AltCoin斑点ETF申请等待SEC行动，市场预测指向“加密ETF的夏季”

分析人士看到，等待SEC行动的Altcoin Spot ETF文件增加。当前，超过70个加密ETF应用程序（从波纹的XRP到Solana和Dogecoin的资产）目前正在美国监管机构进行待处理。

Analysts at Bloomberg are keeping an eye on a growing number of altcoin spot ETF applications in the U.S., with over 70 such filings now pending with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

彭博社的分析师一直在关注美国越来越多的Altcoin spot ETF申请，现在有70多个此类此类申请书正在与美国证券交易委员会（SEC）（SEC）挂起。

According to a recent analysis by Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, these applications could lead to a “summer of crypto ETFs.”

根据彭博ETF分析师Eric Balchunas和James Seyffart的最新分析，这些应用可能导致“加密ETF的夏季”。

Their analysis indicates a high chance of approval for funds tracking Litecoin, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin under the current SEC administration, a stark contrast to the previous administration's complete rejection of such applications.

他们的分析表明，在当前的SEC政府下，追踪Litecoin，XRP，Solana和Dogecoin的资金很有可能获得批准，这与上一个政府完全拒绝此类应用程序形成了鲜明的对比。

The SEC is currently reviewing dozens of new ETF proposals, a task that could determine the fate of institutional investing in crypto markets for years to come.

SEC目前正在审查数十项新的ETF提案，这项任务可以决定未来几年在加密货币市场上投资的命运。

As of Thursday, Balchunas noted on X (formerly Twitter) that “72 crypto-related ETFs are now awaiting approval.”

截至周四，Balchunas在X（以前是Twitter）上指出：“ 72个与加密相关的ETF现在正在等待批准。”

These filings cover a wide range of major altcoins, including XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA, and even more exotic tokens like COTI and REQ.

这些文件涵盖了广泛的主要山寨币，包括XRP，SOL，LTC，ADA，甚至包括COTI和REQ等更奇特的令牌。

The pending applications follow last year's massive expansion of institutional access to Bitcoin and Ethereum with the approval of eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs in January and nine spot Ether ETFs by May.

待处理的申请是在去年大规模扩大了对比特币和以太坊的机构访问的大规模扩展，并在1月份获得了11个点比特币ETF和5月的9个位置ETHEF。

With the SEC facing final deadlines on batches of proposals through late 2025, the agency must issue approvals or rejections in the coming months.

由于SEC在2025年末之前对一批提案的最终期限面对最终期限，因此该机构必须在未来几个月内签发批准或拒绝。

According to predictions by Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction platform, there’s a 78–79% probability that an XRP spot ETF will be approved by December 2025.

根据加密货币预测平台Polymarket的预测，XRP Spot ETF的可能性为78-79％，将于2025年12月批准。

Similarly, Solana and Litecoin have year-end approval probabilities of about 78%, while Dogecoin’s odds are around 68%. These probabilities have remained relatively stable throughout 2025.

同样，Solana和Litecoin的年终批准概率约为78％，而Dogecoin的赔率约为68％。在2025年，这些概率一直保持相对稳定。

However, the probability of very near-term approval is lower; for instance, the odds of XRP ETF approval by July 31, 2025, are around 42%.

但是，非常近期批准的可能性较低。例如，XRP ETF批准到2025年7月31日的几率约为42％。

For context, the approval probabilities by July 2025 are lower—ranging from 24% to 42%—suggesting that the predictive market anticipates decisions later in the year. It’s worth noting that this type of market has accurately predicted previous crypto regulatory outcomes.

在上下文中，到2025年7月的批准概率较低（从24％到42％），预测市场预计今年晚些时候的决策。值得注意的是，这种类型的市场已经准确地预测了以前的加密监管结果。

The optimism surrounding altcoin ETF approval stems in part from a March ruling by the SEC dismissing its appeal against a court decision on Ripple.

SEC驳回了对Ripple的法院裁决的上诉，围绕Altcoin ETF批准的乐观情绪部分源于一项裁定。

This move, which Balchunas described as a “resounding victory” for Ripple, occurred as the SEC completed a task force on digital assets and President Trump expressed support for a U.S. Bitcoin ETF during a rally in December 2024.

巴尔丘纳斯（Balchunas）将这一举动描述为波纹的“巨大胜利”，当SEC完成了数字资产工作队，特朗普总统在2024年12月的一次集会上表示支持美国比特币ETF。

Furthermore, since January, the SEC has been de-emphasizing enforcement activity. This shift in priorities led to the administration dropping civil cases against crypto exchange Coinbase and another exchange, Kraken, signaling a more open approach to the industry.

此外，自1月以来，SEC一直在取消强调执法活动。优先事项的这一转变导致政府对Crypto Exchange Coinbase和另一种交流Kraken撤销民事案件，这表明对该行业采取了更开放的方法。

According to analysts, the previous SEC administration would have flatly refused most altcoin ETF filings. For instance, in December 2024, the SEC rejected several proposals for spot Solana ETFs.

根据分析师的说法，以前的SEC政府将断然拒绝大多数Altcoin ETF申请。例如，在2024年12月，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）拒绝了几项有关现场索拉纳ETF的建议。

On the legislative front, the SEC has moved forward with filings that it once stalled. In February, the agency acknowledged proposed 19b‑4 rule changes for Grayscale’s spot XRP and DOGE ETFs.

在立法方面，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）曾经停滞不前提交的文件。 2月，该机构承认，提议的19b -4规则更改了Grayscale的现场XRP和Doge ETF。

Acknowledgment is a formal step that invites public comment but does not guarantee approval. As Bloomberg’s James Seyffart pointed out, under the old SEC regime, such filings would likely have been dismissed.

致谢是邀请公众评论但不能保证批准的正式步骤。正如彭博社的詹姆斯·塞法特（James Seyffart）指出的那样，在旧的SEC政权下，此类文件可能会被驳回。

These developments, along with President Trump’s pro-crypto stance and comments from Yellen about sensible regulation, have created a more favorable backdrop for altcoin ETFs, analysts noted.

分析师指出，这些事态发展以及特朗普总统的亲克赖特托立场以及耶伦对明智的监管的评论，为altcoin ETF创造了更有利的背景。