10x 研究警告比特币价格可能跌至 55,000 美元

这一预测来自该公司的研究报告，概述了可能导致看跌情绪的十个关键因素。

A research firm is warning about a potential downturn in Bitcoin, with a possible drop to $55,000. Here's why.

一家研究公司警告称，比特币可能会下跌，价格可能跌至 55,000 美元。原因如下。

What Happened: 10x Research outlined ten crucial factors that could contribute to the bearish sentiment in its latest report.

发生了什么：10x Research 在其最新报告中概述了可能导致看跌情绪的十个关键因素。

According to the report, Bitcoin entered a downtrend on June 20, based on a trend model followed by many institutional investors.

报告称，根据许多机构投资者遵循的趋势模型，比特币于 6 月 20 日进入下跌趋势。

This technical indicator suggests that trend-following funds, also known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), might increase their short positions, especially given the current low volatility environment.

该技术指标表明趋势跟踪基金，也称为商品交易顾问（CTA），可能会增加其空头头寸，特别是考虑到当前的低波动环境。

Adding to the bearish outlook, weekly and monthly reversal indicators are signaling a broader correction.

每周和每月的反转指标都预示着更广泛的调整，这加剧了看跌前景。

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) peaked in early March and has been declining despite Bitcoin maintaining levels above $60,000.

尽管比特币维持在 60,000 美元以上的水平，但每周相对强弱指数 (RSI) 在 3 月初达到顶峰，并且一直在下降。

Similarly, the monthly Stochastic oscillator is showing patterns similar to previous multi-month peaks, such as those observed in January 2018 and May 2021.

同样，月度随机震荡指标显示出与之前的多月峰值类似的模式，例如 2018 年 1 月和 2021 年 5 月观察到的峰值。

Political factors are also playing a role in the cryptocurrency market’s uncertainty.

政治因素也在加密货币市场的不确定性中发挥着作用。

The recent Presidential Debate has shifted the political landscape unexpectedly, which could impact the future of crypto regulation in the United States.

最近的总统辩论出人意料地改变了政治格局，这可能会影响美国加密货币监管的未来。

While former President Donald Trump is considered pro-crypto, the possibility of a different Democratic candidate could lead to stricter crypto policies, which would go against the market’s expectations.

尽管前总统唐纳德·特朗普被认为支持加密货币，但不同的民主党候选人的可能性可能会导致更严格的加密货币政策，这将违背市场的预期。

The report also highlights concerns about institutional adoption. Despite the launch of Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year, the inflows have been less robust than anticipated.

该报告还强调了对机构采用的担忧。尽管今年早些时候推出了比特币 ETF，但资金流入并未如预期强劲。

After an initial surge of $12 billion from early February to mid-March, additional inflows have slowed significantly, rising by only $2.2 billion since then.

在 2 月初至 3 月中旬最初激增 120 亿美元之后，新增资金流入大幅放缓，此后仅增加了 22 亿美元。

Why It Matters: The report also highlights several other potential areas of concern.

为什么重要：该报告还强调了其他几个潜在的关注领域。

Macroeconomic And Seasonal Factors

宏观经济和季节性因素

The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates remains hawkish, with inflation proving stickier than projected. This could lead to rates staying higher for longer, potentially dampening enthusiasm for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

美联储对利率的立场仍然强硬，事实证明通胀比预期更加粘性。这可能会导致利率在较长时间内保持较高水平，从而可能削弱人们对加密货币等风险资产的热情。

Seasonal trends are another consideration.

季节性趋势是另一个考虑因素。

Historically, the third quarter (July, August, and September) has been the weakest for Bitcoin, with average returns of just 5% over the past 13 years.

从历史上看，第三季度（7月、8月和9月）是比特币最弱的季度，过去13年的平均回报率仅为5%。

This compares unfavorably to the second and fourth quarters, which have seen average returns of 64% and 62%, respectively.

这与第二季度和第四季度的平均回报率分别为 64% 和 62% 相比不利。

The report also points to stagnation in stablecoin inflows since the Bitcoin halving in April, suggesting a potential liquidity crunch in the crypto market.

该报告还指出，自 4 月份比特币减半以来，稳定币流入停滞，这表明加密市场可能出现流动性紧缩。

Without fresh fiat inflows, the market may struggle to sustain higher prices.

如果没有新的法定资金流入，市场可能难以维持更高的价格。

Miner Selling

矿工销售

Mining economics are another potential pressure point.

矿业经济是另一个潜在的压力点。

With the average miner’s breakeven cost now around $60,000 following the halving, sustained trading below this level could force miners to liquidate their Bitcoin holdings at a loss, similar to the events following the Luna/Terra collapse in 2022.

由于减半后矿工的平均盈亏平衡成本约为 60,000 美元，持续低于该水平的交易可能会迫使矿工亏本清算其持有的比特币，类似于 2022 年 Luna/Terra 崩盘后的事件。

Furthermore, the outperformance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, following hints of potential ETH ETF approvals, mirrors historical patterns where crypto assets rally into significant events but sell off once the catalyst has passed.

此外，在 ETH ETF 可能获得批准的暗示之后，以太坊相对于比特币的表现优于比特币，这反映了加密资产在重大事件中反弹，但一旦催化剂过去就会遭到抛售的历史模式。

Lastly, the report notes the impending expiration of $10 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETH/USD options on June 28. This event could lead to increased price volatility as the market adjusts to a new equilibrium.

最后，报告指出，价值 100 亿美元的比特币和以太坊 ETH/美元期权即将于 6 月 28 日到期。随着市场调整到新的平衡，这一事件可能会导致价格波动加剧。

As the cryptocurrency community grapples with these potential headwinds, all eyes are turning to upcoming industry events for further insights. One such pivotal gathering is Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event, scheduled for Nov. 19.

随着加密货币社区努力应对这些潜在的不利因素，所有人都将目光转向即将举行的行业活动，以寻求进一步的见解。 Benzinga 定于 11 月 19 日举办的数字资产未来活动就是此类重要聚会之一。

Image: Shutterstock

图片：Shutterstock