沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett

沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）在1998年在佛羅里達州的一間充滿商務學生的教室裡，日本對他作為投資者沒有意義。

In 1998, at the peak of Japan’s Lost Decade, billionaire investor Warren Buffett told a classroom full of business students in Florida that the country didn’t make sense to him.

1998年，在日本損失十年的頂峰時，億萬富翁投資者沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）告訴一間充滿佛羅里達大學商務專業學生的教室，該國對他沒有意義。

Back then, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:) could borrow for ten years at just 1% in Japan, and all he needed to do was beat that rate to profit.

那時，伯克希爾·海瑟薇（Berkshire Hathaway）（紐約證券交易所：:)在日本只有1％的借入十年，而他所需要做的就是擊敗這一利率來獲利。

“So far, I haven’t found anything,” Warren told them. “Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity. But as long as money is 1%, I’ll keep looking.” That was his take during Japan’s dead economy era.

“到目前為止，我還沒有找到任何東西，”沃倫告訴他們。 “日本公司的股權收益很低。但是，只要錢為1％，我就會繼續尋找。”那是他在日本死去的經濟時代的看法。

But now in 2025, at the age of 93, the billionaire investor isn’t just looking—he’s buried deep with $23.5 billion locked in five Japanese trading giants while cutting his exposure to the United States.

但是現在在2025年，億萬富翁投資者不僅在尋找 - 他的深處被埋葬在五個日本貿易巨頭，同時削減了他對美國的敞口。

The billionaire investor made those comments during Japan’s Lost Decade, when the Bank of Japan kept interest rates near zero to fight off long-term economic slowdown. Money was cheap, but Buffett wasn’t impressed. He didn’t want to deal with the risk of investing in companies with weak earnings.

億萬富翁投資者在日本損失的十年中發表了這些評論，當時日本銀行將利率接近零以抵抗長期經濟放緩。錢很便宜，但巴菲特並沒有留下深刻的印象。他不想應對收入較弱的公司投資的風險。

And he wasn’t ready to hedge currency or gamble on the yen. His investment style followed Benjamin Graham’s “margin of safety” idea. For him, it wasn’t about how cheap the loans were—it was about how bad the returns were.

而且他還沒有準備好對沖貨幣或日元上賭博。他的投資風格遵循本傑明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）的“安全水平”想法。對他來說，這並不是關於貸款的便宜，而是關於回報有多糟糕。

“If you’re in a lousy business for a long time, you’re going to get a lousy result,” Buffett said later that day. For him, the math didn’t work in Japan.

巴菲特當天晚些時候說：“如果您長期從事糟糕的業務，您將獲得糟糕的結果。”對他來說，數學在日本沒有工作。

Fast forward to today, and Buffett has done a full 180. This year, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:) reported that it now owns nearly 10% in each of five Japanese trading firms—Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo.

快進到今天，巴菲特已經完成了整個180。

That level of ownership in a foreign country is rare for Buffett, but it shows where he’s placing his bet now. Buffett first began buying into these trading houses in 2019, but the world found out in 2020—on Buffett’s 90th birthday.

對於巴菲特來說，在一個國外的所有權水平很少，但它表明他現在下注的位置。巴菲特於2019年首次開始購買這些交易房，但全世界於2020年發現了巴菲特誕辰90週年。

He picked the firms because they act like diversified machines, touching sectors from energy and shipping to retail and food. In other words, they look a lot like Berkshire itself. What drew him in? Reliable dividends, strong cash flow, and tight spending.

他之所以選擇這些公司，是因為它們像多元化的機器一樣，從能源和運輸到零售和食物的領域。換句話說，它們看起來很像伯克希爾本身。是什麼吸引了他？可靠的股息，強勁的現金流量和緊張的支出。

And the same low rates that turned him off in 1998 are now helping him lock in profits. Buffett financed the move by selling yen-denominated debt—cheap loans in Japan’s weak currency—and used the money to buy companies paying solid returns.

現在，1998年將他拒之門外的低比率正在幫助他鎖定利潤。巴菲特通過出售日元計時的債務（日本薄弱的貨幣貸款），並利用這筆錢購買了支付可靠的收益的公司來資助這一舉動。

In 2024, Buffett wrote to shareholders that he’d gotten permission from the five companies to go past Japan’s usual 10% ceiling, something few foreign investors are allowed to do. At the end of the year, the total value of his holdings in the five firms was $23.5 billion, and he had only paid $13.8 billion for them.

巴菲特在2024年寫信給股東，他獲得了五家公司的許可，以超過日本通常的10％上限，這是允許外國投資者做的。到年底，他在五家公司的股份總價值為235億美元，他只為他們支付了138億美元。

That’s a profit of nearly $10 billion, straight off the playbook Buffett used to run in the U.S. But he wasn’t wrong to be cautious before. Currency risk is still a threat. The carry trade—borrowing cheap yen and investing it elsewhere—has collapsed before.

這是一筆近100億美元的利潤，直接從曾經在美國運行的劇本巴菲特（Buffett）出發，但他以前並沒有謹慎。貨幣風險仍然是威脅。貨運貿易（借入便宜的日元並在其他地方投資）之前已經崩潰了。

Between 2022 and 2023, U.S. Treasury yields spiked, the yen surged, and investors panicked. That sudden wave caused serious losses across Asian stock markets and currencies.

在2022年至2023年之間，美國財政部產生了飆升，日元飆升，投資者驚慌失措。突然的浪潮在亞洲股市和貨幣上造成了嚴重的損失。

Now, the Bank of Japan has even more pressure. Inflation expectations in Japan jumped again over the last three months. A BOJ survey released on Friday showed 86.7% of households now believe prices will go up in the next year.

現在，日本銀行的壓力更大。在過去的三個月中，日本的通貨膨脹期望再次躍升。週五發布的BOJ調查顯示，現在有86.7％的家庭認為價格將在明年上漲。

That’s the highest number since June 2024, and up from 85.7% in December. The same data showed Japanese companies are finally raising wages and prices—two things the central bank has been trying to trigger for years.

這是自2024年6月以來的最高數字，而12月的85.7％。同樣的數據表明，日本公司終於提高了工資和價格 - 央行多年來一直試圖觸發的兩種事情。

The BOJ had been leaning toward raising rates. All the signs are there. Wages are up. Prices are climbing. And inflation expectations keep pushing higher. That’s the kind of thing that normally leads to hikes.

棚屋一直傾向於提高利率。所有的跡像都在那裡。工資上升。價格正在攀升。通貨膨脹期望不斷提高。那是通常導致遠足的事情。

But for now, interest rates in Japan are still low. And Buffett’s still collecting dividends off debt that costs next to nothing. He passed on Japan once. But this time, he’s not walking away.

但是目前，日本的利率仍然很低。巴菲特仍在收集股息，這幾乎一無所有。他曾經在日本過世。但是這次，他不是走開。