比特币（BTC）市场可能正在设置波动率，然后是价格稳定性

分析公司Alphractal的一份新报告正在阐明比特币市场中潜在的经常性模式，该模式可能会暗示传入的波动性，然后是价格稳定的时期。

A new report by analytics firm Alphractal is highlighting a potential recurring pattern in the Bitcoin market that could be hinting at incoming volatility followed by a period of price stability.

分析公司Alphractal的一份新报告强调了比特币市场中潜在的经常性模式，该模式可能暗示了传入的波动性，然后是价格稳定时期。

The firm’s latest assessment reveals that Bitcoin’s 30-day cumulative Open Interest Delta has returned to levels last seen when BTC approached its all-time highs near $73,000 in 2024. While this might seem like a mere technical echo, Alphractal believes it could be part of a broader structural cycle shaping market behavior.

该公司的最新评估表明，当BTC在2024年接近其历史高点接近73,000美元时，比特币的30天累积开放兴趣达尔塔恢复了最后的水平。虽然这可能只是技术回声，但Alphractal认为它可能是更广泛的结构周期塑造市场行为的一部分。

Alphractal identified a two-stage dynamic in Bitcoin’s recent history, where high Open Interest Delta values, signaling strong bullish positioning, are followed by sharp negative corrections, creating a rhythm of expansion and contraction. This repeating structure, the firm argues, could serve as a roadmap for anticipating future market shifts.

字形鉴定了比特币最近的历史上的两阶段动态，在该历史中，高开放兴趣的增量值（信号表达强烈看涨的定位）随后是急剧的负校正，从而产生了扩张和收缩的节奏。该公司认为，这种重复结构可以作为预测未来市场变化的路线图。

However, even deeper signals may lie in the long-term data. Alphractal’s 180-day Delta trend is now approaching a crucial threshold that historically coincides with major turning points. When this longer-term Delta flips negative, it usually marks the start of bottoming formations or accumulation zones, typically after a wave of forced liquidations among overleveraged traders.

但是，甚至更深的信号可能在于长期数据。 Alphractal的180天三角洲趋势现在正接近至关重要的阈值，历史上与重大的转折点相吻合。当这个长期的三角洲掉落时，通常标志着底层形成或累积带的开始，通常是在过度杠杆交易者之间的强迫清算浪潮之后。

The firm adds that the current behavior of Open Interest is more subdued compared to prior cycles, particularly the strong surges seen between October 2023 and early 2024, and again from October 2024 into early 2025. This softer buildup, they suggest, may reflect a maturing risk profile among investors — or possibly the calm before another leg of aggressive repositioning.

该公司补充说，与先前的周期相比，目前的开放兴趣行为更加柔和，尤其是2023年10月至2024年初的强烈浪潮，从2024年10月到2025年初。他们建议，这种柔和的积累可能反映了投资者的渐进式风险，或者可能在另一个激动人心的态度之前镇定了一个平静的态度。

As the Delta curve trends lower, traders may want to brace for short-term turbulence — but also consider the possibility that the market is preparing to reset before its next major move.

随着三角洲曲线趋势的降低，交易者可能希望为短期动荡做好准备，但也考虑市场准备在下一步的重大行动之前重置的可能性。