XRP 今年可能會達到 4 美元，但問題在於

加密貨幣市場在 2024 年表現出色，所有流通中的硬幣和代幣的累積價值在 12 月創下了 3.9 兆美元的歷史新高。

XRP (XRP 0.99%) had an incredible year in 2024, easily outpacing the broader cryptocurrency market with a gain of 230%. The company that created XRP (Ripple) has been locked in a battle with U.S. regulators since 2020, but investors became extremely bullish after Donald Trump's election win in November, because it appears he will lead the most pro-crypto administration in history.

XRP（XRP 0.99%）在 2024 年度過了令人難以置信的一年，以 ​​230% 的漲幅輕鬆超越了更廣泛的加密貨幣市場。自2020 年以來，創建XRP（Ripple）的公司一直與美國監管機構展開鬥爭，但在唐納德·特朗普11 月贏得大選後，投資者變得極其樂觀，因為他似乎將領導歷史上最支持加密貨幣的政府。

XRP is trading at about $2.30 as of this writing, but can it ride that tailwind to a record high of $4 during 2025?

截至撰寫本文時，XRP 的交易價格約為 2.30 美元，但它能否乘勢而上，在 2025 年創下 4 美元的歷史新高？

XRP was designed for Ripple's innovative payments network

XRP 專為 Ripple 的創新支付網路而設計

Not every bank around the world uses the same payments infrastructure. Some are on the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) network to transfer funds and others aren't, so it can take days to settle transactions between banks. Ripple created a unique network called Ripple Payments, formerly RippleNet, that solves that problem.

並非世界上每家銀行都使用相同的支付基礎設施。有些銀行透過 SWIFT（全球銀行間金融電信協會）網路進行資金轉移，而有些銀行則不然，因此銀行之間的交易結算可能需要數天時間。 Ripple 創建了一個名為 Ripple Payments（以前稱為 RippleNet）的獨特網路來解決這個問題。

It works with all existing infrastructure to standardize payment protocols, so that banks can talk to each other even if one uses SWIFT and the other doesn't. That means they can use Ripple Payments to cut out intermediaries and settle transfers directly, making them almost instantaneous.

它與所有現有基礎設施合作，實現支付協議標準化，這樣，即使一個銀行使用 SWIFT 而另一個銀行不使用，銀行也可以相互通信。這意味著他們可以使用 Ripple Payments 來消除中間商並直接結算轉賬，使交易幾乎是即時的。

The XRP cryptocurrency was designed to standardize each transaction. For example, a Japanese bank can send XRP to a German bank instead of sending Japanese yen, to bypass currency exchange fees and other transaction costs. The two banks can then handle their own conversions from XRP to a fiat currency of their choice.

XRP 加密貨幣旨在標準化每筆交易。例如，日本銀行可以將 XRP 發送到德國銀行，而不是發送日元，以繞過貨幣兌換費用和其他交易成本。然後，兩家銀行可以自行處理從 XRP 到其選擇的法定貨幣的兌換。

Therefore, unlike most cryptocurrencies, XRP has a legitimate use case that could become a source of long-term value.

因此，與大多數加密貨幣不同，XRP 具有合法的用例，可以成為長期價值的來源。

Lighter regulation might benefit XRP in 2025

2025 年，寬鬆的監管可能有利於 XRP

XRP has a total supply of 100 billion tokens. There are 57 billion in circulation, and Ripple controls the other 43 billion, releasing some into the market each month to meet demand. Therefore, XRP is very different to a truly decentralized cryptocurrency like Bitcoin (BTC -0.07%), which has a fixed supply and isn't controlled by any individual or company.

XRP 的總供應量為 1000 億枚。流通中有 570 億枚，Ripple 控制著另外 430 億枚，每月釋放一些到市場以滿足需求。因此，XRP 與比特幣 (BTC -0.07%) 等真正去中心化的加密貨幣有很大不同，後者俱有固定的供應量，不受任何個人或公司控制。

As a result, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Ripple in 2020, claiming the XRP token should be classified as a financial security, like a stock or a bond. Companies that issue securities must register them and operate under a strict regulatory framework, so this legal battle had dire potential consequences for Ripple's business.

