in traditional financial systems as a tailwind, CCN reported.

CCN报道，Strike CEO Jack Mallers还对比特币的前景进行了压力，这表明到2030年，比特币可能会攀升至25万至100万美元之间，原因是传统金融系统的功能障碍升高。

Newsweek reached out to ARK for comment via email.

Newsweek通过电子邮件与ARK联系以进行评论。

What People Are Saying: Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek, "With bitcoin, no matter what prediction you read, the answer for where the price is going should always be 'Nobody knows.' Bitcoin has had a mixed track record over the last five years. Sometimes it follows market trends, rising and falling as the S&P does. Other times, like recently, some investors look at it as a safe haven like gold from a chaotic currency situation."

人们在说什么：田纳西大学马丁大学的金融扫盲教练亚历克斯·贝德（Alex Beane）告诉《新闻周刊》：“无论您阅读什么预测，价格的答案都应该始终是“没人知道”。在过去的五年中，比特币的往绩都混在一起。

Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek, "She has current investments within the crypto-currency space so it is very difficult to take these predictions seriously, especially when ARK Invest has exposure for on and off chain Bitcoin holdings.

9i Capital Group的首席执行官，9innings Podcast的主持人凯文·汤普森（Kevin Thompson）告诉《新闻周刊》：“她目前在加密货币领域的投资中进行了投资，因此很难认真对待这些预测，尤其是当ARK Invests可以接触开关链币比特币持有量。

"Investors have soured on Cathie Woods ever since she has failed to replicate the magnificent returns she enjoyed during the pandemic rally. She has experienced significant outflows given her underperformance of the S&P 500 over recent years. To be honest, I often see many pundits bashing her as sort of envious of what she has become in a male dominated industry."

“自从凯西·伍兹（Cathie Woods）上没有复制她在大流行集会期间享受的巨大回报以来，投资者就一直在造成巨大的回报。鉴于她近年来她的表现不佳，她经历了大量的流出。老实说，老实说，老实说，我经常看到许多专家们震惊了她在男性主导的行业中却令人羡慕。”

Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek, "You know what's fascinating about Bitcoin predictions? They're essentially financial astrology wrapped in technical jargon. Cathie Wood's $1.5 million forecast is fueled by institutional FOMO, not fundamentals. Why are smart investors still chasing these moonshot predictions? Because nobody gets famous for saying 'expect reasonable 7 to 9 percent returns.'"

财务专家，Michaelryanmoney.com的创始人迈克尔·瑞安（Michael Ryan）告诉《新闻周刊》：“您知道对比特币预测的令人着迷的是什么？它们本质上是用技术术语包裹的财务占星术。凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）的150万美元预测推动了制度性的福罗（Fomo），不是基本上的智能投资人，为什么不符合这些著名的人。

What's Next: Bitcoin's potential climb toward $1.5 million—or beyond—will depend on sustained institutional momentum, geopolitical and economic trends and regulatory developments both in the U.S. and globally.

接下来是：比特币的潜在攀升至150万美元（或超越）将取决于美国和全球范围内的持续机构势头，地缘政治和经济趋势以及监管发展。

"For investors, this prediction isn't a roadmap but more like a Rorschach test. The true believers will see validation, the skeptics will see delusion, and the market will do whatever it wants regardless," Ryan said.

瑞安说：“对于投资者而言，这一预测不是路线图，而是更像是Rorschach的测试。真正的信徒将看到验证，怀疑论者会看到妄想，而市场将尽其所能。”

Trump's proposal for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, outlined after his return to the White House, has energized crypto advocates who see government support as a potential catalyst for faster mainstream adoption.

特朗普返回白宫后概述的战略比特币储备的提议激发了加密宣言，他们将政府支持视为更快的主流采用的潜在催化剂。

While ARK's models provide a roadmap for Bitcoin's potential, the firm acknowledged that risks

尽管方舟的模型为比特币的潜力提供了路线图，但该公司承认风险有风险