Polymarket 预测本月价格可能跌破 60,000 美元，比特币 (BTC) 跌至 63,504 美元

尽管美联储暗示 9 月份可能降息，但比特币 (BTC) 周四仍跌至 63,504 美元的低点。

Bitcoin (BTC) price dipped to a low of $63,504 on Thursday, even after the Federal Reserve hinted a potential rate cut in September is on the table.

尽管美联储暗示 9 月份可能降息，但比特币 (BTC) 价格周四仍跌至 63,504 美元的低点。

However, the world’s largest cryptocurrency began the session with a 7.4% loss, dropping to $63,504. This move comes despite a promising session on Wednesday, where BTC price rallied to a highest level this week of $68,984.

然而，全球最大的加密货币开盘下跌 7.4%，跌至 63,504 美元。尽管周三的交易充满希望，比特币价格上涨至本周最高水平 68,984 美元，但这一举措还是出现了。

A Polymarket poll with $57,000 in funding suggests that most participants believe Bitcoin will drop below $60,000 before September. Specifically, around 24% expect it to fall below $55,000, while 15% see it moving below $50,000.

Polymarket 一项涉及 57,000 美元资金的民意调查显示，大多数参与者认为 9 月之前比特币将跌破 60,000 美元。具体而言，约 24% 的人预计其价格将跌破 55,000 美元，而 15% 的人预计其价格将跌破 50,000 美元。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin began showing signs of weakness on Thursday morning, with a 7.4% loss, dropping to $63,504. This move comes despite a promising session on Wednesday.

与此同时，比特币周四上午开始显示疲软迹象，下跌 7.4%，跌至 63,504 美元。尽管周三会议充满希望，但此举还是出现了。

One possible reason for the sell-off is the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which could cause inflation and push the Fed to delay its rate cuts. Oil prices have risen, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate hitting $82 and $79, respectively.

抛售的一个可能原因是中东地缘政治风险上升，这可能导致通胀并迫使美联储推迟降息。油价上涨，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油分别达到 82 美元和 79 美元。

Another key macro catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets will be Friday’s non-farm payroll data. Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that the Fed would watch these jobs to determine whether a rate cut is necessary in September.

比特币和其他风险资产的另一个关键宏观催化剂将是周五的非农就业数据。杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，美联储将观察这些就业情况，以确定 9 月份是否有必要降息。

The other potential reason to explain Bitcoin’s weakness has to do with the U.S. election and the possibility that Donald Trump won’t emerge victorious. According to Polymarket, while Trump still maintains a 55% lead, current Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris has notably narrowed the gap.

解释比特币疲软的另一个潜在原因与美国大选以及唐纳德·特朗普不会获胜的可能性有关。根据 Polymarket 的数据，虽然特朗普仍保持 55% 的领先优势，但现任副总统兼总统候选人卡马拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 的差距已明显缩小。

Another poll by PredictIt has Harris leading with 53% followed by Trump’s 49%. More polls have shown that Harris has wiped out Trump’s lead across key battleground states in the past few days.

PredictIt 的另一项民意调查显示，哈里斯以 53% 的支持率领先，其次是特朗普，支持率 49%。更多民意调查显示，哈里斯在过去几天里已经消除了特朗普在关键战场州的领先优势。

Trump is seen as the more crypto-friendly presidential candidate. In his speech at a crypto conference, he vowed to support the industry and to ensure that the government will not sell its Bitcoin holdings. Data shows that the government holds 213,246 coins, mostly from Silk Road.

特朗普被视为对加密货币更加友好的总统候选人。在一次加密货币会议上的演讲中，他发誓要支持该行业，并确保政府不会出售其持有的比特币。数据显示，政府持有213,246枚硬币，其中大部分来自丝绸之路。

For Polymarket’s Bitcoin forecast to play out, sellers will need to push the price below the key support at $63,460, its lowest swing on Thursday. This level is significant as BTC failed to drop below it on July 18, 19, and 25.

为了让 Polymarket 的比特币预测发挥作用，卖家需要将价格推低到关键支撑位 63,460 美元以下，这是周四的最低波动水平。这一水平非常重要，因为 BTC 在 7 月 18 日、19 日和 25 日均未能跌破该水平。

It is also the neckline of the triple-top pattern formed in July and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement point. Breaking this support would signal that bears have prevailed and increase the likelihood of BTC dropping to $60,000.

它也是 7 月形成的三重顶形态的颈线和 38.2% 斐波那契回撤点。突破这一支撑位将表明空头已经占上风，并增加 BTC 跌至 60,000 美元的可能性。