因此，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）於 2020 年起訴 Ripple，聲稱 XRP 代幣應被歸類為金融證券，如股票或債券。發行證券的公司必須註冊並在嚴格的監管框架下運營，因此這場法律戰對 Ripple 的業務產生了可怕的潛在後果。

The lawsuit was partially resolved back in August, when a judge decided that XRP might only be a security in specific circumstances, such as when new supply is issued to institutions. However, it might not be a security when it's traded on exchanges or used in transactions. Ripple was ordered to pay a fine of $125 million, but the SEC is appealing the decision, which, under normal circumstances, would tie the parties up in court for several more years.

該訴訟於 8 月部分解決，當時法官裁定 XRP 可能僅在特定情況下才是一種證券，例如向機構發行新供應時。然而，當它在交易所交易或用於交易時，它可能不是證券。 Ripple 被命令支付 1.25 億美元的罰款，但 SEC 正在對該決定提出上訴，在正常情況下，這將使雙方在法庭上再纏上幾年。

But Trump's election win in November could change everything. Based on his comments on the campaign trail, he might be the most pro-crypto president in U.S. history. Plus, he already nominated pro-crypto businessman Paul Atkins to run the SEC, pending Senate confirmation, so investors are speculating that Ripple's regulatory woes might soon disappear.

但川普在 11 月的選舉勝利可能會改變一切。根據他對競選活動的評論，他可能是美國歷史上最支持加密貨幣的總統。此外，他已經提名支持加密貨幣的商人保羅·阿特金斯(Paul Atkins)掌管美國證券交易委員會(SEC)，等待參議院的確認，因此投資者猜測瑞波幣的監管困境可能很快就會消失。

That's why most of XRP's 230% gain in 2024 occurred after the Nov. 5 election.

這就是為什麼 XRP 在 2024 年 230% 的漲幅大部分發生在 11 月 5 日大選之後。

XRP could hit $4 this year

XRP 今年可能達到 4 美元

XRP's current price per token of $2.30 is still significantly below its record high of $3.40 from 2018. Nevertheless, it has a market capitalization of more than $130 billion, which makes it the fourth largest cryptocurrency in the world behind Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether.

XRP 目前每枚代幣的價格為2.30 美元，仍遠低於2018 年創下的3.40 美元的歷史新高。和Tether 的全球第四大加密貨幣。

If XRP were to rise to $4 per token this year, its market cap would be about $230 billion, based on the current circulating supply of 57 billion tokens. That's a mere fraction of Bitcoin's market cap of $1.9 trillion, and I would argue XRP actually has more utility thanks to its association with Ripple Payments.

如果 XRP 今年上漲至每個代幣 4 美元，那麼根據目前 570 億代幣的流通供應量，其市值將約為 2,300 億美元。這只是比特幣 1.9 兆美元市值的一小部分，而且我認為，由於 XRP 與 Ripple 支付的關聯，它實際上具有更多的實用性。

But here's the rub: Banks don't have to use XRP to use Ripple Payments -- they can settle transactions in fiat currencies, too. Therefore, XRP's value isn't necessarily tied to the success of the payments network for which it was designed. That means its price is heavily influenced by speculators rather than organic demand for use in bank transactions.

但問題是：銀行不必使用 XRP 來使用 Ripple 付款——它們也可以用法定貨幣結算交易。因此，XRP 的價值不一定與其設計的支付網絡的成功相關。這意味著其價格很大程度上受到投機者的影響，而不是銀行交易中使用的有機需求。

Moreover, while Ripple has been fighting the SEC since 2020, the agency actually approved dozens of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last year, giving financial advisors and institutional investors a safer, regulated way to buy it. That's part of the reason Bitcoin has such a premium valuation relative to every other cryptocurrency, including XRP.

此外，雖然 Ripple 自 2020 年以來一直與 SEC 作鬥爭，但該機構去年實際上批准了數十隻比特幣交易所交易基金，為財務顧問和機構投資者提供了更安全、受監管的購買方式。這就是比特幣相對於包括 XRP 在內的所有其他加密貨幣具有如此溢價估值的部分原因。

Therefore, while it'

因此，雖然它'