10x 研究警告比特幣價格可能跌至 55,000 美元

這項預測來自該公司的研究報告，概述了可能導致看跌情緒的十個關鍵因素。

A research firm is warning about a potential downturn in Bitcoin, with a possible drop to $55,000. Here's why.

一家研究公司警告稱，比特幣可能會下跌，價格可能跌至 55,000 美元。原因如下。

What Happened: 10x Research outlined ten crucial factors that could contribute to the bearish sentiment in its latest report.

發生了什麼事：10x Research 在其最新報告中概述了可能導致看跌情緒的十個關鍵因素。

According to the report, Bitcoin entered a downtrend on June 20, based on a trend model followed by many institutional investors.

報告稱，根據許多機構投資者遵循的趨勢模型，比特幣於 6 月 20 日進入下跌趨勢。

This technical indicator suggests that trend-following funds, also known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), might increase their short positions, especially given the current low volatility environment.

此技術指標顯示趨勢追蹤基金，也稱為商品交易顧問（CTA），可能會增加其空頭頭寸，特別是考慮到當前的低波動環境。

Adding to the bearish outlook, weekly and monthly reversal indicators are signaling a broader correction.

每周和每月的反轉指標都預示著更廣泛的調整，這加劇了看跌前景。

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) peaked in early March and has been declining despite Bitcoin maintaining levels above $60,000.

儘管比特幣維持在 60,000 美元以上的水平，但每週相對強弱指數 (RSI) 在 3 月初達到頂峰，並且一直在下降。

Similarly, the monthly Stochastic oscillator is showing patterns similar to previous multi-month peaks, such as those observed in January 2018 and May 2021.

同樣，月度隨機震盪指標顯示出與之前的多月峰值類似的模式，例如 2018 年 1 月和 2021 年 5 月觀察到的峰值。

Political factors are also playing a role in the cryptocurrency market’s uncertainty.

政治因素也在加密貨幣市場的不確定性中發揮作用。

The recent Presidential Debate has shifted the political landscape unexpectedly, which could impact the future of crypto regulation in the United States.

最近的總統辯論出乎意料地改變了政治格局，這可能會影響美國加密貨幣監管的未來。

While former President Donald Trump is considered pro-crypto, the possibility of a different Democratic candidate could lead to stricter crypto policies, which would go against the market’s expectations.

儘管前總統唐納德·川普被認為支持加密貨幣，但不同的民主黨候選人的可能性可能會導致更嚴格的加密貨幣政策，這將違背市場的預期。

The report also highlights concerns about institutional adoption. Despite the launch of Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year, the inflows have been less robust than anticipated.

該報告還強調了對機構採用的擔憂。儘管今年稍早推出了比特幣 ETF，但資金流入並未如預期強勁。

After an initial surge of $12 billion from early February to mid-March, additional inflows have slowed significantly, rising by only $2.2 billion since then.

在 2 月初至 3 月中旬最初激增 120 億美元之後，新增資金流入大幅放緩，此後僅增加了 22 億美元。

Why It Matters: The report also highlights several other potential areas of concern.

為什麼重要：該報告還強調了其他幾個潛在的關注領域。

Macroeconomic And Seasonal Factors

宏觀經濟和季節性因素

The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates remains hawkish, with inflation proving stickier than projected. This could lead to rates staying higher for longer, potentially dampening enthusiasm for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

聯準會對利率的立場仍然強硬，事實證明通膨比預期更為棘手。這可能會導致利率在較長時間內保持在較高水平，這可能會削弱人們對加密貨幣等風險資產的熱情。

Seasonal trends are another consideration.

季節性趨勢是另一個考慮因素。

Historically, the third quarter (July, August, and September) has been the weakest for Bitcoin, with average returns of just 5% over the past 13 years.

從歷史上看，第三季度（7月、8月和9月）是比特幣最弱的季度，過去13年的平均回報率僅5%。

This compares unfavorably to the second and fourth quarters, which have seen average returns of 64% and 62%, respectively.

這與第二季和第四季的平均回報率分別為 64% 和 62% 相比不利。

The report also points to stagnation in stablecoin inflows since the Bitcoin halving in April, suggesting a potential liquidity crunch in the crypto market.

該報告還指出，自 4 月比特幣減半以來，穩定幣流入停滯，這表明加密市場可能出現流動性緊縮。

Without fresh fiat inflows, the market may struggle to sustain higher prices.

如果沒有新的法定資金流入，市場可能難以維持更高的價格。

Miner Selling

礦工銷售

Mining economics are another potential pressure point.

礦業經濟是另一個潛在的壓力點。

With the average miner’s breakeven cost now around $60,000 following the halving, sustained trading below this level could force miners to liquidate their Bitcoin holdings at a loss, similar to the events following the Luna/Terra collapse in 2022.

由於減半後礦工的平均損益平衡成本約為 60,000 美元，持續低於該水準的交易可能會迫使礦工虧本清算其持有的比特幣，類似於 2022 年 Luna/Terra 崩盤後的事件。

Furthermore, the outperformance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, following hints of potential ETH ETF approvals, mirrors historical patterns where crypto assets rally into significant events but sell off once the catalyst has passed.

此外，在 ETH ETF 可能獲得批准的暗示之後，以太坊相對於比特幣的表現優於比特幣，這反映了加密資產在重大事件中反彈，但一旦催化劑過去就會遭到拋售的歷史模式。

Lastly, the report notes the impending expiration of $10 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETH/USD options on June 28. This event could lead to increased price volatility as the market adjusts to a new equilibrium.

最後，報告指出，價值 100 億美元的比特幣和以太坊 ETH/美元選擇權即將於 6 月 28 日到期。

As the cryptocurrency community grapples with these potential headwinds, all eyes are turning to upcoming industry events for further insights. One such pivotal gathering is Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event, scheduled for Nov. 19.

隨著加密貨幣社群努力應對這些潛在的不利因素，所有人都將目光轉向即將舉行的行業活動，以尋求進一步的見解。 Benzinga 定於 11 月 19 日舉辦的數位資產未來活動就是這類重要聚會之一。

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圖：Shutterstock