XRP 今年可能会达到 4 美元，但问题在于

加密货币市场在 2024 年表现出色，所有流通中的硬币和代币的累计价值在 12 月创下了 3.9 万亿美元的历史新高。

XRP (XRP 0.99%) had an incredible year in 2024, easily outpacing the broader cryptocurrency market with a gain of 230%. The company that created XRP (Ripple) has been locked in a battle with U.S. regulators since 2020, but investors became extremely bullish after Donald Trump's election win in November, because it appears he will lead the most pro-crypto administration in history.

XRP（XRP 0.99%）在 2024 年度过了令人难以置信的一年，以 ​​230% 的涨幅轻松超越了更广泛的加密货币市场。自 2020 年以来，创建 XRP（Ripple）的公司一直与美国监管机构展开斗争，但在唐纳德·特朗普 11 月赢得大选后，投资者变得极其乐观，因为他似乎将领导历史上最支持加密货币的政府。

XRP is trading at about $2.30 as of this writing, but can it ride that tailwind to a record high of $4 during 2025?

截至撰写本文时，XRP 的交易价格约为 2.30 美元，但它能否乘势而上，在 2025 年创下 4 美元的历史新高？

XRP was designed for Ripple's innovative payments network

XRP 专为 Ripple 的创新支付网络而设计

Not every bank around the world uses the same payments infrastructure. Some are on the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) network to transfer funds and others aren't, so it can take days to settle transactions between banks. Ripple created a unique network called Ripple Payments, formerly RippleNet, that solves that problem.

并非世界上每家银行都使用相同的支付基础设施。有些银行通过 SWIFT（全球银行间金融电信协会）网络进行资金转移，而另一些银行则不然，因此银行之间的交易结算可能需要数天时间。 Ripple 创建了一个名为 Ripple Payments（以前称为 RippleNet）的独特网络来解决这个问题。

It works with all existing infrastructure to standardize payment protocols, so that banks can talk to each other even if one uses SWIFT and the other doesn't. That means they can use Ripple Payments to cut out intermediaries and settle transfers directly, making them almost instantaneous.

它与所有现有基础设施合作，实现支付协议标准化，这样，即使一个银行使用 SWIFT 而另一个银行不使用，银行也可以相互通信。这意味着他们可以使用 Ripple Payments 来消除中间商并直接结算转账，使交易几乎是即时的。

The XRP cryptocurrency was designed to standardize each transaction. For example, a Japanese bank can send XRP to a German bank instead of sending Japanese yen, to bypass currency exchange fees and other transaction costs. The two banks can then handle their own conversions from XRP to a fiat currency of their choice.

XRP 加密货币旨在标准化每笔交易。例如，日本银行可以将 XRP 发送到德国银行，而不是发送日元，以绕过货币兑换费用和其他交易成本。然后，两家银行可以自行处理从 XRP 到他们选择的法定货币的兑换。

Therefore, unlike most cryptocurrencies, XRP has a legitimate use case that could become a source of long-term value.

因此，与大多数加密货币不同，XRP 具有合法的用例，可以成为长期价值的来源。

Lighter regulation might benefit XRP in 2025

2025 年监管放松可能有利于 XRP

XRP has a total supply of 100 billion tokens. There are 57 billion in circulation, and Ripple controls the other 43 billion, releasing some into the market each month to meet demand. Therefore, XRP is very different to a truly decentralized cryptocurrency like Bitcoin (BTC -0.07%), which has a fixed supply and isn't controlled by any individual or company.

XRP 的总供应量为 1000 亿枚。流通中有 570 亿枚，Ripple 控制着另外 430 亿枚，每月释放一些到市场以满足需求。因此，XRP 与比特币 (BTC -0.07%) 等真正去中心化的加密货币有很大不同，后者具有固定的供应量，不受任何个人或公司控制。

As a result, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Ripple in 2020, claiming the XRP token should be classified as a financial security, like a stock or a bond. Companies that issue securities must register them and operate under a strict regulatory framework, so this legal battle had dire potential consequences for Ripple's business.

