一個動蕩的交易會議隱約為20.2億美元的比特幣[BTC]期權和2.8億美元的以太坊[ETH]期權將今天到期。

這些高風險到期歷史上一直是突然價格波動的催化劑，尤其是在開放興趣和情感指標表現出明顯差異時。

A volatile trading session looms as $2.02 billion in Bitcoin [BTC] options and $280 million in Ethereum [ETH] options are set to expire today.

一個動蕩的交易會議隱約為20.2億美元的比特幣[BTC]期權和2.8億美元的以太坊[ETH]期權將今天到期。

These high-stakes expiries have historically acted as catalysts for sudden price swings, especially when Open Interest and sentiment indicators show significant divergence.

這些高風險到期歷史上一直是突然價格波動的催化劑，尤其是在開放興趣和情感指標表現出明顯差異時。

With traders aggressively repositioning to protect capital or maximize gains, both BTC and ETH face heightened intraday risk.

隨著貿易商積極重新定位以保護資本或最大化收益，BTC和ETH都面臨日內風險的增強。

As expiry pressure intensifies, the market’s reaction may set the tone for the weekend and possibly the broader short-term trend.

隨著到期壓力的加劇，市場的反應可能為周末和更廣泛的短期趨勢定下基調。

BTC options and potential scenarios

BTC選項和潛在方案

Bitcoin traded at $84,493.50, down 0.34% at press time. Meanwhile, Max Pain hovered near $90,000, per Coinglass, suggesting an upward pull as market makers aimed to minimize payouts.

比特幣的交易價格為84,493.50美元，在發稿時下跌0.34％。同時，Max Pain徘徊在每套塗層中，徘徊在90,000美元左右，這表明營銷商旨在最大程度地減少支出。

Furthermore, Open Interest climbed to $54.73 billion, marking a 1.81% increase, which suggests stronger participation leading into the expiry.

此外，開放興趣攀升至547.3億美元，標誌增長了1.81％，這表明參與到了到期。

Although sentiment remained divided, smart money appeared confident. MarketProphet data showed crowd sentiment at -0.20, revealing slight pessimism from retail traders.

儘管情緒仍然分歧，但聰明的錢似乎很自信。 MarketProphet的數據顯示，人群情緒為-0.20，揭示了零售商人的悲觀情緒。

However, smart money sentiment was firmly positive at 0.92, implying that institutional players expected an upward move.

但是，聰明的金錢情緒在0.92處牢固地積極，這意味著機構參與者期望向上移動。

Additionally, liquidation data reflected an imbalance—$1 million in long positions have been flushed, compared to just $278.86K in shorts, hinting at over-leveraged longs exposed to further downside if momentum stalls.

此外，清算數據反映了不平衡 - 長位置的100萬美元已經沖洗掉了，而短褲僅為278.86k美元，暗示如果動量失速，則表明過度槓桿性的渴望是進一步的下跌。

Ethereum’s position: Lower value, similar volatility?

以太坊的位置：較低的價值，相似的波動率？

Ethereum traded at $1,581.17, slipping 1.54% at press time. That placed ETH just under its Max Pain mark of $1,600, hinting at price magnetism toward that level.

以太坊的交易價格為1,581.17美元，發稿時下跌1.54％。這使ETH的最大痛苦標記為1,600美元，這暗示了價格磁性降低了這一水平。

However, Ethereum’s sentiment remained noticeably weaker than Bitcoin. MarketProphet gauged place crowd sentiment at -0.15 and smart money sentiment at -1.67, both reinforcing a dominant bearish outlook.

但是，以太坊的情緒比比特幣明顯弱。 MarketProphet在-0.15中將人群情緒評為-1.67的智慧貨幣情緒，都增強了佔看不見的前景。

Therefore, any bullish reversal may face resistance unless fundamentals shift quickly.

因此，除非基本面迅速變化，否則任何看漲的逆轉都可能面臨抵抗。

Additionally, on-chain positioning appeared heavy—traders and whales may avoid making strong moves until expiry dust settles.

此外，鏈上的位置顯得沉重 - 交易者和鯨魚可能避免採取強大的動作，直到到期塵埃落定為止。

Market sentiment and whale activity: What’s priced in?

市場情緒和鯨魚活動：什麼價格？

Whale behavior and on-chain flows offer more context for today’s volatility. Over the past week, 15,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges.

鯨魚行為和鍊鍊流動為當今的波動提供了更多背景。在過去的一周中，從交易所撤回了15,000個BTC。

This accumulation trend aligns with smart money’s bullish stance and implies that major holders expect strength following the expiry.

這種積累趨勢與Smart Money的看漲立場保持一致，這意味著主要持有人期望在到期後的力量。

Therefore, BTC may find post-expiry stability or even upside traction if broader sentiment remains constructive.

因此，如果更廣泛的情緒保持建設性，BTC可能會發現呼吸後穩定性甚至上升牽引力。

Ethereum, on the other hand, signals a completely different narrative.

另一方面，以太坊標誌著完全不同的敘述。

In just six days, Galaxy Digital deposited 62,181 ETH worth $99.46 million to exchanges, including a $20.09 million inflow to Binance just eight hours ago.

在短短六天內，Galaxy Digital存入了62,181 ETH，價值9,946萬美元進行交流，其中包括八個小時前的20090萬美元流入到二手資金。

Such inflows often precede sell pressure or hedging behavior, especially when paired with bearish sentiment.

這種流入通常在出售壓力或對沖行為之前，尤其是與看跌情緒搭配時。

This activity amplifies downside risk and creates a challenging environment for ETH unless strong demand re-emerges quickly.

這項活動擴大了下行風險，除非迅速重新出現，否則ETH為ETH創造了一個具有挑戰性的環境。

Therefore, while Bitcoin flashes early signs of resilience, Ethereum may be entering a more volatile phase—one heavily shaped by its expiry dynamics and whale flows.

因此，儘管比特幣閃爍著彈性的早期跡象，但以太坊可能會進入一個更揮發性的階段，這是由於其到期的動力學和鯨魚流量而造成的。