比特幣（BTC）對美中貿易協議的價格反應可能揭示其安全狀態

比特幣對美國與中國之間的貿易協議的潛在價格反應可以深入了解比特幣在當前市場中是否被用作避風港資產。由Cointelegraph

Bitcoin (BTC) could react brightly to any potential price moves in the wake of a trade deal between the United States and China, which could give clues as to whether the crypto is being used as a safe-haven asset.

在美國與中國之間達成貿易協議之後，比特幣（BTC）可以對任何潛在價格轉移做出明智的反應，這可以為是否將加密貨幣用作避風港資產提供線索。

Bitcoin price chart 7D. Source: TradingView

比特幣價格圖7D。資料來源：TradingView

Crypto trader "Daan Crypto" noted on May 11 how Bitcoin has outperformed stocks and held up “incredibly strong” during a sharp sell-off on stock markets in April, following Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on “Liberation Day.”

加密交易員“ Daan Crypto”在5月11日指出，在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布“解放日”宣布關稅之後，在4月在股票市場上搶購了股票市場，比特幣在4月的股票市場上表現出了“非常強大”。

Following its plunge to $75,000 on April 7, Bitcoin recovered sharply to trade 27% higher at around $95,000 by the time of writing, while indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq went down in April.

在4月7日下跌至75,000美元之後，比特幣在寫作時急劇恢復到27％，左右較高27％，而撰寫時間約為95,000美元，而諸如標準普爾500指數和納斯達克等索引在4月下降了。

At the time, people were speculating if Bitcoin’s relative strength came from the narrative that countries were using Bitcoin to bypass tariffs, but the analyst said the opposite should theoretically happen if the trade deal is confirmed.

當時，人們猜測比特幣的相對力量是否來自國家使用比特幣繞過關稅的敘述，但分析師表示，如果確認貿易協議，理論上相反的情況應發生。

Bitcoin performance since Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement. Source: Daan Crypto

自特朗普“解放日”關稅宣布以來，比特幣表現。資料來源：Daan Crypto

On May 11, the White House announced that talks between the U.S. and China regarding a trade deal have made “substantial progress.” However, no official agreement had been announced yet.

5月11日，白宮宣布，美國和中國就貿易協議的談判取得了“重大進展”。但是，尚未宣布官方協議。

“We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive and we are going to be making an announcement tomorrow,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

美國財政部長斯科特·貝斯特（Scott Bessent）說：“我們明天將提供細節，但我可以告訴你，談判是有效的，我們明天將宣布這一消息。”

However, if Bitcoin keeps doing its thing and outperforming, “it’s safe to assume that tariffs likely have little direct impact on how BTC is treated or used,” Daan concluded.

但是，如果比特幣不斷做事並表現出色，“可以肯定地說，關稅可能對BTC的處理方式或使用方式幾乎沒有直接影響，” Daan總結說。

Markets await trade deal announcement

市場等待交易公告

Some analysts, however, believe that Bitcoin will likely jump if a trade deal comes through, along with potential rate cuts.

但是，一些分析師認為，如果達成貿易協議以及潛在的降低稅率，比特幣可能會跳躍。

“We believe that institutional investors are less apprehensive about investing in Bitcoin and crypto as US-China trade talks come to a conclusion and the likelihood of rate cuts increases,” Jeff Mei, chief operations officer at BTSE, told Cointelegraph.

BTSE首席運營官傑夫·梅（Jeff Mei）告訴CoIntelegraph：“我們認為機構投資者對投資比特幣和加密貨幣的投資不太擔心，因為美國 - 中國貿易談判得出結論，降低稅率的可能性增加。”

Meanwhile, Jupiter Zheng, researcher at HashKey Capital, added, “A US-China trade deal could signal stability in global markets, potentially driving investors to seek growth opportunities and capitalise on new trends, which could lead to increased capital flows into alternative assets like Bitcoin.”

同時，Hashkey Capital的研究人員木星Zheng補充說：“美國 - 中國貿易協議可能會在全球市場上表明穩定性，有可能驅使投資者尋求增長機會並利用新趨勢，這可能會導致資本流入像比特幣這樣的替代資產。”

Analyst Will Clemente said on X that only a good announcement of a trade deal is likely to keep momentum going.

分析師威爾·克萊門特（Will Clemente）在X上說，只有一項良好的貿易協議公告可能會保持勢頭。

"Feels like you’re gonna need a real, tangible announcement on the China front to keep things moving here locally, momentum starting to stall out on BTC for the first time in a bit."

“感覺就像您將需要在中國陣線上進行真正，有形的公告，以使其在本地搬到這裡，這是首次開始在BTC上停滯不前的動力。”