因此，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）于 2020 年起诉 Ripple，声称 XRP 代币应被归类为金融证券，如股票或债券。发行证券的公司必须注册并在严格的监管框架下运营，因此这场法律战对 Ripple 的业务产生了可怕的潜在后果。

The lawsuit was partially resolved back in August, when a judge decided that XRP might only be a security in specific circumstances, such as when new supply is issued to institutions. However, it might not be a security when it's traded on exchanges or used in transactions. Ripple was ordered to pay a fine of $125 million, but the SEC is appealing the decision, which, under normal circumstances, would tie the parties up in court for several more years.

该诉讼于 8 月得到部分解决，当时法官裁定 XRP 可能仅在特定情况下才是一种证券，例如向机构发行新供应时。然而，当它在交易所交易或用于交易时，它可能不是证券。 Ripple 被责令支付 1.25 亿美元的罚款，但 SEC 正在对该决定提出上诉，在正常情况下，这将使双方在法庭上再缠上几年。

But Trump's election win in November could change everything. Based on his comments on the campaign trail, he might be the most pro-crypto president in U.S. history. Plus, he already nominated pro-crypto businessman Paul Atkins to run the SEC, pending Senate confirmation, so investors are speculating that Ripple's regulatory woes might soon disappear.

但特朗普在 11 月份的选举胜利可能会改变一切。根据他对竞选活动的评论，他可能是美国历史上最支持加密货币的总统。此外，他已经提名支持加密货币的商人保罗·阿特金斯(Paul Atkins)掌管美国证券交易委员会(SEC)，等待参议院的确认，因此投资者猜测瑞波币的监管困境可能很快就会消失。

That's why most of XRP's 230% gain in 2024 occurred after the Nov. 5 election.

这就是为什么 XRP 在 2024 年 230% 的涨幅大部分发生在 11 月 5 日大选之后。

XRP could hit $4 this year

XRP 今年可能达到 4 美元

XRP's current price per token of $2.30 is still significantly below its record high of $3.40 from 2018. Nevertheless, it has a market capitalization of more than $130 billion, which makes it the fourth largest cryptocurrency in the world behind Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether.

XRP 目前每枚代币的价格为 2.30 美元，仍远低于 2018 年创下的 3.40 美元的历史新高。尽管如此，它的市值仍超过 1300 亿美元，这使其成为仅次于比特币、以太坊和 Tether 的全球第四大加密货币。

If XRP were to rise to $4 per token this year, its market cap would be about $230 billion, based on the current circulating supply of 57 billion tokens. That's a mere fraction of Bitcoin's market cap of $1.9 trillion, and I would argue XRP actually has more utility thanks to its association with Ripple Payments.

如果今年 XRP 价格上涨至每枚 4 美元，那么根据目前 570 亿枚代币的流通供应量，其市值将约为 2300 亿美元。这只是比特币 1.9 万亿美元市值的一小部分，而且我认为，由于 XRP 与 Ripple 支付的关联，它实际上具有更多的实用性。

But here's the rub: Banks don't have to use XRP to use Ripple Payments -- they can settle transactions in fiat currencies, too. Therefore, XRP's value isn't necessarily tied to the success of the payments network for which it was designed. That means its price is heavily influenced by speculators rather than organic demand for use in bank transactions.

但问题是：银行不必使用 XRP 来使用 Ripple 支付——它们也可以用法定货币结算交易。因此，XRP 的价值不一定与其设计的支付网络的成功相关。这意味着其价格很大程度上受到投机者的影响，而不是银行交易中使用的有机需求。

Moreover, while Ripple has been fighting the SEC since 2020, the agency actually approved dozens of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last year, giving financial advisors and institutional investors a safer, regulated way to buy it. That's part of the reason Bitcoin has such a premium valuation relative to every other cryptocurrency, including XRP.

此外，虽然 Ripple 自 2020 年以来一直与 SEC 作斗争，但该机构去年实际上批准了数十只比特币交易所交易基金，为财务顾问和机构投资者提供了更安全、受监管的购买方式。这就是比特币相对于包括 XRP 在内的所有其他加密货币具有如此溢价估值的部分原因。

Therefore, while it'

因此，虽然它'