方舟投资已大大修改了比特币的长期前景

输出：输入：到2030年，比特币的公牛案例目标目标约为240万美元。该报告根据比特币的总可寻址市场（TAM）的潜力阐明了一个全面的建模框架

Ark Invest has significantly revised its long-term price target for Bitcoin (BTC), now projecting a bull case price of approximately $2.4 million by 2030. The updated target, which was previously $1.5 million, is based on an updated analysis of Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM) potential, institutional and emerging market adoption trends, and assumptions around supply dynamics.

ARK Invest已大量修改了比特币（BTC）的长期目标价格，现在预计到2030年的牛案例价格约为240万美元。以前的更新目标（以前为150万美元）是基于对比特币的总可寻址市场（TAM）潜在的，机构和新兴市场采用供应动力学和假设的更新分析。

According to Ark’s report, which was updated on Tuesday, a 6.5% penetration of the $200 trillion global market portfolio ex-gold by 2030 will contribute the most to its bull case price target.

根据周二更新的ARK报告，到2030年，全球200万美元的全球市场投资组合中的渗透率为6.5％，将对其公牛案例价格目标产生最大的贡献。

This share is nearly double the current allocation to gold, and by 2030, around 207 institutions will hold bitcoin, an updated analysis claims, compared to the prior 170. The firm’s base and bear case price targets are $1.2 million (CAGR ~53%) and $500,000 (CAGR ~32%), respectively.

这一份额几乎是当前对黄金的分配的两倍，到2030年，大约有207个机构将拥有比特币，而更新的分析要求，而前的170个机构将持有比特币。该公司的基本和BEAR案例价格目标分别为120万美元（CAGR〜53％）和500,000美元（CAGR 〜32％）。

The updated price target represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~72% between December 31, 2024 and December 32, 2030.

更新的价格目标是2024年12月31日至2030年12月32日之间的复合年增长率（CAGR）约为72％。

Its analysis also considers several other Bitcoin use cases and demand trends, including:

它的分析还考虑了其​​他几个比特币用例和需求趋势，包括：

Emerging market demand: “In our view, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual.”suggesting that the asset’s ability to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing economies. This segment could account for 13.5% of the $2.4 million valuation, assuming a 6% TAM penetration rate of emerging market monetary bases.

新兴市场需求：“在我们看来，这种比特币用例具有最大的资本应计潜力。”这表明资产保护财富免受通货膨胀和发展中经济体贬值的能力。假设新兴市场货币基础的TAM渗透率为6％，这一细分市场可能占240万美元估值的13.5％。

Its analysis also considers several other Bitcoin use cases and demand trends, including:

它的分析还考虑了其​​他几个比特币用例和需求趋势，包括：

Emerging market demand: “In our view, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual.”suggesting that the asset’s ability to hedge inflation and currency weakness in developing economies. This segment could account for 13.5% of the $2.4 million valuation, assuming a 6% TAM penetration rate of emerging market monetary bases.

新兴市场需求：“我们认为，这种比特币用例具有最大的资本应计潜力。”这表明资产对对冲通货膨胀和发展中经济体货币疲软的能力。假设新兴市场货币基础的TAM渗透率为6％，这一细分市场可能占240万美元估值的13.5％。

Each use case’s contribution to bitcoin’s total value will depend on several factors, including the rate of integration, which Ark said it assumes will be incremental.

每个用例对比特币总价值的贡献将取决于几个因素，包括集成速率，ARK认为这将是增量的。

“We prefer this approach because it better reflects how new technologies are adopted over time. As a result, we project that the gains will be modest early on but increase at an accelerating rate in later years,” the investment firm stated.

这家投资公司说：“我们更喜欢这种方法，因为它更好地反映了如何随着时间的推移采用新技术。因此，我们预测，在以后的几年中，收益将在早期却是适度的​​，但以加速的速度增加。”

Its analysis began with the core premise that Bitcoin’s scarcity will drive its value.

它的分析始于核心前提，即比特币的稀缺性将推动其价值。

“We start with the simple proposition that scarcity drives value. In essence, as supply is limited, increasing demand will bid up prices. In the case of bitcoin, its scarcity is defined by 21 million coins and the fact that a portion of the issued supply is lost forever due to inactivity or negligence,” the firm stated.

该公司说：“我们首先要说的是，稀缺性驱动价值。本质上，由于供应的有限，需求的增加将提高价格。就比特币而言，其稀缺性是由2100万个硬币定义的，而部分供应的一部分由于不活动或过失而永远丢失了。”

In a supplemental analysis, Ark also applied these assumptions to Bitcoin’s “active” supply, a methodology that discounts long-held or lost coins.

在补充分析中，方舟还将这些假设应用于比特币的“主动”供应，这种方法可以打折长期控制或丢失的硬币。

According to its analysis, if one applies a liveliness-adjusted supply basis (which considers coins that haven’t moved in the past year and are likely lost or inactive) to its bull case assumptions, then the price target rises to $2.4 million, up from the originally stated $1.5 million.

根据它的分析，如果人们对其牛案假设应用了活泼调整的供应基础（考虑到过去一年中没有移动并且可能丢失或不活动的硬币），那么价格目标将升至240万美元，高于最初规定的150万美元。

“Most valuation models today do not reflect bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply, which we believe could provide further upside potential to our bull case price target,” Ark concluded.

Ark总结说：“当今大多数估值模型并不反映比特币的稀缺性和供应量丢失，我们认为这可以为我们的公牛案件价格目标提供进一步的上涨潜力。”