方舟投資已大大修改了比特幣的長期前景

輸出：輸入：到2030年，比特幣的公牛案例目標目標約為240萬美元。該報告根據比特幣的總可尋址市場（TAM）的潛力闡明了一個全面的建模框架

Ark Invest has significantly revised its long-term price target for Bitcoin (BTC), now projecting a bull case price of approximately $2.4 million by 2030. The updated target, which was previously $1.5 million, is based on an updated analysis of Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM) potential, institutional and emerging market adoption trends, and assumptions around supply dynamics.

ARK Invest已大量修改了比特幣（BTC）的長期目標價格，現在預計到2030年的牛案例價格約為240萬美元。以前的更新目標（以前為150萬美元）是基於對比特幣的總可尋址市場（TAM）潛在的，機構和新興市場採用供應動力學和假設的更新分析。

According to Ark’s report, which was updated on Tuesday, a 6.5% penetration of the $200 trillion global market portfolio ex-gold by 2030 will contribute the most to its bull case price target.

根據周二更新的ARK報告，到2030年，全球200萬美元的全球市場投資組合中的滲透率為6.5％，將對其公牛案例價格目標產生最大的貢獻。

This share is nearly double the current allocation to gold, and by 2030, around 207 institutions will hold bitcoin, an updated analysis claims, compared to the prior 170. The firm’s base and bear case price targets are $1.2 million (CAGR ~53%) and $500,000 (CAGR ~32%), respectively.

這一份額幾乎是當前對黃金的分配的兩倍，到2030年，大約有207個機構將擁有比特幣，而更新的分析要求，而前的170個機構將持有比特幣。該公司的基本和BEAR案例價格目標分別為120萬美元（CAGR〜53％）和500,000美元（CAGR 〜32％）。

The updated price target represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~72% between December 31, 2024 and December 32, 2030.

更新的價格目標是2024年12月31日至2030年12月32日之間的複合年增長率（CAGR）約為72％。

Its analysis also considers several other Bitcoin use cases and demand trends, including:

它的分析還考慮了其​​他幾個比特幣用例和需求趨勢，包括：

Emerging market demand: “In our view, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual.”suggesting that the asset’s ability to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing economies. This segment could account for 13.5% of the $2.4 million valuation, assuming a 6% TAM penetration rate of emerging market monetary bases.

新興市場需求：“在我們看來，這種比特幣用例具有最大的資本應計潛力。”這表明資產保護財富免受通貨膨脹和發展中經濟體貶值的能力。假設新興市場貨幣基礎的TAM滲透率為6％，這一細分市場可能佔240萬美元估值的13.5％。

Its analysis also considers several other Bitcoin use cases and demand trends, including:

它的分析還考慮了其​​他幾個比特幣用例和需求趨勢，包括：

Emerging market demand: “In our view, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual.”suggesting that the asset’s ability to hedge inflation and currency weakness in developing economies. This segment could account for 13.5% of the $2.4 million valuation, assuming a 6% TAM penetration rate of emerging market monetary bases.

新興市場需求：“我們認為，這種比特幣用例具有最大的資本應計潛力。”這表明資產對對沖通貨膨脹和發展中經濟體貨幣疲軟的能力。假設新興市場貨幣基礎的TAM滲透率為6％，這一細分市場可能佔240萬美元估值的13.5％。

Each use case’s contribution to bitcoin’s total value will depend on several factors, including the rate of integration, which Ark said it assumes will be incremental.

每個用例對比特幣總價值的貢獻將取決於幾個因素，包括集成速率，ARK認為這將是增量的。

“We prefer this approach because it better reflects how new technologies are adopted over time. As a result, we project that the gains will be modest early on but increase at an accelerating rate in later years,” the investment firm stated.

這家投資公司說：“我們更喜歡這種方法，因為它更好地反映瞭如何隨著時間的推移採用新技術。因此，我們預測，在以後的幾年中，收益將在早期卻是適度的​​，但以加速的速度增加。”

Its analysis began with the core premise that Bitcoin’s scarcity will drive its value.

它的分析始於核心前提，即比特幣的稀缺性將推動其價值。

“We start with the simple proposition that scarcity drives value. In essence, as supply is limited, increasing demand will bid up prices. In the case of bitcoin, its scarcity is defined by 21 million coins and the fact that a portion of the issued supply is lost forever due to inactivity or negligence,” the firm stated.

該公司說：“我們首先要說的是，稀缺性驅動價值。本質上，由於供應的有限，需求的增加將提高價格。就比特幣而言，其稀缺性是由2100萬個硬幣定義的，而部分供應的一部分由於不活動或過失而永遠丟失了。”

In a supplemental analysis, Ark also applied these assumptions to Bitcoin’s “active” supply, a methodology that discounts long-held or lost coins.

在補充分析中，方舟還將這些假設應用於比特幣的“主動”供應，這種方法可以打折長期控製或丟失的硬幣。

According to its analysis, if one applies a liveliness-adjusted supply basis (which considers coins that haven’t moved in the past year and are likely lost or inactive) to its bull case assumptions, then the price target rises to $2.4 million, up from the originally stated $1.5 million.

根據它的分析，如果人們對其牛案假設應用了活潑調整的供應基礎（考慮到過去一年中沒有移動並且可能丟失或不活動的硬幣），那麼價格目標將升至240萬美元，高於最初規定的150萬美元。

“Most valuation models today do not reflect bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply, which we believe could provide further upside potential to our bull case price target,” Ark concluded.

Ark總結說：“當今大多數估值模型並不反映比特幣的稀缺性和供應量丟失，我們認為這可以為我們的公牛案件價格目標提供進一步的上漲潛力。”