比特币（BTC）对美中贸易协议的价格反应可能揭示其安全状态

比特币对美国与中国之间的贸易协议的潜在价格反应可以深入了解比特币在当前市场中是否被用作避风港资产。由Cointelegraph

Bitcoin (BTC) could react brightly to any potential price moves in the wake of a trade deal between the United States and China, which could give clues as to whether the crypto is being used as a safe-haven asset.

在美国与中国之间达成贸易协议之后，比特币（BTC）可以对任何潜在价格转移做出明智的反应，这可以为是否将加密货币用作避风港资产提供线索。

Bitcoin price chart 7D. Source: TradingView

比特币价格图7D。资料来源：TradingView

Crypto trader "Daan Crypto" noted on May 11 how Bitcoin has outperformed stocks and held up “incredibly strong” during a sharp sell-off on stock markets in April, following Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on “Liberation Day.”

加密交易员“ Daan Crypto”在5月11日指出，在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布“解放日”宣布关税之后，在4月在股票市场上抢购了股票市场，比特币在4月的股票市场上表现出了“非常强大”。

Following its plunge to $75,000 on April 7, Bitcoin recovered sharply to trade 27% higher at around $95,000 by the time of writing, while indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq went down in April.

在4月7日下跌至75,000美元之后，比特币在写作时急剧恢复到27％，左右较高27％，而撰写时间约为95,000美元，而诸如标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克等索引在4月下降了。

At the time, people were speculating if Bitcoin’s relative strength came from the narrative that countries were using Bitcoin to bypass tariffs, but the analyst said the opposite should theoretically happen if the trade deal is confirmed.

当时，人们猜测比特币的相对力量是否来自国家使用比特币绕过关税的叙述，但分析师表示，如果确认贸易协议，理论上相反的情况应发生。

Bitcoin performance since Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement. Source: Daan Crypto

自特朗普“解放日”关税宣布以来，比特币表现。资料来源：Daan Crypto

On May 11, the White House announced that talks between the U.S. and China regarding a trade deal have made “substantial progress.” However, no official agreement had been announced yet.

5月11日，白宫宣布，美国和中国就贸易协议的谈判取得了“重大进展”。但是，尚未宣布官方协议。

“We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive and we are going to be making an announcement tomorrow,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

美国财政部长斯科特·贝斯特（Scott Bessent）说：“我们明天将提供细节，但我可以告诉你，谈判是有效的，我们明天将宣布这一消息。”

However, if Bitcoin keeps doing its thing and outperforming, “it’s safe to assume that tariffs likely have little direct impact on how BTC is treated or used,” Daan concluded.

但是，如果比特币不断做事并表现出色，“可以肯定地说，关税可能对BTC的处理方式或使用方式几乎没有直接影响，” Daan总结说。

Markets await trade deal announcement

市场等待交易公告

Some analysts, however, believe that Bitcoin will likely jump if a trade deal comes through, along with potential rate cuts.

但是，一些分析师认为，如果达成贸易协议以及潜在的降低税率，比特币可能会跳跃。

“We believe that institutional investors are less apprehensive about investing in Bitcoin and crypto as US-China trade talks come to a conclusion and the likelihood of rate cuts increases,” Jeff Mei, chief operations officer at BTSE, told Cointelegraph.

BTSE首席运营官杰夫·梅（Jeff Mei）告诉CoIntelegraph：“我们认为机构投资者对投资比特币和加密货币的投资不太担心，因为美国 - 中国贸易谈判得出结论，降低税率的可能性增加。”

Meanwhile, Jupiter Zheng, researcher at HashKey Capital, added, “A US-China trade deal could signal stability in global markets, potentially driving investors to seek growth opportunities and capitalise on new trends, which could lead to increased capital flows into alternative assets like Bitcoin.”

同时，Hashkey Capital的研究人员木星Zheng补充说：“美国 - 中国贸易协议可能会在全球市场上表明稳定性，有可能驱使投资者寻求增长机会并利用新趋势，这可能会导致资本流入像比特币这样的替代资产。”

Analyst Will Clemente said on X that only a good announcement of a trade deal is likely to keep momentum going.

分析师威尔·克莱门特（Will Clemente）在X上说，只有一项良好的贸易协议公告可能会保持势头。

"Feels like you’re gonna need a real, tangible announcement on the China front to keep things moving here locally, momentum starting to stall out on BTC for the first time in a bit."

“感觉就像您将需要在中国阵线上进行真正，有形的公告，以使其在本地搬到这里，这是首次开始在BTC上停滞不前的动力。”