Polymarket 預測本月價格可能跌破 60,000 美元，比特幣 (BTC) 跌至 63,504 美元

儘管聯準會暗示 9 月可能降息，但比特幣 (BTC) 週四仍跌至 63,504 美元的低點。

Bitcoin (BTC) price dipped to a low of $63,504 on Thursday, even after the Federal Reserve hinted a potential rate cut in September is on the table.

儘管聯準會暗示 9 月可能降息，但比特幣 (BTC) 價格週四仍跌至 63,504 美元的低點。

However, the world’s largest cryptocurrency began the session with a 7.4% loss, dropping to $63,504. This move comes despite a promising session on Wednesday, where BTC price rallied to a highest level this week of $68,984.

然而，全球最大的加密貨幣開盤下跌 7.4%，跌至 63,504 美元。儘管週三的交易充滿希望，比特幣價格上漲至本週最高水準 68,984 美元，但這一舉措還是出現了。

A Polymarket poll with $57,000 in funding suggests that most participants believe Bitcoin will drop below $60,000 before September. Specifically, around 24% expect it to fall below $55,000, while 15% see it moving below $50,000.

Polymarket 一項涉及 57,000 美元資金的民意調查顯示，大多數參與者認為 9 月之前比特幣將跌破 60,000 美元。具體而言，約 24% 的人預計其價格將跌破 55,000 美元，而 15% 的人預計其價格將跌破 50,000 美元。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin began showing signs of weakness on Thursday morning, with a 7.4% loss, dropping to $63,504. This move comes despite a promising session on Wednesday.

與此同時，比特幣週四上午開始顯示疲軟跡象，下跌 7.4%，跌至 63,504 美元。儘管週三會議充滿希望，但此舉還是出現了。

One possible reason for the sell-off is the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which could cause inflation and push the Fed to delay its rate cuts. Oil prices have risen, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate hitting $82 and $79, respectively.

拋售的一個可能原因是中東地緣政治風險上升，這可能導致通膨並迫使聯準會推遲降息。油價上漲，布蘭特原油和西德州中質原油分別達 82 美元和 79 美元。

Another key macro catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets will be Friday’s non-farm payroll data. Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that the Fed would watch these jobs to determine whether a rate cut is necessary in September.

比特幣和其他風險資產的另一個關鍵宏觀催化劑將是周五的非農業就業數據。傑羅姆鮑威爾週三表示，聯準會將觀察這些就業情況，以確定 9 月是否有必要降息。

The other potential reason to explain Bitcoin’s weakness has to do with the U.S. election and the possibility that Donald Trump won’t emerge victorious. According to Polymarket, while Trump still maintains a 55% lead, current Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris has notably narrowed the gap.

解釋比特幣疲軟的另一個潛在原因與美國大選以及唐納德·川普不會獲勝的可能性有關。根據 Polymarket 的數據，雖然川普仍保持 55% 的領先優勢，但現任副總統兼總統候選人 Kamala Harris 的差距已明顯縮小。

Another poll by PredictIt has Harris leading with 53% followed by Trump’s 49%. More polls have shown that Harris has wiped out Trump’s lead across key battleground states in the past few days.

PredictIt 的另一項民調顯示，哈里斯以 53% 的支持率領先，其次是川普，支持率 49%。更多民調顯示，哈里斯在過去幾天已經消除了川普在關鍵戰場州的領先優勢。

Trump is seen as the more crypto-friendly presidential candidate. In his speech at a crypto conference, he vowed to support the industry and to ensure that the government will not sell its Bitcoin holdings. Data shows that the government holds 213,246 coins, mostly from Silk Road.

川普被視為對加密貨幣更友善的總統候選人。在一次加密貨幣會議上的演講中，他發誓要支持該行業，並確保政府不會出售其持有的比特幣。數據顯示，政府持有213,246枚硬幣，其中大部分來自絲路。

For Polymarket’s Bitcoin forecast to play out, sellers will need to push the price below the key support at $63,460, its lowest swing on Thursday. This level is significant as BTC failed to drop below it on July 18, 19, and 25.

為了讓 Polymarket 的比特幣預測發揮作用，賣家需要將價格推低到關鍵支撐位 63,460 美元以下，這是周四的最低波動水平。這一水準非常重要，因為 BTC 在 7 月 18 日、19 日和 25 日都未能跌破該水準。

It is also the neckline of the triple-top pattern formed in July and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement point. Breaking this support would signal that bears have prevailed and increase the likelihood of BTC dropping to $60,000.

它也是 7 月形成的三重頂形態的頸線和 38.2% 斐波那契回檔點。突破這一支撐位將表明空頭已經佔上風，並增加 BTC 跌至 60,000 美元的可能性。