比特幣（BTC）市場可能正在設置波動率，然後是價格穩定性

分析公司Alphractal的一份新報告正在闡明比特幣市場中潛在的經常性模式，該模式可能會暗示傳入的波動性，然後是價格穩定的時期。

A new report by analytics firm Alphractal is highlighting a potential recurring pattern in the Bitcoin market that could be hinting at incoming volatility followed by a period of price stability.

分析公司Alphractal的一份新報告強調了比特幣市場中潛在的經常性模式，該模式可能暗示了傳入的波動性，然後是價格穩定時期。

The firm’s latest assessment reveals that Bitcoin’s 30-day cumulative Open Interest Delta has returned to levels last seen when BTC approached its all-time highs near $73,000 in 2024. While this might seem like a mere technical echo, Alphractal believes it could be part of a broader structural cycle shaping market behavior.

該公司的最新評估表明，當BTC在2024年接近其歷史高點接近73,000美元時，比特幣的30天累積開放興趣達爾塔恢復了最後的水平。雖然這可能只是技術迴聲，但Alphractal認為它可能是更廣泛的結構週期塑造市場行為的一部分。

Alphractal identified a two-stage dynamic in Bitcoin’s recent history, where high Open Interest Delta values, signaling strong bullish positioning, are followed by sharp negative corrections, creating a rhythm of expansion and contraction. This repeating structure, the firm argues, could serve as a roadmap for anticipating future market shifts.

字形鑑定了比特幣最近的歷史上的兩階段動態，在該歷史中，高開放興趣的增量值（信號表達強烈看漲的定位）隨後是急劇的負校正，從而產生了擴張和收縮的節奏。該公司認為，這種重複結構可以作為預測未來市場變化的路線圖。

However, even deeper signals may lie in the long-term data. Alphractal’s 180-day Delta trend is now approaching a crucial threshold that historically coincides with major turning points. When this longer-term Delta flips negative, it usually marks the start of bottoming formations or accumulation zones, typically after a wave of forced liquidations among overleveraged traders.

但是，甚至更深的信號可能在於長期數據。 Alphractal的180天三角洲趨勢現在正接近至關重要的閾值，歷史上與重大的轉折點相吻合。當這個長期的三角洲掉落時，通常標誌著底層形成或累積帶的開始，通常是在過度槓桿交易者之間的強迫清算浪潮之後。

The firm adds that the current behavior of Open Interest is more subdued compared to prior cycles, particularly the strong surges seen between October 2023 and early 2024, and again from October 2024 into early 2025. This softer buildup, they suggest, may reflect a maturing risk profile among investors — or possibly the calm before another leg of aggressive repositioning.

該公司補充說，與先前的周期相比，目前的開放興趣行為更加柔和，尤其是2023年10月至2024年初的強烈浪潮，從2024年10月到2025年初。他們建議，這種柔和的積累可能反映了投資者的漸進式風險，或者可能在另一個激動人心的態度之前鎮定了一個平靜的態度。

As the Delta curve trends lower, traders may want to brace for short-term turbulence — but also consider the possibility that the market is preparing to reset before its next major move.

隨著三角洲曲線趨勢的降低，交易者可能希望為短期動盪做好準備，但也考慮市場準備在下一步的重大行動之前重置的可能性。