来自不同投资者的比特币（BTC）需求 - 包括公开上市的公司

现货比特币ETF已经超过了早期增长的黄金ETF，到2027年，预测年度流入为1000亿美元。

Publicly listed companies and nation-states are spearheading substantial capital inflows into Bitcoin (BTC) in 2024, according to crypto index fund management firm Bitwise.

根据Crypto指数基金公司的数据，公开上市的公司和民族国家将在2024年将大量资本流入到比特币（BTC）中。

According to its analysis of institutional investor activity, Bitwise anticipates that publicly listed companies alone could channel an additional $120 billion into Bitcoin by the end of 2025.

根据其对机构投资者活动的分析，Bitwise预计，仅公开上市的公司就可以在2025年底之前向比特币额外传达1,200亿美元。

Furthermore, Bitwise projects an influx of $300 billion in 2026 as government bodies, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and wealth management platforms collectively expand their Bitcoin allocations.

此外，由于政府机构，交易所交易基金（ETF）和财富管理平台，Bitwise将在2026年将涌入3000亿美元，共同扩大了其比特币分配。

In 2024, US Bitcoin ETFs realized net inflows of $36.2 billion, outpacing the early success of SPDR gold Shares (GLD), which transformed gold investing.

2024年，美国比特币ETF实现了362亿美元的净流入，超过了SPDR Gold股票（GLD）的早期成功，这改变了黄金投资。

Bitcoin ETFs reached $125 billion in assets under management (AUM) within 12 months—20 times faster than GLD—projecting Bitcoin to outperform gold significantly, with an annualized inflow of $36.2 billion.

比特币ETF在12个月内达到了1.250亿美元的资产（AUM），比GLD快20倍，比特币高度超过了黄金，年增长率为362亿美元。

In contrast, GLD, the world’s largest gold ETF, achieved $100 billion in AUM after seven years, and at its peak, generated $35 billion in annual inflows.

相比之下，全球最大的黄金ETF GLD在七年后在AUM中获得了1000亿美元，并达到顶峰，每年流入350亿美元。

However, despite this surge, Bitwise estimates that $35 billion of Bitcoin demand remained untapped due to risk-averse compliance policies at major corporations.

然而，尽管这一激增，Bitwise估计，由于大型公司的规避风险合规政策，350亿美元的比特币需求仍未开发。

Institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, managing $60 trillion in client assets, typically require a multi-year track record before investing in cryptocurrencies.

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）和高盛（Goldman Sachs）等机构管理了60万亿美元的客户资产，通常需要在投资加密货币之前拥有多年的往绩。

Moreover, these firms cannot easily adjust their capital allocations to quickly capitalize on emerging trends like Bitcoin ETFs.

此外，这些公司无法轻易调整其资本分配，以快速利用比特币ETF等新兴趋势。

Nevertheless, Bitwise anticipates that as BTC ETF legitimacy grows, so too will the ease with which these institutions can allocate capital to the asset.

然而，Bitwise预计，随着BTC ETF合法性的增长，这些机构可以将资本分配给资产的便利性。

“We believe that by 2025, at least some of these institutions will adjust their internal policies to allow for allocations to Bitcoin ETFs,” said Bitwise.

“我们相信，到2025年，至少其中一些机构将调整其内部政策，以允许对比特币ETF进行分配，” Bitwise说。

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, also noted that Bitcoin trading above $100,000 signals its potential to take over gold’s role as a store of value.

Fidelity全球宏观主任Jurrien Timmer还指出，比特币交易超过100,000美元的交易信号具有其潜力，可以接管Gold作为价值存储的角色。

His analysis also pointed to the recent convergence of Bitcoin and gold’s Sharpe ratios, suggesting that both assets are becoming increasingly comparable in terms of risk-adjusted returns.

他的分析还指出，比特币和黄金的Sharpe比率最近的融合，这表明这两个资产在风险调整后的收益方面都变得越来越可比。

“The Sharpe ratio on gold used to be about 0.5, while the Sharpe ratio on Bitcoin was closer to 1.5, But over the last six months, both assets have converged to a Sharpe ratio of about 1,” said Timmer.

Timmer说：“黄金的夏普比率曾经约0.5，而比特币的夏普比率接近1.5，但在过去的六个月中，这两个资产都融合到夏普比率约为1的比率。”

Public and private companies, in addition to sovereign nations, are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

除主权国家外，公共和私人公司越来越多地将比特币视为储备资产。

As of August 1, companies listed on public exchanges, such as Tesla and MicroStrategy, had bought and held around 1,146,128 BTC, valued at $125 billion at current prices.

截至8月1日，在公共交易所上市的公司，例如特斯拉和微观，已经购买并持有约1,146,128 BTC，价值1250亿美元，目前的价格为1,250亿美元。

This represents 5.8% of the total Bitcoin supply and is a significant portion of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply.

这占比特币供应总额的5.8％，是加密货币循环供应的重要部分。

Sovereign nations collectively held 529,705 BTC, valued at $57.8 billion, with the United States (207,189 BTC), China (194,000 BTC), and the United Kingdom (61,000 BTC) leading the way.

主权国家共同拥有529,705 BTC，价值578亿美元，美国（207,189 BTC），中国（194,000 BTC）和英国（61,000 BTC）带领这条路。

Together, these companies and nations have absorbed a considerable amount of Bitcoin, which could have implications for the cryptocurrency’s price movements in the coming years.

这些公司和国家共同吸收了大量的比特币，这可能会对未来几年的加密货币价格变动产生影响。

According to Juan Leon, Senior investment strategist at Bitwise, and colleagues Guillaume Girard, UXTO research lead, and Will Owens, research analyst, there are a few bear, base, and bull case scenarios to consider.

根据BITWISE的高级投资策略师Juan Leon以及UXTO研究负责人Guillaume Girard的高级投资策略师，研究分析师Will Owens，有一些熊，基础和公牛案例。

In the bear case, nation-states reallocated just 1% of their gold reserves to Bitcoin, driving $32.3 billion in inflows (323,000 BTC or 1.54% of supply).

在熊案中，民族国家仅将其黄金储量的1％重新分配给比特币，驱动了323亿美元的流入（323,000 BTC或供应量的1.54％）。

Multiple US states created BTC reserves at 10%, adding $6.5 billion, while wealth management platforms allocated 0.1% of assets ($60 billion). Public companies contributed another $58.9 billion, bringing the total to over $150 billion.

美国多个州创建的BTC储量为10％，增加了65亿美元，而财富管理平台分配了0.1％的资产（600亿美元）。上市公司贡献了589亿美元，总计超过1500亿美元。

The base case envisions a 5% nation-state allocation, generating $161.7 billion (1,617,000 BTC or 7.7% of supply). US states raised their adoption to 30% ($19.6 billion), wealth platforms allocated 0.5% ($300 billion), and public companies doubled their holdings to $117.8 billion.

基本案例设想了5％的民族国家分配，产生了1617亿美元（1,617,000 BTC或供应量的7.7％）。美国各州将其收养提高到30％（196亿美元），分配了0.5％（3000亿美元）的财富平台，上市公司将其持股翻了一番，达到1,178亿美元。

This scenario aligns with Bitwise’s forecast of $120 billion by 2025 and $300 billion by 2026, amounting to 20.32% of Bitcoin’s supply.

这种情况与Bitwise到2025年的1200亿美元和到2026年的3000亿美元相吻合，占比特币供应量的20.32％。

In the bull

在公牛里